In this article, we discuss Paul Singer’s Latest Portfolio: Top 10 Stock Picks.
Stock markets are as risky as they have ever been. That’s the sentiment echoed by billionaire investor Paul Singer. The sentiment comes as the overall equity market has turned bearish, with major indices pulling back from record highs. The S&P 500 is already down by 10% and is officially in the correction phase, a development triggered by a string of developments.
A ferocious trade tariffs spat triggered by US President Donald Trump has sent shockwaves in the market, fueling a string of sell-offs. Similarly, growing concerns about the global economy plunging into recession amid a trade spat between the US and its allies have also unsettled the markets.
Singer, the brains behind Elliott Management, one of the most revered activist hedge funds, believes investors have become too complacent and could end up paying a hefty price.
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“Several years without a major downturn have lulled people into thinking that they’ll always be bailed out, that there’ll never be another bear market,” Singer said in a podcast hosted by the CEO of Norges Bank Investment Management.
Similarly, Singer thinks that artificial intelligence is overhyped and valuations in the sector have gotten out of hand. According to Singer, leverage and risk-taking are significant concerns in the markets and among governments. The billionaire investor has warned of the growing trend by central banks to push interest rates close or below zero as one of the ways of keeping economies afloat.
“We’re talking about deep recession-type spending programs, spending deficits, support programs at a time when there was no real recession,” the billionaire said about the stimulus bonanza that followed the pandemic.
The Elliott Management chief has also warned that cryptocurrencies have what it takes to threaten the dollar’s dominance. According to Singer, the Trump administration’s embrace of cryptocurrencies is helping fuel a speculative mania that could cause havoc.
The comments are made at a time when Elliott Management has emerged as one of the most formidable hedge fund managers in the world, placing bold wagers on anything from government bonds to distressed equities. Governments and C-suite executives alike fear it, and its average annual returns are 13%. However, as the Florida-based company has grown in size and success, senior employees at its European division have felt more and more marginalized.
Amid the growth, the fund suffered a major setback when its second most senior staffer jumped ship for another hedge fund. Nabeel Bhanji has opted to join Citadel barely a year after being promoted to a full equity partner at the $70 billion hedge fund. He joins big-name financiers James Smith and Franck Tuil, who left Elliott Management to start their own funds. Sebastien de La Riviera, Mark Wills and Mark Levine have also left.
Amid the significant exodus, Elliott Management remains a global powerhouse in activist investing. The hedge fund is increasingly investing in companies it believes are undervalued and trying to force changes that it believes have the potential to unlock hidden value. Some of the changes include a management shakeup, the spin-off of some units, or the sale of the entire business.
Paul Singer of Elliott Management
Our Methodology
To make the list of Paul Singer’s Latest Portfolio: Top 10 Stock Picks, we selected stocks based on Elliott Management’s Q4 2024 13F filings. We then examined the stocks for why they stand out as Singer’s long-term solid plays. Finally, we ranked the stocks in ascending order based on the hedge fund’s stakes in them. Additionally, we have mentioned the hedge fund sentiment around each stock, as of Q4 2024.
At Insider Monkey, we are obsessed with the stocks that hedge funds pile into. The reason is simple: our research has shown that we can outperform the market by imitating the top stock picks of the best hedge funds. Our quarterly newsletter’s strategy selects 14 small-cap and large-cap stocks every quarter and has returned 373.4% since May 2014, beating its benchmark by 218 percentage points (see more details here).
Paul Singer’s Latest Portfolio: Top 10 Stock Picks
10. Western Digital Corporation (NASDAQ:WDC)
Elliott Management’s Equity Stake: $134.17 Million
Number of Hedge Funds Holding Stakes: 85
Western Digital Corporation (NASDAQ:WDC) delivers reliable, high-capacity, and cost-effective storage solutions trusted by cloud providers, data centers, professionals, and consumers globally. It is one of Paul Singer’s biggest holdings, offering exposure to the burgeoning artificial intelligence landscape.
Western Digital Corporation (NASDAQ:WDC) has spun off its NAND flash business—the split results in two targeted businesses better equipped to take advantage of different market opportunities. Western Digital will continue to own the HDD division, while SanDisk will be the new name for the NAND division. As AI models become more intricate, storage needs should increase more quickly. Due to its reduced cost profile, HDD should see an increase in demand in the early stages. The company is committed to growing its market share in the enterprise and data center storage sectors. Consequently, it’s been making investments in high-performance SSDs and enterprise HDDs with large capacities.
Western Digital Corporation (NASDAQ:WDC) delivered solid fiscal first quarter 2025 results that demonstrate underlying growth and commitment to operational excellence and disciplined capital investment. Revenue was up 9% quarter over quarter to $4.1 billion as net income increased 1,588% quarter over quarter to $1.35 a share.
9. Seadrill Limited (NYSE:SDRL)
Elliott Management’s Equity Stake: $144.19 Million
Number of Hedge Funds Holding Stakes: 42
Seadrill Limited (NYSE:SDRL) is an energy company that provides offshore drilling services to the oil and gas industry worldwide. It owns and operates drill ships and semi-submersible rigs for shallow and ultra-deepwater operations in benign and harsh environments. It is one of the companies feeling the brunt of lower oil prices. The company’s fourth quarter 2024 revenues dropped to $280 million compared to $354 million in the third quarter.
Lower revenue came as the company faced lower contract revenues that were down by 22%. Amid the decline, Seadrill Limited (NYSE:SDRL) scored $1 billion in backlog, which should be a key revenue driver. Additionally, Seadrill sold the cold-stacked West Prospero at a favorable valuation of $45 million. Seadrill also reiterated its commitment to return value to shareholders, having returned $100 million through buybacks.
According to the chief executive officer Simon Johnson, Seadrill Limited (NYSE:SDRL) is well-positioned to navigate market volatility backed by a strong balance sheet and durable backlog extending to 2029. The company has a backlog of about $3 billion and has about 75% of available rig day’s contracts across its marketed and managed rig fleet.
8. BioMarin Pharmaceutical Inc. (NASDAQ:BMRN)
Elliott Management’s Equity Stake: $230.08 Million
Number of Hedge Funds Holding Stakes: 51
BioMarin Pharmaceutical Inc. (NASDAQ:BMRN) is a biotechnology company that develops and commercializes innovative therapies for rare genetic diseases and medical conditions. Its products include VIMIZIM, an enzyme replacement therapy for the treatment of mucopolysaccharidosis (MPS) IV type A. While the stock was down by about 15% in 2024, it is showing signs of bouncing back, going by the 7% year-to-date gain.
The rally comes on BioMarin Pharmaceutical Inc. (NASDAQ:BMRN) delivering solid fourth-quarter and full-year results. Revenue in the fourth quarter was up 16% to $747 million as net income nearly doubled to $180 million or $0.92 a share from a profit of $95 million a year ago. BioMarin attributed the significantly higher-than-anticipated profits to the global increase in demand for its enzyme treatments. The company also benefits from large-scale government orders.
BioMarin Pharmaceutical Inc.’s (NASDAQ:BMRN) sales increased at a respectable 10.9% compound annual growth rate during the previous five years. Its growth was marginally higher than that of the typical healthcare company, indicating that its products are well-liked by clients. Over the past five years, its earnings per share have grown at an impressive 30.8% compound annual growth rate, which is better than the annualized sales growth of 10.9%.
7. Etsy, Inc. (NASDAQ:ETSY)
Elliott Management’s Equity Stake: $264.45 Million
Number of Hedge Funds Holding Stakes: 58
Etsy, Inc. (NASDAQ:ETSY) is an internet retail giant that operates a global online marketplace where people can buy, sell, make, and collect unique, handmade, vintage, and craft supply items. It connects independent sellers with millions of buyers through the Etsy marketplace. Its stock has been under pressure after the company delivered disappointing financial results for the holiday quarter, as it also missed expectations for gross merchandise.
Etsy, Inc. (NASDAQ:ETSY) delivered fourth-quarter 2024 revenue of $852.2 million against the $861.8 million analysts expected as it faced significant headwinds, including a pullback in consumer spending. Nevertheless, it posted earnings per share of $1.03 against 93 cents a share expected. Gross merchandise sales sold on the platform fell 6.8% year-over-year to $3.74 billion.
The disappointing financial results are one of the reasons the stock has plunged and recorded a new 52-week low. Etsy, Inc. (NASDAQ:ETSY) warned that it expects gross merchandise to decline in the first quarter at a rate similar to 6.8% in the fourth quarter, which has also rattled the markets. To revert to its origins and encourage customers to return, Etsy has been attempting to stop the proliferation of mass-produced, generic products from resellers on its marketplace. Along with a loyalty program, it has also introduced a giving feature to offer customers tailored suggestions.
6. Match Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:MTCH)
Elliott Management’s Equity Stake: $394.31 Million
Number of Hedge Funds Holding Stakes: 50
Match Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:MTCH) is a communication services company that develops technology to facilitate connections between people through various platforms, including dating apps. Its portfolio of brands includes Tinder, Hinge, Match, Meetic, OkCupid, Pairs and Plenty of Fish. The primary sources of app revenue are subscriptions and premium features. The business also depends on technological developments to boost user engagement and boost sales.
After underperforming in 2024, Match Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:MTCH) sought to reinvigorate its prospects through a management shakeup. The company’s CEO, Bernard Kim, has been replaced by Spencer Rascoff. The dating app leader delivered mixed fourth-quarter 2024 earnings on February 4. Earnings per share totaled $0.59, exceeding analysts’ consensus estimate of $0.55. Nevertheless, revenue of $860 million slightly exceeded the estimated $857 million, but it was below management’s guidance range.
To increase user engagement, Match Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:MTCH) is spending more on AI-driven technology advancements to improve product offerings across all of its platforms. As the business tackles Tinder’s performance issues, financial restraint and flexible marketing tactics will be essential.
5. NRG Energy, Inc. (NYSE:NRG)
Elliott Management’s Equity Stake: $433.06 Million
Number of Hedge Funds Holding Stakes: 53
NRG Energy, Inc. (NYSE:NRG) is an integrated energy and consumer services company that produces and sells electricity, natural gas, and energy-related products and services to residential, commercial, industrial, and wholesale customers. It was one of the best-performing stocks in Elliott Management’s portfolio in 2024 after gaining 48%.
After an impressive run in 2024, the company has moved to reinforce its position as a leading energy generator in Texas with the acquisition of six power generation facilities. The acquisition adds 738 megawatts of natural gas-fired capacity. The company remains well-positioned to benefit from record electricity demand due to population growth and data center growth.
Furthermore, NRG Energy, Inc. (NYSE:NRG) has strategically invested $2.5 million in Equilibrium Energy, a business that specializes in using artificial intelligence (AI) technologies to optimize energy portfolios. The investment is a component of NRG’s endeavors to tackle grid stability issues brought on by elements including load expansion, the incorporation of renewable energy sources, and severe weather. The investments come from the company delivering solid fourth-quarter 2024 results. Earnings per share totaled $1.56, better than analysts expected $1.08. Revenue totaled $6.86 billion.
4. Pinterest, Inc. (NYSE:PINS)
Elliott Management’s Equity Stake: $812 Million
Number of Hedge Funds Holding Stakes: 72
Pinterest, Inc. (NYSE:PINS) is Paul Singer’s top stock pick in the communication service sector. The company operates as a visual search and discovery platform offering ways for people to find ideas such as recipes, home and style inspiration, and others. It also offers various advertising products to help advertisers meet users. While the stock was down by 3% in 2024, it has started 2025 on a roll, going by an 8% gain year to date.
The rally year to date comes from Pinterest, Inc. (NYSE:PINS) delivering the fourth quarter of 2024 sales figures that beat estimates and showed robust user growth. Revenues in the quarter totaled $1.15 billion ahead of the $1.14 billion analyst estimate. The company also stated that it expects its first-quarter sales figures to average between $837 million and $852 million against analysts’ estimates of $833 million. The number of global monthly users of its solution is also improving, with an 11% growth to 553 million in the fourth quarter.
Average revenue per user (ARPU) is one of the most crucial metrics to consider for Pinterest, Inc. (NYSE:PINS) because the firm has consistently lagged behind rivals in terms of user monetization. ARPU increased by 6% overall to $2.12. According to Pinterest, its Performance+ platform has produced encouraging initial results, with marketers reporting a 20% increase in cost per acquisition. Likewise, the platform is expected to be a key growth driver in 2025 as Pinterest leverages artificial intelligence tools optimized for ad loads and improves ad relevancy.
3. Suncor Energy Inc. (NYSE:SU)
Elliott Management’s Equity Stake: $1.88 Billion
Number of Hedge Funds Holding Stakes: 50
Suncor Energy Inc. (NYSE:SU) is an integrated energy company that extracts, produces, and provides energy from various sources, including oil sands, and renewable fuels. It is the third largest holding in Paul Singer’s portfolio, favored for its solid 4.43% dividend yield, ideal for generating passive income.
Suncor Energy Inc. (NYSE:SU) delivered solid fourth-quarter results on February 5 with an adjusted profit of C$1.25 ($0.8733) a share, above analysts’ estimate of C$1.10. The earnings that were better than expected were driven by increased oil production and strong sales of refined products. Suncor’s refining throughput was 486,000 barrels per day (bpd), while its upstream production was close to 875,000 bpd. Heightened production indicates the company is well positioned to exploit favorable oil market conditions to maintain consistent cash flow and profitability.
With the opening of the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion, Suncor Energy Inc. (NYSE:SU) will have more ability to ship its goods to buyers abroad, with an additional 590,000 barrels per day. Suncor will benefit in the long run from this since it should allow the corporation to obtain higher oil prices and more capacity to handle production growth. Suncor has also invested in operational optimization, emphasizing cost-cutting and efficiency enhancements.
2. Southwest Airlines Co. (NYSE:LUV)
Elliott Management’s Equity Stake: $2.01 Billion
Number of Hedge Funds Holding Stakes: 34
Southwest Airlines Co. (NYSE:LUV) is a passenger airline company that provides scheduled air transportation services. It boasts one of the largest fleets, comprising 803 Boeing 737 aircraft serving over 100 destinations. Elliott Management first confirmed a $1.9 billion stake in the airline in 2024, kickstarting an activist campaign.
The activist campaign came as the company had suffered significant margin deterioration, with its stock underperforming significantly. Elliott Management sought to oust CEO Bob Jordan and chairman Gary Kelly and replace half of the board, insisting the management had failed to pursue aggressive price changes to boost revenue.
Following a push and pull, the Paul Singer hedge fund struck a deal with the company to avert a proxy fight in exchange for six director positions late last year. The changes come on Southwest Airlines Co. (NYSE:LUV) slashing unprofitable routes to cut costs. It has also started to offer free checking of bags only to the upper tiers of its frequent-flier program, those who purchased business-class tickets. It also initiated new revenue initiatives aimed at boosting earnings by $4 billion by 2027. Southwest Airlines also announced a $2.5 billion buyback program to return value to shareholders.
1. Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. (NYSE:TFPM)
Elliott Management’s Equity Stake: $2.01 Billion
Number of Hedge Funds Holding Stakes: 18
Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. (NYSE:TFPM) is a basic materials company that acquires and manages precious metals, streams, royalties, and other mineral interests. It is the biggest holding in Paul Singer’s portfolio, offering exposure to some of the most sought-after minerals. Mainly dealing in gold and silver, the company positions itself as a partner to mining companies in the market by offering up-front funding in return for a share of future output.
Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. (NYSE:TFPM) has moved to strengthen its revenue streams by acquiring 5% silver and gold streams from the Arcata and Azuca mines in Peru for $35 million. The acquisition should enhance the company’s portfolio as it will gain about 5-6 thousand ounces of gold annually by 2028. Additionally, the company has sought to strengthen its prospects amid growing demand for lithium, which is used in batteries to power electric vehicles and storage solutions.
It has acquired royalty on the Tres Quebradas Lithium project in Argentina. With the acquisition, it gains access to a high-grade lithium brine asset with a multi-decade reserve life and significant resource upside. Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. (NYSE:TFPM) should start collecting royalty revenue from the project in the second half of the year.
While we acknowledge the potential of Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. (NYSE:TFPM) as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns and doing so within a shorter time frame. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than TFPM but that trades at less than 5 times its earnings, check out our report about the cheapest AI stock.
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