Pembina Pipeline Corporation (NYSE:PBA) Q1 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

Zack Van Everen: Got you. That makes sense. And then maybe one on LPG exports. It’s been very topical here in the States and I was just curious if you had any updates around Prince Rupert expanding — and do you need any additional facilities there, if that would be sanctioned?

Chris Scherman: Hey Zack, it’s Chris Scherman. We continue to see, obviously, this ramp-up in Western Canadian production, increased propane length in Western Canada as well, we see the ramp-up in the Lower 48, and that dynamic really pushes you towards the West Coast. So, we continue to look at our options there. We think we’ve got some really, really effective optimization options at our Prince Rupert facility, and we’re looking to get more exposure to that market. So, we continue to look at it and remain interested.

Zack Van Everen: Perfect, that’s all I had. Thanks guys.

Operator: Your next question comes from Cole Pereira of Stifel. Your line is already open.

Cole Pereira: Hi, good morning all. So, acknowledging you just completed an acquisition and you have a number of other large projects and opportunities in front of you. With TMX now in service, there’s obviously still some uncertainty on tools and other factors. But can you just refresh us on your thinking about how you see that asset fitting with your asset base and your strategy?

Cameron Goldade: Hey Cole, it’s Cam here. Yes, what I would say is I think, obviously, we’ve been quite clear that global exports are a critical pillar in our strategy. Obviously, you can see just in the last question, what a focus it is for us on the NGL side, obviously, on LNG as well with Cedar. That said, as I think we’ve been pretty consistent for some time, there exists a great deal of uncertainty still on TMX. Obviously, one very important milestone has passed with the pipeline coming into service. But I understand that the toll resolution process is ongoing and is likely to take some time to see resolution. And from our perspective, there still exists a tremendous amount of uncertainty around that asset. And so frankly, nothing — nothing has changed from our prior messaging in terms of that as an investment opportunity. It’s not something we’re spending a great deal of time on right now. But obviously, global exports are always important in our strategy.

Cole Pereira: Okay, great. That’s all for me. Thanks. I’ll turn it back.

Operator: Your next question comes from Robert Kwan of RBC Capital Markets. Your line is already open.

Robert Kwan: Thank you. Good morning. You’ve got a bunch of large projects. As you noted, LNG Canada, TMX and then your own kind of Cedar. Just wondering, just since you’re talking with customers, what’s the nature of the discussions at this point with respect to new projects kind of following on those developments, upstream infrastructure? Do you see a lot of potential there?

Scott Burrows: I think for us, a lot of that was captured over the last 12 to 24 months with some of our big Northeast BC arrangements that we entered into. We’re starting to see those projects come to fruition in the next 12 to 24 months, which should provide some incremental volume growth in 2025 and into 2026. I think a lot of people are continuing to, as Jared said, drill in the liquids-rich areas, especially in the condensate-rich areas that with the outlook for increased oil demand and ergo incremental condensate need, we’re seeing a lot of activity in the condensate window. So, we are starting to see it, Rob, show up, but not just short-term, but as people are sanctioning some of these projects into 2025 and 2026.

Robert Kwan: Scott, just so I’m clear, you talked about in the next 12 to 24 months. Are you talking about projects that you’ve already announced or that you expect that we will see additional projects and sanctioned over the next 12 to 24 to drive the volumes?

Scott Burrows: I’m saying a lot of both. We’re seeing some of the volumes that we locked up, call it, a year ago, we’re going to start to see those volumes materialize on the system in the next 12 to 24 months. And then we’re also CA and talking to producers about some of their developments that they could potentially sanction over the next 12 to 24 months, which would then drive volume further on in the plan. And that’s always been what’s given us confidence from changing from talking about volume growth in that 5% range. We almost talked about it annually because that’s the line of sight we have. But now for the last 12 months, we’ve been saying that we have a view that, that could continue on for a couple of years here at least because we have much more visibility into that.

Robert Kwan: Got it. If you just look at the lower take-or-pay deferrals in the quarter, is that a function of a more bullish outlook? Or is that more so that you’re just so deep into the fee-based components of the contracts that deferring is just overly conservative and necessary?

Cameron Goldade: Rob, what it really comes down to is us having a number of years under our belt now in terms of observing history, how producers trend throughout the year, their history in terms of accessing those makeup rights. And now we have a statistical body of information which we can look at to create a higher degree of certainty where we can be comfortable recognizing those volumes early in the year than we have previously.

Robert Kwan: Got it. And if I can just finish with a clarification. Just there’s been a lot of talk around, especially Cedar specifically, but just CapEx and where you would be free cash flow post over neutral. When you’re looking at Cedar, are you specifically looking at that as the equity contribution? Or are you looking at it as your proportional CapEx?