Palantir (PLTR)’s Valuation Debate: Growth Potential vs. Market Realities

Recently we took a detailed look at the Top 10 Trending Stocks and Palantir Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ:PLTR) was one of the stocks that were highlighted in that article.

The volatile tariff policies of the new US administration and a slowdown in AI-related enthusiasm took a toll on the market over the past few weeks. However, some analysts believe a rebound is due.

Fundstrat’s Tom Lee said in a latest program on CNBC that he believes the US stock market will begin to recover starting April 2. Here is how Lee explained the reasons behind his positive outlook:

“When markets fall this quickly from a 52-week high, just remember less than a month ago we were at all-time highs. That is a market pricing in a crisis. I’d say almost 50% pricing in a recession, and we’re assuming there’s no Fed put now. The Fed is in a position to cut rates that really should mitigate the downside. I do think two other things that investors have to keep in mind, because many people just want to get out until April 2nd, is number one, I do think there’s a very high probability that a tariff solution happens before the next three weeks happens. It’s simple to see because China, Europe, Canada, Mexico since April 18th—all of those countries have outperformed the US. I don’t think that markets are that blind to say if Canada and Mexico are about to have a recession, they should outperform the US. The second thing people should keep in mind is that when you have a global crisis brewing—and we highlighted like the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis—that was a 12-day crisis, but the markets bottomed seven days into the crisis, five days before that crisis ended, the market had already recovered two-thirds of the losses.”

READ ALSO: 7 Best Stocks to Buy For Long-Term and 8 Cheap Jim Cramer Stocks to Invest In

For this article, we picked 10 stocks notable Wall Street analysts were discussing recently. With each stock we have mentioned its latest hedge fund sentiment. Why are we interested in the stocks that hedge funds pile into? The reason is simple: our research has shown that we can outperform the market by imitating the top stock picks of the best hedge funds. Our quarterly newsletter’s strategy selects 14 small-cap and large-cap stocks every quarter and has returned 373.4% since May 2014, beating its benchmark by 218 percentage points (see more details here).

9. Palantir Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ:PLTR)

Number of Hedge Funds Investors: 41

Michael Lee from Michael Lee Strategy said in a recent program on Schwab Network that he’s bullish on Palantir Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ:PLTR) despite the stock’s “astronomical” multiple.

“I’m pretty close to fully invested. My all-time favorite stock that I’ve ever seen, ever, is Palantir. The prospects for this company over the next three to five years are like nothing I’ve ever seen. Morgan Stanley thinks AI software spend this year is roughly 60 billion, and that goes to 400 billion in 2028. Palantir’s got a 7 to 9% market share of that. Now, if you extrapolate that out to 2028, that’s a 20 to 30 billion revenue number, which is a 4 to 5x from where they’re going to end up this year. And the way the operating leverage from their business works—with the way they use their engineers and the fact that they’ve been working on this technology for 20 years—it’s going to be a cash machine, a profit machine. As a SaaS company that’s going to continue to grow at unimaginable rates, it’s always going to have an astronomical multiple. I’m going to be adding it there because I’ve never seen a technology company ready to disrupt the world the way Palantir is.”

Palantir’s valuation is concerning for many. Its revenue growth is expected to slow over the next two years, with estimates suggesting a 22% YoY growth rate, potentially bringing revenues to around $4 billion by fiscal 2026. If Palantir Technologies Inc (NASDAQ:PLTR) can improve margins by 100 basis points annually, it would be able to generate about $1.5 billion in adjusted operating income by FY26, with a present value of $1.3 billion when discounted at 8%. Applying an S&P 500-like growth multiple of 2.5 to 2.75 times earnings, Palantir Technologies Inc (NASDAQ:PLTR) would have a P/E of 46, translating to a price target of $27, significantly down from its current price.

Baron Asset Fund stated the following regarding Palantir Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ:PLTR) in its Q4 2024 investor letter:

“Two software stocks that the Fund did not own, Palantir Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ:PLTR) and AppLovin Corporation, each gained more than 100% and accounted for 52% of the Benchmark’s gain during the quarter. At year end 2024, Palantir was valued at approximately 200 times its expected 2024 earnings, while AppLovin was valued at 80 times. The market cap of each exceeded $100 billion, and the two stocks represented nearly 8% of the Index. Neither company met our criteria for investment. The total impact on relative performance from Palantir and AppLovin was about 7 times higher than we have seen historically for two securities that are unique to the Benchmark, showing just how unparalleled the event was and something that we believe is unlikely to be repeated.”

PLTR ranks 9th among our list of the top 10 trending stocks. While we acknowledge the potential of PLTR, our conviction lies in the belief that under the radar AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns and doing so within a shorter time frame. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than PLTR but that trades at less than 5 times its earnings, check out our report about the cheapest AI stock.

READ NEXT: 20 Best AI Stocks To Buy Now and 30 Best Stocks to Buy Now According to Billionaires.

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