Philip Morris International Inc. (NYSE:PM) Q2 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Gaurav Jain: Sure. Thank you. And the second question I have is on this EU heated tobacco flavor ban. And you mentioned that there could be some volatility. Now, the experience in California has been pretty bad for – post the menthol cigarette ban, and that only 70% of the menthol smoker seems to have been retained in the cigarette market. So, like, what is the precedence? Is there any precedence of a flavored heated tobacco ban anywhere which helps you form the view that the impact will be quite minimal?

Emmanuel Babeau: Yes, there is, Gaurav. So, I will take two examples, one in Europe when there was the menthol – the flavor ban in May 2020, where it had minimal impact on the combustible business, very, very small. So, that’s one illustration. And the other one is actually – because we talk about growing products. The other one here is the ban on flavor in California that impacted ZYN at the end of 2022. And there was a few weeks with a blip on the volume. And then the momentum came back on non-flavored product actually with even more intensity and blip has been swallowed, and you don’t see today any impact of this ban. So, I think here you have two element experiences that show that this is having minimum impact. And again, we’re comparing in California with growing a category, which maybe is more appropriate, but referring to combustible in Europe in May 2020, the impact was de minimis.

Gaurav Jain: Okay, sure. Thank you so much.

Operator: We’ll take our next question from Bonnie Herzog with Goldman Sachs. Your line is now open.

Bonnie Herzog: All right, thank you. Hi, Emmanuel. I wanted to circle back to your guidance with just maybe a quick follow-on question. Your full-year guidance implies, I guess, more riding on Q4. So, just hoping you could help us understand maybe your level of conviction and or visibility that your business really will strengthen so much later this year. And then, I know it’s early, and I don’t expect you to guide next year, but is there anything we should think about that you’re investing in this year that really could position you for even greater growth next year and beyond?

Emmanuel Babeau: Yes. So, Bonnie, trying to be back on H2, I think you see it already in Q2. I mean, the momentum behind IQOS is there. We see it. We estimate 1.4 million user growth in Q2. That’s an excellent number. We see in-market sales going up. We know that there is seasonality, but it doesn’t mean that the consumer offtake is going to decrease. There is more launch of ILUMA and some of them that happened in the end of H1 that is going to contribute as well in the second part of the year. So, we see very robust momentum there. We see the work that we’ve been doing and as we said, the highest intensity of price increase has happened in Q2, is going to be lower in H2. And we’ve been defending our market share well in a market that is resilient.

And we may discuss why CC is so resilient, but the fact is that combustible is proving to be resilient in many geographies. And then there is a ZYN moment, clearly a ZYN momentum, which we’re not saying we’re going to keep growing at 50%, of course, but clearly we expect momentum to continue super nicely on ZYN and starting Q4 that will also contribute to the organic growth. But in any case, it’s going to fully contribute to adjusted EPS growth, excluding forex. So, all that give us the confidence that we are set for a very, very good and very strong H2 in terms of performance. Now, when we look towards 2024, we believe that the growth drivers are going to stay the same. So, IQOS, with of course the launch in Q2 in the US, but let’s be clear, it’s going to be the beginning.