Pembina Pipeline Corporation (NYSE:PBA) Q1 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

For further information on both the Annual Meeting and Investor Day, please visit the Investor tab at www.pembina.com. We’d once again like to thank all our stakeholders for their support. Operator, please go ahead and open up the line for questions.

Jeremy Tonet: Hi, good morning.

Scott Burrows: Morning Jeremy?

Jeremy Tonet: Thanks for all the detail this morning. I just want to dive in a little bit more on the fundamentals as you see them before you. And just if you could walk through, I guess, producer customer conversations at this point and how you see kind of activity unfolding over the balance of this year, the cadence of growth and how you see that, I guess, that trajectory at this point?

Scott Burrows: Yes. I’ll start, Jeremy, and I’ll invite any of my colleagues to jump in. I mean I think what we’re seeing is continued strong results across the board. I mean just previewing some of the results this week and last week, we’re seeing many of our producers come in above expectations, especially driven by strong condensate pricing, strong oil pricing. And again, in anticipation of some of these transformational events that we’ve been talking about for a while now. So, the conversations with producers have been great. The results are showing through, and we’re seeing a lot of momentum in the business.

Cameron Goldade: Jeremy, it’s Cam here. Maybe I’ll just add that I think one of the things that we think makes Pembina unique is obviously our exposure to all the commodities in the industry here in the hydrocarbon value chain. And I think as you’ve seen results come out that Scott referenced, some folks who have the optionality to allocate capital between dryer gas and more liquids-rich gas are indeed shifting towards the liquids-rich gas. And obviously, both of those work for Pembina given the exposure in our portfolio. So, we see that as a real unique element for us and continue to see good runway in 2024.

Jeremy Tonet: Got it. Thanks for that. And a little bit more time having passed since the Dow announcement. Just wondering if there’s any incremental details or thoughts you could provide as far as the scope of the opportunity set, what it could mean for Pembina, particularly operating leverage versus brownfield versus greenfield opportunities?

Scott Burrows: Jeremy, I think we’ll dive into that a little bit more next week at our Investor Day. So, I’m not — we’ll answer your question, but we’ll do it next week.

Jeremy Tonet: Fair enough, fair enough. And I think I might get the same answer for this one, but I’ll try nonetheless. With leverage having fallen below, I guess, your targeted range. Just any updated thoughts on capital allocation between growth CapEx, bolt-on dividend growth, buybacks, what have you?

Cameron Goldade: Yes. It’s a fair comment, Jeremy. And I think as we look out at 2024 and 2025, potentially even the year after that, 2026. If we look at where we are today with some of the capital, the investment in Cedar through to the middle of this year, we’re sort of depending on where you choose your point in the range, we’re relatively on point with sort of funding all that capital with cash flow after dividends. And if you sort of take forward that proxy and assume that we make a positive FID on Cedar later this year, 2025, probably not that different. And so we continue to think that the most accretive and best use of that capital right now. Obviously, are those opportunities which are in strategy and provide long-term annuities with strong counterparties and downside protection.

That said, if something changes there, we’ll do the same thing as we’ve always done and look at the opportunity set between repayment of debt. Obviously, we are at the low end of the range right now, incremental buybacks if they make sense from a capital allocation perspective or other opportunities. Obviously, we continue to have a backlog beyond the things we’re talking about and continue to advance those. So, probably not much different to what you heard from us in the past.

Jeremy Tonet: Got it. Makes sense. Thank you for that.

Operator: Your next question comes from Rob Hope of Scotiabank. Your line is already open.

Rob Hope: Good morning everyone. I wanted to just ask on Alliance and Aux Sable. So, it’s been in your hands for a little while now. Obviously, an asset you know well, but how are you progressing on thinking about commercial synergies there? And what is the time line that we could potentially look to.

Jaret Sprott: Rob Jaret here. So, yes, April 2nd, we brought over 161 employees over to Pembina. So, step one is obviously business continuity, just working with Enbridge through the transition service agreement and everything is going extremely well. We’re just over a month into that. commercial opportunities. I don’t — I think it’s a little bit early there right now, but the short-term synergies that we had talked about when we announced the deal, those are going extremely well. And then the longer term — kind of that midterm to longer-term synergies, expansions, different commercial opportunities, just continuing to be worked on. Like you said, we know the asset well, we were the commercial operator of Alliance previously and just continuing to work that and hopefully provide more color in the near future.

Cameron Goldade: And Rob, maybe I’ll just jump in. It’s Cam. I think maybe to say it a different way, so far, nothing we’ve seen is deviating us from what we saw at the time of the announcement. We’re tracking with the near-term synergies that were sort of immediately executable and continue to progress the ones that would obviously take a little bit more time, but we’re not seeing anything at the moment that is necessarily derailing us from what we saw and everything seems to be on track.

Scott Burrows: And I just pile on in terms of operations, not a synergy, but certainly, with what’s going on with Chicago gas price being a little bit lower than historical. We’ve seen a short-term tailwind at Aux Sable just with where frac spreads are. So currently, for 2024, Aux Sable was tracking above our acquisition model.