Packaging Corporation of America (NYSE:PKG) Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Just keep in mind, we did that, and we accomplished an incredible amount of high-return projects and impact projects that benefit our customers and our shareholders alike. But also this year, we continued that trend. The $400 million range of high-return, high-impact projects affords us again an incredible opportunity with the balance sheet because all that operating cash that we’re generating goes into free cash and can be deployed appropriately. And so we’re in a very good place. Over the last 10 years, we’ve done all the heavy lifting to get the mills and the box plants in very, very efficient condition. And so now it’s much more manageable about how we go about with these projects. And so with the fact that we have the internal capability with the engineering and technology organization to manage the bulk of all this work.

We’re in a much better position than we’ve ever been and we’ll continue that. But again, all optionality is open for us on how we look at the world.

Phil Ng: Okay. Appreciate that

Mark Kowlzan: Thank you. Next question?

Operator: Our next question is a follow-up from Mark Weintraub from Seaport Research Partners. Please go ahead with your follow up.

Mark Weintraub: Thank you. So can you share with us the types of alternatives on pricing structures that might be contemplated? Would they be more cost tied? Would they be more macro or data tied? Would it be more just going and negotiating with counterparties, some combination? Or any color as to kind of where the bias might be from your perspective?

Tom Hassfurther: Mark, it’s nice that you’re thinking about it, and I appreciate all your options that you just presented, but I’m not going to get into that at all because, as I told you before, that’s between us and our customers. And we’ll work those out as we go forward. So, I’m sorry, I can’t give you anything, but that’s the way we do business.

Mark Weintraub: Totally understood. Is there anything that may have been missing that would have been in the list recognizing there’s going to be a whole bunch of things that you’re going to be talking about with your customers…

Tom Hassfurther: Nice try, but I’m going ditto again. Okay.

Mark Weintraub: Yes. I did try. And then Bob, you had mentioned about 60% of the costs increased from 4Q to 1Q seasonal or timing. Could you sort of put a number on that? Would that be like $0.20 per share? And if it we were just – had that 6% come back in the second quarter?

Bob Mundy: Mark, it’d be closer to 35%, maybe a little more per share.

Mark Weintraub: Right. Okay. Thank you so much.

Mark Kowlzan: Okay. Thank you, Mark. Any other questions, please?

Operator: [Operator Instructions] Our next question is also a follow-up from Gabrial Hajde from Wells Fargo. Please go ahead with your follow-up.

Gabrial Hajde: Tom, Mark, I’m going to try one more time. So, I apologize in advance, but it’s more trying to understand the thought process. And I think the price discovery process that we’ve seen over the past 25 years, what we’re hearing is maybe is not as bulletproof or as useful as it maybe once was. And so maybe really what we’re hearing is and something I think is misunderstood in the industry, is that you guys sell boxes that are made to a spec that service a customer’s needs as opposed to selling a customer a parent roll of paper. And so is it fair that maybe what’s going on behind the scenes is the value that you’re bringing to your customers is really what you’re trying to understand and work with them to help them understand ultimately and move the pricing structure to something like that.

Tom Hassfurther: Well, Gabe, you described it very well. I got to be honest with you. There is a linerboard and medium market, and then there’s a box market. And the box market is all custom-made. Lots of different things go into it, and there’s a value created accordingly. So you – as I’ve said before, I’m not going to get into all the optionality and all those other sorts of things, those things we’ll discuss with our customers. But you do describe it accurately, I think, especially from our customers’ point of view, that what gets reported is quite different than what they see in the marketplace. And just as an example, I mean, even when the prices went down, over the past 18 months or so. There isn’t a customer who said, I see that there’s a need for that or that they saw that in the marketplace.

So we’ve got – what we’re hearing from our customers is very different than what’s getting published. And that disconnect, we’ve got to figure out how to solve that disconnect, I guess, is probably the best way to put it.

Gabrial Hajde: Very much appreciated. Thank you and good luck.

Tom Hassfurther: Thank you.

Mark Kowlzan: Thank you. Any other questions, Jamie?

Operator: Our next question comes from Charlie Muir-Sands from BNP Paribas. Please go ahead with your question.

Charlie Muir-Sands: Hi, Good morning, gentlemen. Thank you very much for all the good answers so far given us a lot to think about. Just had one question on the Jackson mill. You’ve obviously very helpfully quantified the temporary cost drag that we should expect in Q1 and Q2. But can you just talk about the cost benefit that we should see from the mill once it fully ramps up and perhaps contextualize how much more efficient this mill is compared with the rest of your network?

Mark Kowlzan: Yes. We talked about this for the last couple of years and that when we were done with all of this work because the work that’s going on that will start next month and then finish up. It’s about a 58-day outage at the mill, but it involves more than just the paper machine. Once again, in and of itself is a lot of work with dryer cans real press section rebuild, but it’s also power plant work. We’re going to be reconfiguring a lot of the power plant steam flows, steam pressures will be – ultimately, we’ll be producing more megawatts off the power plant in the back end of the mill and providing more high pressure, higher efficient steam into the paper machine. And so net-net, the mill when it’s done, will have the capability to produce linerboard and be at or amongst our lowest cost in the system.