PennyMac Financial Services, Inc. (NYSE:PFSI) Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

PennyMac Financial Services, Inc. (NYSE:PFSI) Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript February 1, 2024

PennyMac Financial Services, Inc. isn’t one of the 30 most popular stocks among hedge funds at the end of the third quarter (see the details here).

Operator: Good afternoon, and welcome to PennyMac Financial Services, Inc.’s Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2023 Earnings Call. Additional earnings materials, including presentation slides that will be referred to in this call are available on PennyMac Financial’s website at pfsi.pennymac.com. Before we begin, let me remind you that this call may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to certain risks identified on Slide 2 of the earnings presentation that could cause the Company’s actual results to differ materially as well as non-GAAP measures that have been reconciled to their GAAP equivalent in the earnings materials. I’d now like to introduce David Spector; PennyMac Financial’s Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and Dan Perotti; PennyMac’s Financial’s Chief Financial Officer. Gentlemen, I’ll turn the call over to you.

David Spector: Thank you, operator. Good afternoon, and thank you to everyone for participating in our fourth quarter earnings call. PFSI reported a net loss of $37 million and an annualized return on equity of negative 4% in the fourth quarter. These results included a nonrecurring accrual of $158 million relating to our long-standing arbitration with Black Knight, and $76 million of net fair value declines on MSRs and hedges, given significant interest rate volatility during the quarter. Excluding the impact of these items, performance was very strong with an annualized operating return on equity of 15% and marking the culmination of another outstanding year for the company and highlighting the strength of our balanced business model.

2023 was one of the more challenging origination markets in recent history, with industry volumes down approximately 40% from 2022, and unit originations at their lowest level since 1990. However, PennyMac through its multichannel production platform generated $69 million of production pretax income and produced nearly $100 billion in UPB of mortgage loans, down only 9% from 2022. This demonstrates both our strong access to the purchase market and our ability to profitably support our customers and business partners. These production volumes continue to drive the organic growth of our servicing portfolio which ended the year with more than 2.4 million customers and over $600 billion in UPB, up 10% from the end of last year. Our servicing business generated $268 million in pretax income, excluding the Black Knight accrual.

As the second largest producer of mortgage loans in the country and the fifth largest servicer, we have achieved significant scale in our mortgage banking platform with the capacity for continued growth and profitability in the years to come. This management team’s ability to effectively manage capital has always been a competitive advantage for PFSI, and I am extraordinarily proud of the work we accomplished in 2023. Not only did we return more than $110 million to stockholders through share repurchases and dividends, we took meaningful steps to further strengthen the balance sheet, issuing more than $1.5 billion in new long-term debt at attractive terms and redeeming $875 million in debt with upcoming maturities. I would like to provide a brief update on our long-standing litigation with Black Knight as outlined on Slide 5 of our earnings presentation.

In January, the arbitrator issued a final award of $150 million plus interest to Black Knight, down from the interim award determined in November. PFSI recorded the related expense accrual in the fourth quarter, as previously noted. While we disagree with the ruling, we are very pleased with the arbitrator’s affirmation that SSC remains our own proprietary technology as well as providing PennyMac the ability to utilize it as we see fit to benefit our customers and stakeholders. Since, we launched the system in 2019, it has performed extremely well, meaningfully enhancing our capabilities while helping to drive down costs. With this technology now free and clear of any restrictions on use or development, we believe there is potential for additional opportunities for the company and stakeholders over time.

Turning now to the origination market, we believe the overall market troughed in 2023 as mortgage rates have declined from their recent highs, and anticipated future rate cuts have increased third-party estimates for industry originations in 2024 to approximately $2 trillion. Much of this anticipated growth is based on expectations for interest rate reductions later on in the year, and we expect volume in the loan origination market to remain seasonally low in the first quarter of 2024 before moving into the spring and summer home-buying season. With a balanced business model and scale in both production and servicing, we remain very well positioned if interest rates remain high or decline further. As you can see on Slide 7 of the earnings presentation, operating returns on equity have increased throughout 2023, returning to the double digits and consistent with our goals at the beginning of the year.

The Servicing segment continues to drive earnings and operating pretax income has improved in recent quarters due to the growth in the size of PFSI’s own portfolio and increased earnings from placement fees on custodial balances due to higher short-term rates. Operating expenses remain low given our growing operational scale and continued low delinquencies. In production, while the market is expected to remain competitive, margins have improved over the course of 2023, and we estimate we have gained a considerable amount of market share, especially in the core spanner and Broker Direct channels, which provides strong access to the purchase market. As we add these higher note rate mortgages to our portfolio, we are creating additional opportunities for our consumer direct business to offer our customers a new lower rate mortgage when interest rates do decline.

At year-end, 22% of our servicing portfolio consisted of mortgages with note rates in excess of 5%. In the fourth quarter, production pretax income was $39 million. And while we expect some seasonality in the first quarter, we expect to build on this profitability in future quarters as the origination market improves. As I said earlier, I am extraordinarily proud of what we accomplished in 2023, and I am even more excited about PennyMac Financial’s future. Our long track record of strong operational and financial performance is unique in the mortgage industry and has been driven by the resilience of our balanced business model with industry-leading positions in both production and servicing as well as our strong capital and risk management disciplines.

I believe we are the best positioned company in the industry with a fully scaled balanced business model, proprietary industry-leading technology, a strong balance sheet and a growing number of servicing customers that stand to benefit from the products and services we offer to fulfill their home ownership needs. I will now turn it over to Dan, who will review the drivers of PFSI’s fourth quarter financial performance.

Dan Perotti: Thank you, David. PFSI reported a net loss of $37 million in the fourth quarter or negative $0.74 in earnings per share for an annualized ROE of negative 4%. As David mentioned, these results include a nonrecurring expense accrual of $158 million before income taxes, or $2.20 per diluted share after income taxes, related to the final award of our long-standing arbitration with Black Knight. PFSI’s Board of Directors also declared a fourth quarter cash dividend of $0.20 per share. Book value per share was $70.52, down from the end of the prior quarter, primarily due to the net loss. Turning to our production segment. Pretax income was $39 million, up from $25 million in the prior quarter. Total acquisition and origination volume were $26.7 billion in unpaid principal balance, up 6% from the prior quarter despite a decrease of more than 20% in the size of the origination market from the prior quarter.

$24.2 billion was for PFSI’s own account, and $2.5 billion was fee-based fulfillment activity for PMT. PennyMac maintained its dominant position in correspondent lending, with total acquisitions of $23.6 billion in the fourth quarter and margins similar to levels reported last quarter. We estimate that in 2023, PennyMac represented more than 22% market share in correspondent lending, up from 15% in 2022. We attribute this market share growth not only to the retreat of certain market participants, but also to our consistency and execution and industry-leading technology. Acquisitions in January are expected to total approximately $6.6 billion, and locks are expected to total $6.9 billion. In Broker Direct, we see strong trends and continued growth in market share as we position PennyMac as a strong alternative to the channel leaders.

Both locks and fundings for the quarter were down in the single-digit percentages from last quarter, less than the overall market, and margins were down due to higher levels of fallout as mortgage interest rates declined. The number of approved brokers at year-end was over 3,800, up 42% from the end of the prior year, and we estimate that we represented approximately 3.6% of originations in the channel in 2023. In January, broker direct originations were $600 million and locks were $1 billion. In Consumer Direct, volumes remain low, but as David talked about, we remain well positioned given the number of customers we have added to the portfolio with higher mortgage rates. Production expenses net of loan origination expense were 8% lower than the prior quarter, primarily due to lower compensation accruals related to financial performance.

Turning to servicing. The Servicing segment recorded a pretax loss of $96 million, primarily driven by the nonrecurring expense accrual mentioned earlier. Excluding this accrual, servicing contributed $63 million to pretax income, down from $101 million in the prior quarter, primarily due to higher net MSR valuation-related declines. Excluding valuation-related changes in nonrecurring items, servicing had very strong results with pretax contribution of $144 million or 9.6 basis points of average servicing portfolio UPB, up from $120 million or 8.6 basis points in the prior quarter. Loan servicing fees were up from the prior quarter, primarily due to growth in PFSI’s owned portfolio, as PFSI has been acquiring a larger portion of the conventional correspondent production in recent periods.

Operating expenses declined also due to lower compensation accruals related to PFSI’s financial performance. As expected, earnings on custodial balances and deposits and other income decreased $10 million from the prior quarter as balances declined due to seasonal property tax payments. Realization of MSR cash flows decreased $14 million from the prior quarter due to higher average interest rates for the majority of the quarter. EBO income remained relatively unchanged, and we continue to expect its contribution will remain low for the next few quarters, while interest expense increased from the prior quarter due to higher average balances of debt outstanding. The fair value of PFSI’s MSR decreased by $371 million during the quarter, driven by a decline in mortgage rates, which drove expectations for increased prepayment activity in the future.

Hedging gains were $295 million, offsetting 80% of the decline in the MSR fair values. The net impact of MSR and hedge fair value changes on PFSI’s pretax income was negative $76 million, and the impact on earnings per share was negative $1.05. The Investment Management segment contributed $1.9 million to pretax income during the quarter, and assets under management were unchanged from the end of the prior quarter. Finally, on capital. Last quarter, we noted the October issuance of a 5-year $125 million term loan secured by Ginnie Mae MSRs and servicing advances. In December, we successfully raised $750 million in 6-year unsecured senior notes and subsequently retired $875 million of secured term notes due in 2025. We’ll now open it up for questions.

Operator?

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Q&A Session

Operator: [Operator Instructions] We’ll take our first question today from the line of Kevin Barker with Piper Sandler.

Kevin Barker: I just wanted to follow up on your comments about SSE and with the technology being free and clear from any restrictions. You also made the quote I believe there’s a potential for additional opportunities and benefits for the Company. Could you maybe expound upon what you can do with this technology, whether it’s utilized within PennyMac or maybe expand upon the use of that technology within PennyMac or outside of PennyMac? Thank you.

David Spector: Sure, Kevin. First of all, SSE has been a great system for us as a servicer. We adopted it at the end of 2019. We were tested very, not tested, but we put it to use with COVID in 2020, and it performed very, very well in terms of being able to meet the needs of our borrowers and offering forbearances and modifications. And it’s a system that we believe gives us a tremendous amount of competitive advantage. It’s cloud-based, and it’s in it with full integration from front end, back end and middleware components. Customers are able to access our advanced web, mobile and IVR solutions easily with high satisfaction rates. It’s got unique workflow attached to it with state-of-the-art technology. And look, I think it gives us a competitive advantage in the marketplace.

And so in and of itself, it’s something that I think we continue to see our servicing expenses get driven down since we adopted it, and it’s something that has been meaningful to us in our evolution as a top 5 servicer. As it pertains to unfortunate litigation, look, we’re very happy for the lawsuit to be in the rearview mirror. And while I disagree with the final ruling, suffice it to say, they’re really clearly had more positive and negative, we were happy to retain ownership of our servicing system. We own SSE free and clear to use and as we see fit. In terms of other opportunities, it’s been 60 days since the really came out and we’ve been working to get this — to really get this behind it. I’ve been very encouraged by opportunities that presented themselves and people approaching us, and we’re beginning the exploration and evaluation process.

We don’t feel any hurry to do something. We want to do something that’s best for all stakeholders. But suffice it to say, it’s something that is very unique in the industry and gives us a real advantage.

Kevin Barker: And then you produced a 15% operating return on equity this quarter. It seems like you have quite a bit of momentum going into 2024, not only within the origination channel, but also on the servicing side. Do you feel that the 15% ROE is the run rate now, and there is potential for significant upside in ’24, particularly if we were to see a bigger origination market?

David Spector: Look, I think that, as you pointed out, the operating ROE was 15% in the fourth quarter, which was up 13% from the third quarter. I’m expecting us to continue to build on the core Q4 results. There’s going to be some seasonality in the first quarter, but the servicing has just been unbelievable for us. Profitability continues to remain strong in this high interest rate environment. The consumer is continuing to perform and stay current. We have continuing higher servicing fees and the growth in our own portfolio. Look, on the production side, we were very profitable in ’23. As I said, we were more profitable in ’23 than we were in ’22 on the production side. And given the trends I’m seeing in margins first and foremost, but then also trends that we’re seeing in correspond and broker direct.

I’m really encouraged that if we do see rate declines, especially in the back half of the year as the markets are projecting, and we can see our production business grows profitability.

Dan Perotti: Just to add on to that a little bit. to echo what David said, we saw those ROEs — operating ROEs increase through 2023 move upwards consistent with how — what we had hoped for, put forth at the beginning of the year where we really did see Q1 of last year as a sort of trough. It’s not necessarily going to be in a totally straight line. There is some seasonality to this business if we’re looking at Q1, although we do think there is upside, upside potential from that 15% ROE in 2024 overall, especially as you noted, if and as people expect the market becomes larger, the mortgage market.

Operator: Our next question comes from the line of Michael Kaye with Wells Fargo.

Michael Kaye: At the 2021 Investor Day, you said a 20% ROE in a more of a normalized environment? Just wondering what’s been some of the pluses and minuses since that analysis back then. I know you bought back a lot of stock during the pandemic period. It was like 20% of your share count. Correspondent broker direct are likely ahead of plan servicing doing great to consumer direct probably has pushed out the opportunity a little bit. What I’m trying to figure out is 20% is that still the right goalpost considering you just did 15% in a very challenging mortgage market?

Dan Perotti: I think the — that still is the goalpost that we have. Obviously, we’re generally striving to do 20% plus. That’s part of David’s mantra, that’s what we have our focus on. But we do think, we certainly think that 20% is achievable in a more normalized market. If we’re looking at 2024 in specific — it’s probably still under what we would consider a totally normalized market. To your point, if we’re looking at sort of the positives, what’s changed since that projection. Probably outperformed even what we expected in correspondent, especially given the market size but in terms of some of the growth of the servicing portfolio over that period of time over the total period of time is probably a little bit lighter than what we had expected just because the market has been smaller.

And then on the growth of the direct lending channels. has just been a bit more constrained because of the overall size of the market and especially the refi market in terms of consumer direct. So we still think 20% is a reasonable goal and an achievable goal. We still have our balanced business model where we have servicing as sort of the core and production on top of that, which helps drive up those overall ROEs, but that’s we think that the overall balanced business models, what led us to that 15% ROE here in the fourth quarter. We think we can continue to build on that, but 20% is still sort of our target.

Michael Kaye: Okay. I wanted to talk about the competitive landscape in correspondent, looks like things slowed down a little bit in January. And I’ve been hearing some other large nonbanks like Freedom talking about getting more competitive after raising a large amount of corporate debt. I was just looking for an update on what’s happening correspond so far this year?

David Spector: Look, I think that, we have a dominant position in correspondent. We have very deep relationships. And I would start off by saying that the market in January is going to be smaller than even in Dec. And I think that we’re seeing good activity in correspondent, specifically with builders. A lot of our share growth that in the latter part of the year is because of the activity coming out of builders where we have very deep relationships, and that’s something that really helped drove a lot of the share growth. As you know, banks have been stepping back and we’re just about at the point where I’m going to not being able to say that because they’re going to be out. Sellers are not retaining servicing. And one of the things that we’re also witnessing is there’s a flight to quality, and we’re seeing more and more sellers delivering a disproportionate amount of their loans to us.