PepsiCo, Inc. (NASDAQ:PEP) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

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Hugh Johnston: Yes, Robert, it’s Hugh. Let me try to take a shot at that. Look, obviously, 6% revenue growth in Consumer Products is still a very healthy growth rate, and we certainly feel good about that as the guide. Would we expect volumes to be down? Perhaps they’ll be down a little bit. Let’s see how the year plays out. Right now, the consumer is still quite good. But we also have to plan for multiple scenarios. And in the back half of the year, given interest rates are as high as they are, it wouldn’t be shocking if there were a mild recession in the U.S. and in some of our developed markets. We’ve taken actions in terms of productivity to make sure in a recessionary environment, we’re still well insulated to hit our numbers.

But we’ve got to plan the business such that with interest rates as high as they are, you could certainly see some impact over time on the top line. So that’s kind of the way that we’re thinking about this one. And then let’s see how the year plays out. If the year plays out better, then that’s great. We’ll invest back. And I think we’ll — everybody will be happy with that outcome.

Ramon Laguarta: Yes. I think we’ve discussed in previous conversations. The way we do these processes, we have multiple scenarios of things that could happen actually the last few years, if we’ve learned something is that we should expect the unexpected. So all these scenarios, we feel good about delivering our guidance in any of those scenarios. Now the role of each one of our business unit leaders is to beat the plan. So that’s how we’re starting the year and how we will play the year.

Operator: Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from Nik Modi with RBC. Your line is open.

Nik Modi: Thank you. Good morning everyone. Two quick questions. First, Hugh, on China and just the re-opening. Just wanted to get your thoughts on how we should be thinking about some of the implications and if it’s been kind of contemplated in your guidance. I mean, obviously, oil and gas pricing could — is the obvious. But is there anything else we should be thinking about? And then Ramon, I wanted to ask kind of how perhaps you close things about various substrates within the Frito-Lay business. So you think about cauliflower rice, I mean, Frito-Lay dominates corn and potato. And just given long-term, consumers seem to be kind of adopting some of these new substrates. Just wanted to understand the plants PepsiCo has in terms of capacity build? Or if you don’t think these substrates are actually going to be meaningful in the future? Thanks.

Ramon Laguarta: Yes. I mean you mistake that. I’ll cover the China consumer business well. I think, listen, China, obviously, we’re seeing the consumer happy to be free kind of. And the consumer will obviously spend more. I think that’s obvious. So there is an opportunity in reassessing the China demand and what it means for all the businesses in that country. So obviously, we have two meaningful businesses, snacks and beverages. And we’ll — I think we’ll benefit from that increased demand. Will it change the PepsiCo growth? No, I think that it’s an important market, but not to that extent. Now with regards to the Frito-Lay innovation portfolio beyond our potatoes, our corn or wheat, we have already large businesses in rice snacks, for example, you think about the Quaker snacks.

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