We recently compiled a list of the 10 Best Consumer Discretionary Stocks To Buy According to Hedge Funds. In this article, we are going to take a look at where PDD Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:PDD) stands against the other consumer discretionary stocks.
Many experts and analysts are concerned about a slowdown in consumer spending. However, reports show that consumer behavior is changing rather than slowing down. According to a report by Colliers Retail Market Intelligence, retail foot traffic rose by 4.4% in June, indicating strong consumer activity despite flat overall sales.
While furniture and home improvement stores saw declines due to reduced monumental purchases and a sluggish housing market, grocery stores, and apparel retailers performed better. Grocery sales grew by 1.7%, with a nearly 5% increase in foot traffic, as consumers managed their budgets despite cutting costs. Apparel sales also increased by 3.8%, driven by early back-to-school shopping and wardrobe updates, leading to an 8.3% rise in foot traffic.
In July, consumer spending saw a modest increase compared to June, with gains across 10 of 12 retail categories, as reported by the CNBC/National Retail Federation (NRF) Retail Monitor. Retail sales, excluding autos and gas, rose by 0.7% month-over-month, slightly up from June’s 0.5%, but the year-over-year growth slowed to 0.9%, down from 3.4% in June.
Core retail, which excludes restaurants, saw a 1% monthly increase. Significant sector performances included a 3.4% rise in gas station sales and a 2.1% increase in restaurant spending month-over-month. Conversely, the healthcare, personal care, and garden supplies sectors experienced slight declines.
June and July data together indicate that consumer spending remains resilient, supported by strong household finances and a strong job market. While some sectors, particularly furniture and home improvement, are struggling due to reduced consumer confidence and a slow housing market, other categories are performing well.
The data suggests that consumers are still willing to spend, especially on essential and seasonal items, though they may be more cautious with larger purchases. Despite some areas of decline, the overall retail environment appears stable, with consumers continuing to spend where they find value, which indicates a cautiously optimistic outlook for the remainder of 2024.
Latest Updates on Interest Rates and Potential Effects On Consumer Spending
In the July meeting, Fed Chair Jerome Powell highlighted the Fed’s ongoing focus on achieving maximum employment and stable prices. He noted significant progress in the economy, with inflation dropping from 7% to 2.5% and a balanced labor market with low unemployment at 4.1%. The Fed chose to keep interest rates steady within the 5.25% to 5.5% range and continue to reduce its securities holdings to maintain a restrictive stance, which is aimed at aligning demand with supply and reducing inflationary pressures.
Powell mentioned that while inflation has eased, the Fed is not yet ready to lower rates and requires more consistent positive data before making such a move, possibly as early as September. According to the CME Fed Watch Tool, all the experts are expecting cuts in September. 50.5% of the experts predict a 25 basis points (bps) reduction in the interest rates while 49.5% expect a 50 bps cut.
Rate cuts generally have a positive effect on consumer spending. When interest rates are lowered, borrowing becomes cheaper, which could lead to increased consumer borrowing and spending. This increased affordability can boost consumer confidence and promote spending on discretionary items. That’s a good set up for discretionary stocks, and with that, let’s look at the 10 best consumer discretionary stocks to buy according to hedge funds.
Our Methodology
For this article, we used the Finviz stock screener to identify over 50 large-cap consumer discretionary stocks then narrowed our list to 10 stocks that were most widely held by institutional investors as of Q1, and listed the stocks in ascending order of hedge fund sentiment.
Why are we interested in the stocks that hedge funds pile into? The reason is simple: our research has shown that we can outperform the market by imitating the top stock picks of the best hedge funds. Our quarterly newsletter’s strategy selects 14 small-cap and large-cap stocks every quarter and has returned 275% since May 2014, beating its benchmark by 150 percentage points (see more details here).
A close-up of a customer using the company’s e-commerce platform whilst shopping online.
PDD Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:PDD)
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 76
PDD Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:PDD), previously known as Pinduoduo, is a global e-commerce powerhouse. The company runs Pinduoduo, a prominent e-commerce platform in China that stands out for its extensive range of products and its unique team purchase model, which improves the shopping experience by encouraging group buys. Additionally, the company manages Temu, an international online marketplace focused on delivering high-quality, cost-effective products to consumers around the world. It is the 6th best consumer discretionary stock on our list.
In Q1, 76 hedge funds had investments in PDD (NASDAQ:PDD), with positions worth $5.8 billion. As of March 31, Hillhouse Capital Management is the top investor in the company and has a stake worth $1.37 billion.
PDD (NASDAQ:PDD) is making significant strides in the e-commerce world, particularly through its brands Temu and Pinduoduo. The company’s success in the e-commerce sector can be traced back to its early focus on rural and smaller cities in China, where it carved out a substantial presence. Unlike its competitors, which primarily targeted larger urban centers, the company tapped into a market eager for affordable products in less saturated areas.
PDD’s (NASDAQ:PDD) innovative approach, which includes a group-buying model, allows customers to pool their orders and secure lower prices, quickly resonated with shoppers looking for savings. This model has propelled the company into becoming one of China’s top e-commerce platforms.
Building on its success at home, PDD (NASDAQ:PDD) expanded internationally with the launch of Temu in the U.S. in 2022. Despite being a relatively new entrant, Temu has made impressive progress. According to Business of Apps, a B2B media and information platform, by September 2023, Temu had attracted 82 million active users in the U.S. alone and achieved over 250 million downloads globally, predominantly from the American market.
Temu’s approach focuses on offering a selection of products at competitive prices, with delivery times of about a week. This model emphasizes value for money and sells good-quality, generic goods at lower prices compared to many other retailers.
PDD’s (NASDAQ:PDD) ability to deliver both value and convenience has set it apart in the crowded e-commerce landscape. As Temu continues to grow and establish itself internationally, it builds on the successful strategies that it has employed in China, positioning the company as a formidable player in the global e-commerce market.
Baron Emerging Markets Fund stated the following regarding PDD Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:PDD) in its fourth quarter 2023 investor letter:
“We added to our digitization theme by building a position in PDD Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:PDD), a leading Chinese e-commerce platform. Founded in 2015, the company has emerged as China’s second largest e-commerce player, capturing approximately 20% market share. In our view, PDD’s competitive moat lies in its team purchase model that facilitates bulk buying through direct partnerships with manufacturers, thereby eliminating intermediaries (e.g., distributors and middlemen) and lowering costs. Key factors driving the company’s meteoric growth include rising consumer demand for affordable products in China amid an economic slowdown, small-scale merchants seeking alternatives to Alibaba, and superior management execution. PDD’s revenue growth outpaces gross merchandize value growth owing to rising take rates as merchants aggressively compete for consumer traffic on the platform. In our view, PDD should continue to gain market share given its dominance in the value-for-money segment, growing affordable branded product offerings, and high operational efficiency. We believe the company’s growth will be further supported by the recent launch of its international e-commerce platform, Temu, which has become one of the fastest growing apps globally. Leveraging China’s excess manufacturing capacity, Temu has strong negotiating power with domestic suppliers and attracts global consumers with competitively priced products. Temu’s recent initiatives to improve unit economics, coupled with achieving variable breakeven in the sizable U.S. market, showcase management’s skill and commitment to sustained growth. We expect PDD to at least double its earnings and free cash flow in the next three years, with the potential for continued compounding thereafter.”
Overall PDD ranks 6th on our list of the best consumer discretionary stocks to buy according to hedge funds. You can visit 10 Best Consumer Discretionary Stocks To Buy According to Hedge Funds to see the other consumer discretionary stocks that are on hedge funds’ radar. While we acknowledge the potential of PDD as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns and doing so within a shorter timeframe. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than PDD but that trades at less than 5 times its earnings, check out our report about the cheapest AI stock.
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Disclosure: None. This article is originally published at Insider Monkey.
