At this point, it’s a little tough to call that nine months out, but that’s why we labeled with preliminary. Right now, the point out, Bryan, after I get all of those words is simply to say at this point, we don’t have anything in our data that’s suggesting that a slowdown is occurring or is it imminent. Now if the Fed were to decide that it needs to go back to a cycle of 50 basis points increased rates, we’re going to have a different conversation really quick. Don’t see that happening. And one final point. All of us on the call we’re wondering two or three weeks ago when we’re going to have a systemic banking prices on our hand, but we certainly were looking at that and seems like the economy was resilient enough and the Fed did I should say, treasury did the right things in terms of shoring up the banking system.
So we’re — we have the environment we have. We understand what factors are moderating. We think that what this outlook incorporates is our best thinking on the environment. And I think that — having said that, our confidence in the second half, obviously, will be something that we’ll talk about — talk more about as we go through the year.
John Gibson: Yes. And I would — yes, Bryan. I’d just point you to our Paychex IHS job index reports on our website and look at January and look at February, we released it every month. Both months, the job index improved. We didn’t see that in any other consecutive months in the prior fiscal year. So certainly, we don’t see as Efrain already said, and I can reiterate what Efrain said, but even the benchmarks that we would see that would be signed, we’ve been doing this for a while. And we have a lot of historical models of what it looks like leading into a recession. And we’re just not seeing those. And what we hear from our clients in terms of the labor market, in terms of their employment, again, moderation, stabilization.
They’re not signing up for any big pieces. And I understand the challenge, and I try to put it in perspective is saying, how can you hear all this on the TV and the lease papers of what’s happening and then rationalize that with what I walk into the office in here every day. And I do think in some respects, I said it in earlier comments and the way I’ve rationalized it is we — there’s two different small business worlds. And I think there’s a lot of money put into a lot of tech companies, a lot of people that didn’t have to make money to spend money, could pay whatever they needed to, could hire as many people even if they didn’t have stuff for them to do. I think that bubble is bursting and you’re seeing that being digested. I don’t see the foundation of Main Street small business at this point, having those same type of dynamics that you’re reading in the paper.
I just simply can’t put it any other way, but we’re just not seeing it in the numbers. Now is there going to be a trickle down. And certainly, the banking thing last week was certain concerning because that gets contagious. Hopefully, the policymakers and individuals can do things to continue to help support Main Street small businesses from being impacted to being impacted from this kind of irrational actors that are doing things that don’t make sense. But I’ll get off that soapbox.
Operator: Thank you. Our next question comes from Peter Christiansen with Citi.
Peter Christiansen: Just wondering if we can get a sense for the health of the top of the funnel, if we were to exclude the ERP side of things, what are you seeing from new business formation and also perhaps some share shift from regional sell filers, that kind of stuff would be helpful color there?
