Park Aerospace Corp. (NYSE:PKE) Q2 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

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So we’re getting there. But here’s something interesting, delivered an average of 15 in the last four months through August. So you would say that’s moving in the right direction, I think you would say that. Clearly, though, based upon a huge backlog, they would already be at a rate of 75 per month and not for supply chain restrictions, limitations that’s probably obvious to you. What about the engines, though, for the A320neo Aircraft family? What about those engines? While we review, the A320neo aircraft family offers 2 approved engine options, namely the CFM LEAP-1A engine and the Pratt 1100G GTF engine. Now we supply – Park supplies into the A320neo Aircraft family using the CFM LEAP-1A engine. We have no content on the A320neo family using that Pratt engine.

Now here’s something really, really interesting. The CFM LEAP-1A market share firm engine orders for A320neo family of aircraft that’s been hovering around approximately 60% last 2 years or so. You know that because every quarter, we talk about it. So you people that are pretty regular at Park, you’ve heard that 60% more or less number, that kind of 59%, 60%, 61% range for a while now. But what happened, let’s go on to Slide 20. That’s all changed. In the last few months, the LEAP-1A has broken out as a clear market share winner for the A320neo Aircraft family. Now in red, the CFM LEAP-1A market share of firm orders for the A320neo Aircraft family has jumped to 66% at just July 31, 2023. Well, that’s a huge jump. Why is that? This huge jump in market share is quite remarkable when it considers there are 12,348 firm engines – sorry, firm engine orders for the A320neo Aircraft family.

I mean, you’re so much balanced in the market share – a significant change, like a 60% of market share would be considered to be highly unlikely. In other words, if there are 20 engines ordered, somebody gets five orders. Well, that’s good, you really move the needle. But with over 12,000 engine orders, it takes a lot to move that needle. 6% is just shocking, huge number. Well, what’s going on here? Shocking to me anyway, that’s my opinion. I mean maybe other people don’t agree, but what’s going on here though, why? Slide 21. Just a little aside, the delivery rate of 75 A320neo family aircraft per month, a 66% LEAP-1A market share translates into 1,188 LEAP-1A engines per year. I’m just doing math, sorry, I mean, if you got a little calculator on your iPhone, you can do that yourself.

What’s that worth to Park? Well, for your outlook, it would be worth $36 million per year. Just do the math again, do the math, because we know what our content for engine is, $36 million per year. That’s just for the A320neo family. Currently, our 8,144 firm LEAP-1A engine orders. What’s the firm orders worth to Park? Well, that’s a little bit more difficult to say because some of those airplanes will be delivered after 2029. And like I said, if you’re betting first and you’re going to bet it will continue after 2029, but our prices will go up at 2029. Now the price is also going up at 2025 or maybe an offset. So this year, next year, price will lower, they go up on 2025. So you try to [indiscernible] other. But you could do your own math, you can multiply 8,144, by – you want 30,500.

So that’s how much it is per – that’s 30,500 per unit, not million. That’s about $0.25 billion. So that’s just kind of a rough – kind of guesstimate, that’s not the program. The program will continue and there will be more orders, I would expect. What happened anyway? So back to the main point here. Why is the market share firm engine orders for the A320 aircraft family? Why is the chip that’s so abruptly and dramatically in favor of the CFM LEAP-1A engine? Very serious issues to Pratt 1100G. Now we talked about this a little last time we go at durability, but we’re talking about a different category of issues. Now these issues have been extensively reported. And as a result, we will not attempt to cover them in detail here. However, the Pratt 1100Gengine issues are expected to ground 350 A320neo family airplanes per year through 2026, which has met with as many as 650 groundings in the first half of 2024, that’s not some analyst or commentator, that’s from the company.

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