Matthew C. Lucey: Well, it’s interesting. And I’ll ask Thomas O’Connor to make some comments. As I sit here today, I was looking at it, as of yesterday. If you look at ‘24 more cracks, the market for calendar ‘24, it actually looks very comparable to ‘23. I think there’s been discussions of reverting to the mean, and I’m not so sure, that we’re going to revert to the mean as quickly as some maybe we’re predicting. And obviously, there’s a very, very big difference from, where we were in ‘22 and even ‘23 to what the historical mean is. But the market is, set up very constructively, as I said. And over the last couple of years, I mean, a big thing has been the industry has been scented, to build inventory has really struggled in that regard.
And so here we sit 2023, and inventories are very, very tight. Yes, there’s going to be capacity that’s going to be coming on, but quite frankly, it’s needed as demand growth, for products worldwide will continue to grow. I would personally take the over on, that equipment coming on time, or, as expected. These are incredibly complex very large, additions in their own right, both in Mexico and Nigeria. And you’ve got, my experience perspective is I think that probably takes longer. Tom O’Connor, would you make any other comments?
Thomas L. O’Connor: Yes. Neil, I mean, I think in terms of what Matt was saying, one thing I would add certainly is big change in rate adjusted cracks year-over-year, right. Board cracks, lower but we’ve got a RIN basket that is, $4 to $5 lower if we start looking at year-over-year. So, in terms of, product realizations that’s meaningful. As Matt was talking about with the refinery additions that are coming on stream and this year, probably part of it lends itself into being next year, a lot of that is coming in the form of the CDUs are starting up and the secondary units are really much further out, right. I mean, in terms of the FCCs and the cokers and all those other nice secondary units come out, that actually can be quite helpful for the market, right.
I mean, the market is tight in terms of secondary feeds on feedstocks for the FCCs and for the cokers. So, I think we’ll see that, it will be sort of similar to things that we’ve seen in the past when there’s been refinery expansions and the secondary units come afterwards, right. I mean, the VGO market in particular for 2023 was certainly a bit lower than what expectations were, and a lot of that was coming from some increase the CDU that took place in the Gulf Coast without increases to secondary units.
Neil Mehta: Thanks, Tom. Thanks, Matt.
Operator: Your next question comes from Paul Cheng from Scotiabank. Please proceed.
Paul Cheng: Thank you. Good morning. Matt, if I look at on a, I mean, since the pandemic, I mean, that the market condition is up and down and so a lot of volatility. So, it’s difficult for us that from the outside to look at what is the sustaining CapEx and also including turnaround for the company now. And also that since 2019, look like the unit cost have gone up in the niche of the region, maybe about in the 20% or so. Is this the new baseline that we should use or that you think, that’s the initiative that the company will be able to bring it down over the next couple of years? That’s the first question. Secondly, that, if we look at operationally, Toledo has been struggling for a number of years. What’s the plan in terms of improving the operating performance over there? And also, outside Toledo, is there any other refinery in your system that you think of we could do better and may have work to be done? Thank you.
Matthew C. Lucey: Look, it’s our job to continually improve. It’s our job to offset inflation with efficiencies. In regards to Toledo, in particular, if you go back to the first part of 2023, they had some operational upsets, much of it due to the weather and some of the storms from, last year. Operationally, Toledo has run pretty reasonably and pretty consistently, for the quarters two through four. In in regards to OpEx, the single biggest thing that will drive OpEx, we’ll be running reliably, and increasing throughput. And obviously, California, didn’t do that last quarter, and so you’ll see that, putting aside incremental expenses because of some of the downtime. Your OpEx is going to go up on a per barrel basis when you don’t operate well.
I’m encouraged, it’s obviously out of our control, but, we’re heading into 2024, with natural gas prices that are certainly better than they have been over the last couple of years. So, that should be a bit of a tailwind. In regards to capital, we’ve put out our guidance, over the, I think, earlier in the year. And that guidance included about $50 million of discretionary projects, return projects at each of the refineries. That’s the full extent of our, we don’t have any other big projects at the moment. So, I believe we put out a number of 800 to 850 for the full year, and that’s what it is this year. In regards to higher capital going forward, I still think, and we may yet still have it, next year as well, you had a three year period, which was just very, very odd, where incredible lows and incredible highs and capital programs were tweaked as a result, appropriately so.
