So, that’s one. So, the second is that the more introductions of new entries rightly will not happen before €˜25 — €˜24, €˜25 in the U.S. at least. Will depend if EUA will still be available, which will depend if we will be in a state of emergency or not for EUA. But if we will not be in a state of emergency, which could be like a scenario, there will be no EUAs, we don’t see, in €˜24, any introduction, actually we see in €˜25 the introductions. The introductions though, also, as always, are increasing the overall cost. So, fact, it’s what also is driving. We are dropping markets share but we are increasing the volume. The last is are we dropping the market share aggressively enough or are we, let’s say, very optimistic in dropping.
The assumption here it is that we are the only one, we have right now for years presence in the market with a label that is extremely strong with 86% clinical efficacy against hospitalization and against deaths — high action against deaths. So, it’s very difficult for anyone to reproduce this data right now, The studies will run forever likely and will be very large. So, very, very difficult to reproduce something like that. So as a result, given that for years, we will be among — we will be basically the lion market share, plus the excellent profile, the loyalty that will be developed. All of that are telling us that it is very reasonable with — to maintain very high market share, you can see that in first-in-class and it’s in every treatment, from cancer to that compared to the second and third, it’s easy to maintain 60%, 70% of the relevant conditions.
Now that we have all these advantages, we think maintaining at 70%, 75%, I think, is reasonable. Of course, we’ll have to see. Next question, please.
Operator: Our next question will come from Chris Shibutani with Goldman Sachs.
Chris Shibutani: Two questions, one on Paxlovid cross-currents there between China in terms of the million doses that you described for your first fiscal quarter and a potential transition into a private market in China, and then, U.S. where a similar transition will occur to the commercial. Can you help at all frame what you think the relative contributions could look like in €˜23 and how that could progress? And then in particular for the COVID franchise products, can you share any early color on the discussions or engagement that you’re having with payers? What kind of dynamics? Any color there would be helpful, particularly in the broader context of a global pharmaceutical opportunity with many different therapeutics that will be on their list of budget items, obesity, Alzheimer’s, et cetera. So, any color on the discussions with payers would be helpful.
Dr. Albert Bourla: Thank you. Angela?
Angela Hwang: So I think for Paxlovid, again, the time period, the way to think about it is in two time periods from now until April, which is a reimbursed market, which gives us access to both public as well as private channels, and then after April, private channels only. As you heard, we have included in sour guidance what we believe we can do in the first three months of this year. But given the fact that the back half of the year, we will — it’s going to be highly uncertain. It will be a very dynamic market. We’ll continue to make sure that we have supply, but we’ll have to just wait and see what happens there. On the side of U.S., similarly, we will be transitioning this year. We will have a year where some of the revenue will be made through the completion of contracts that we made with the U.S. government in 2022.
And then part of the year, the revenues will come from the commercialization of Paxlovid. So, you’re going to see that play through — both of those dynamics play through. And then I think you had one more question.
Dr. Albert Bourla: Yes, the payers — what is the reaction with the vaccine or…
