We recently compiled a list of the 16 Most Undervalued Stocks to Buy Now. In this article, we are going to take a look at where PDD Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:PDD) stands against the other undervalued stocks.
With the US stock market touching record highs, mainly driven by significant contributions from big technology sectors, domestic and global investors continue to observe market dynamics to tap potential opportunities. Therefore, identifying undervalued stocks becomes important as they might provide substantial value amidst high valuations across sectors.
Concentration of S&P 500
Courtesy of “Magnificent 7” stocks that captured investor attention in 2024, the market cap concentration in the leading US equities is the highest in decades. Strategists at Goldman Sachs believe the 10 largest US stocks now constitute ~33% of the S&P 500 index’s market value. This is well above the ~27% share reached at the peak of the tech bubble which was seen in 2000.
The present concentration helped in driving a period of strong US market returns. The market saw an annualized total return of ~16% over the previous 5 years. This compares to the 30-year annual average of 10%. As per Goldman Sachs, the top 10 stocks made up for over a third of that gain. That being said, “today’s top stocks are trading at lower valuations than the largest stocks did at the peak of the tech bubble in 2000.”
Despite healthy returns, investors are anxious regarding the extreme current degree of market concentration relative to the recent history.
There appear to be similarities between the current conditions today and the episodes in 1973 and 2000. The labor market seems to be in a decent state, and concentration has been rising along with robust equity market returns. In these episodes, the peak of equity market concentration also led to the peak of a bull market, and the US economy saw recessionary fears in the subsequent year.
However, the 1964 experience reflects that an ongoing bull market might continue to move higher despite a decline in market concentration. After the market concentration peaked, stock prices and the US economy were resilient for an extended period.
Are The US Stocks Overvalued or Undervalued?
The valuations of the largest stocks are well below the previous highs. As of now, the 10 largest stocks continue to trade at the collective forward P/E multiple of ~25x, well below the peak valuations seen in the largest stocks in 2000, 2020, and the middle of 2023.
The valuations are also lower based on the premium the largest stocks are trading at relative to the rest of the market. That is to say that the ~35% valuation premium today remains well below the 80% premium seen in the middle of 2023 and the 100% premium of 2000. Though the degree of market cap concentration is indeed higher today as compared to the peak touched in 2000, the largest stocks are trading at much lower multiples than during the technology bubble.
Our methodology
We used the Finviz screener to extract the list of 16 Most Undervalued Stocks to Buy Now. We have shortlisted the stocks that are expected to report earnings growth this year and have a forward P/E multiple of less than ~21.66x (as the market trades at the forward multiple of ~21.66x). We ranked the stocks in ascending order of their hedge fund sentiment.
Why are we interested in the stocks that hedge funds pile into? The reason is simple: our research has shown that we can outperform the market by imitating the top stock picks of the best hedge funds. Our quarterly newsletter’s strategy selects 14 small-cap and large-cap stocks every quarter and has returned 275% since May 2014, beating its benchmark by 150 percentage points. (see more details here).
A close-up of a customer using the company’s e-commerce platform whilst shopping online.
PDD Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:PDD)
Forward P/E ratio as on 22nd August: 12.48x
Expected EPS Growth this Year: 86.1%
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 86
PDD Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:PDD) is a multinational e-commerce group that owns and operates a portfolio of businesses. It continues to focus on the digital economy so that local communities and small businesses can reap the benefits of increased productivity and new opportunities.
The company used the higher penetration of smartphones and innovative business models to reach millions of customers in China.
However, the analysts and investing communities are not supporting Chinese companies due to the general slowdown in the broader economy. On the positive side, this means that most of the Chinese companies continue to trade at attractive valuations. For example, PDD Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:PDD)’s stock trades at ~12.4x its forward earnings, which is at a deep discount to the sectoral average of ~18.8x.
The company uses the group-buy business model. This allows the users to invite family and friends for bulk purchases of the products directly from the concerned manufacturers. Therefore, the manufacturers can receive bulk orders, and customers tend to benefit from rock-bottom prices. This strategy of the company provides a significant competitive advantage which should help it in witnessing earnings growth moving forward.
As per Insider Monkey’s 2Q 2024 database, PDD Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:PDD) was in the portfolios of 86 hedge funds.
Baron Funds, an investment management company, released its fourth quarter 2023 investor letter. Here is what the fund said:
“We added to our digitization theme by building a position in PDD Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:PDD), a leading Chinese e-commerce platform. Founded in 2015, the company has emerged as China’s second largest e-commerce player, capturing approximately 20% market share. In our view, PDD’s competitive moat lies in its team purchase model that facilitates bulk buying through direct partnerships with manufacturers, thereby eliminating intermediaries (e.g., distributors and middlemen) and lowering costs. Key factors driving the company’s meteoric growth include rising consumer demand for affordable products in China amid an economic slowdown, small-scale merchants seeking alternatives to Alibaba, and superior management execution. PDD’s revenue growth outpaces gross merchandize value growth owing to rising take rates as merchants aggressively compete for consumer traffic on the platform. In our view, PDD should continue to gain market share given its dominance in the value-for-money segment, growing affordable branded product offerings, and high operational efficiency. We believe the company’s growth will be further supported by the recent launch of its international e-commerce platform, Temu, which has become one of the fastest growing apps globally. Leveraging China’s excess manufacturing capacity, Temu has strong negotiating power with domestic suppliers and attracts global consumers with competitively priced products. Temu’s recent initiatives to improve unit economics, coupled with achieving variable breakeven in the sizable U.S. market, showcase management’s skill and commitment to sustained growth. We expect PDD to at least double its earnings and free cash flow in the next three years, with the potential for continued compounding thereafter.”
Overall PDD ranks 3rd on our list of the most undervalued stocks to buy. While we acknowledge the potential of PDD as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that some deeply undervalued AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns, and doing so within a shorter timeframe. If you are looking for a deeply undervalued AI stock that is more promising than PDD but that trades at less than 5 times its earnings, check out our report about the cheapest AI stock.
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Disclosure: None. This article is originally published at Insider Monkey.
