We recently compiled a list of the David Einhorn’s Stock Portfolio: Top 10 Stocks to Buy. In this article, we are going to take a look at where PENN Entertainment, Inc. (NASDAQ:PENN) stands against the other the David Einhorn’s Top Stocks Pick.
Will the stock market rally persist heading into the year-end?
Major indices are at record highs, making it hard to predict market direction despite the Federal Reserve’s policy tweaks. Investors have pushed equities higher amid AI excitement and expected rate cuts, but momentum is waning.
Recent market swings are driven by Middle East tensions, with the S&P 500 down 1.1% in October after a 2% rise in September. Geopolitical risks and potential conflicts, like Israel and Iran, add uncertainty, pushing investors towards safe havens like gold and bonds.
READ ALSO: 7 Best Nanotech Penny Stocks to Buy and 7 Dirt Cheap Stocks to Invest In Now.
S&P Global’s Daniel Bergin warns of a dangerous economic period, comparing it to the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis:
“The betting is that the Israelis would not attack, try to attack, the nuclear facilities at this time. But a few months from now, a few weeks from now, whatever it is, Iran would have the capacity — its thought — to deliver a nuclear weapon, and that raises the stakes.”
The Fed and Chinese authorities are cutting rates to support their economies. Alexander Cousley from Russell Investments notes:
“We haven’t moved into this world where fiscal has become the dominant driver, and so that’s what we’re really looking for… we are still in this period where Chinese authorities respond to weakening data, and the thing starts to improve a little bit, and we don’t see the actual follow through.”
David Einhorn’s Market Concerns and Investment Strategy
Economic growth uncertainty in two of the world’s largest economies should be a point of concern for investors eyeing opportunities in the equity markets. David Einhorn, the legendary investor behind Greenlight Capital, was the first to raise concerns about valuations in the market early in the year.
In a letter to investors, the hedge fund manager reiterated that the stock market was fundamentally broken as investment capital did not care about valuation:
“The result is that a very small portion of trading volume today is based on strategies that try to identify which stocks are undervalued in order to buy them for an intermediate or a long-term investment period, with a view that the shares will outperform as they close the discount to fair value,” states the April ’24 letter.
David Einhorn launched Greenlight Capital at 27 with $900,000 from family and friends. He gained prominence by short-selling Allied Capital in 2002, a move validated by the SEC years later. During the Great Recession, he shorted Lehman Brothers in 2007.
Known for value investing, Einhorn now questions its viability due to market changes and the rise of passive investing. Earlier this year, he expressed concerns that value investing might be obsolete due to a broken market structure and the increasing dominance of passive investing.
This shift in market structure has led Einhorn to change his investing philosophy. Now, he focuses on companies that look cheap in value and return capital to shareholders through repurchases or dividends.
Despite changing his strategy, Einhorn has generated strong long-term returns. Greenlight has averaged annual returns of 13.1% since its launch in 1996, compared to 9.5% for the broader benchmark S&P 500. That equates to a total return of over 2,900% compared to the S&P 500’s 1,117%.
Einhorn’s solid returns over the years have come to haunt, as former Greenlight Capital analyst James Fishback sued Greenlight Capital over claims he was underpaid. In a filing to the American Arbitration Association, Fishback alleges that he was underpaid over the years he worked at the hedge fund and wants the arbitrator to award him $5 million.
Since departing to establish his own company, Fishback has consistently frustrated Einhorn, publicly debating his ex-employer on Twitter regarding his stance on Tesla’s stock and provoking him with comments about his recent achievements.
Nevertheless, Greenlight Capital lost 1.7 per cent in August, a generally volatile but positive month for the broad market. The loss cut its gain for the year to 9.1 per cent. It is not clear which investments drove last month’s loss.
Amid the mixed results, David Einhorn’s stock portfolio could offer some reprieve as it contains some stocks trading at highly discounted levels. According to Einhorn’s Greenlight Capital, undervalued stocks tend to underperform for extended periods to the extent of becoming extremely cheap.
Similarly, such stocks are well-positioned to bounce back and rally when investors note how undervalued they are, especially when other counterparts are trading at premium valuations.
Source: Pexels
Our Methodology
To compile the list of the David Einhorn Stock Portfolio: Top 10 Stocks to Buy we examined Greenlight Capital’s 13F portfolio, as of Q2 2024. The stocks are ranked in ascending order based on Greenlight Capital’s stakes in them.
At Insider Monkey, we are obsessed with the stocks that hedge funds pile into. The reason is simple: our research has shown that we can outperform the market by imitating the top stock picks of the best hedge funds. Our quarterly newsletter’s strategy selects 14 small-cap and large-cap stocks every quarter and has returned 275% since May 2014, beating its benchmark by 150 percentage points (see more details here).
PENN Entertainment, Inc. (NASDAQ:PENN)
Greenlight Capital’s Equity Stake: $98.62 Million
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 30
PENN Entertainment Inc (NASDAQ:PENN) is a consumer cyclical company that provides integrated entertainment, sports content, and casino gaming experiences. It’s one of the companies whose core business came under pressure on reduced consumer purchasing due to high interest rates.
Einhorn invested in PENN Entertainment amid investor scepticism following Penn’s challenging acquisition of Barstool Sports. At the time, he reiterated the potential of sports betting and insisted that if Penn had executed it correctly, it could have significantly boosted the company’s shares.
Nevertheless, it announced a solid second quarter in 2024, achieving an EBITDAR figure of $367 million, which exceeded the average forecasts by 8%. This achievement was fueled by superior-than-anticipated online outcomes, and the physical casino division achieved the anticipated revenue and EBITDAR figures from analysts.
PENN Entertainment Inc (NASDAQ:PENN)’s retail locations achieved strong outcomes in the latest quarter, thanks to an elite group of managers who consistently perform well across a wide range of top-tier properties. The success of ESPN Bet, the online sports betting site, has been a key growth area for PENN Entertainment. Although the site experienced a drop in its portion of the market during the second quarter of 2024, it was able to boost its profit margins in games and maintain its position in the market over the course of each quarter.
Encouraging developments for ESPN Bet include sustained gaming profit margins above 8% in the second quarter of 2024 and an enhanced selection of parlay options. These elements indicate that the platform is advancing in both operational effectiveness and the variety of its services.
PENN Entertainment Inc (NASDAQ:PENN) is investing significantly in its future expansion, with four retail expansion projects in progress. These investments and ongoing enhancements to its digital platforms are paving the way for potential expansion beginning in 2026.
Using the strong reputation of ESPN, ESPN Bet has a great chance to enhance PENN’s standing in the digital sports betting industry. In return, the company should generate significant shareholder value down the line.
As of the end of the second quarter of 2024, 30 hedge funds tracked by Insider Monkey had stakes in PENN Entertainment Inc. (NASDAQ:PENN).
Greenlight Capital stated the following regarding PENN Entertainment, Inc. (NASDAQ:PENN) in its first quarter 2024 investor letter:
“We established a new medium-sized position in PENN Entertainment, Inc. (NASDAQ:PENN) at an average price of $22.69 per share, but, for reasons discussed below, the shares fell to $18.21 by quarter-end. s referenced above, we established a medium-sized position in PENN, an operator of regional casinos. PENN’s current enterprise value is just over $4.3 billion, and based on an 8-12x multiple of free cash flow, we value their land-based casinos between $4.3 billion and $7 billion. PENN also competes in online gaming, particularly sports betting, and we believe the market ascribes a substantial negative value to that effort. To be fair, the online segment has a checkered history. In 2020, PENN acquired a minority stake of Barstool Sports, and three years later agreed to purchase the rest, for a grand total of $551 million. That acquisition was a complete failure, and the company wound up abandoning the investment. It also spent $2 billion in 2021 to acquire Score Media and Gaming to establish a better online sports betting platform. Last year, it entered into a deal with ESPN to launch and operate ESPN BET.
Successful sports betting franchises can have substantial value. DraftKings is the leader and is valued at over $20 billion. Through ESPN BET, PENN aspires to achieve top-three status in the industry. Given that the market is ascribing negative value to ESPN BET, it’s fair to say that after the Barstool fiasco, investors have serious doubts about the company’s strategy and management’s competence to execute. Were the market to credit PENN with merely 15% of DraftKings’ value, that segment alone would be worth $20 per share.
PENN launched ESPN BET last November. The launch was largely successful and led them to achieve a top-three user share by adding one million customers in less than two months. This result was much better than expected and enabled PENN to project turning a profit a year earlier than its previous guidance. To accomplish this, the company spent more on upfront marketing to acquire customers than it had indicated. Though we had believed the rationale for increased spending was well understood, the market focused on the higher spend and punished the shares.”
Overall PENN ranks 6th on our list of David Einhorn Stock Portfolio: Top 10 Stocks to Buy. While we acknowledge the potential of PENN as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns, and doing so within a shorter timeframe. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than PENN, check out our report about the cheapest AI stock.
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Disclosure: None. This article is originally published at Insider Monkey.
