Packaging Corporation of America (NYSE:PKG) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Mike Roxland: Got it. Thank you very much and good luck for the quarter.

Mark Kowlzan: Thank you. Next question, please.

Operator: Our next question comes from Gabe Hajde from Wells Fargo. Please go ahead with your question.

Unidentified Analyst: Hey. This is [Alex] (ph) on for Gabe. Thanks for taking my question. So just thinking about the inventory level, can you maybe just kind of comment on what your targeted inventory looks like for year-end or when thinking about the Jackson outage.

Mark Kowlzan: We never give absolute numbers, but I can tell you, when we started out the third quarter, we — the targets we had in mind, we far under — we were dramatically lower than what our goals were for the ending inventory, and that’s a positive situation to be in especially when we have the opportunity to get Wallula started back up and satisfy that demand. But we have a number in mind and what will influence that number, of course, is the shutdown schedule we have in plans for the Jackson conversion and then the other annual shutdowns that will take place in the first six months of the year in the rest of the containerboard system. And so the — without giving you an absolute number, we have some work to do to get our inventory up where it needs to be get us into the new year and then get us through the first six months of the year.

Unidentified Analyst: Okay, thanks. And just thinking about Wallula. Is there anything — does anything change with the cost structure that we see, [Indiscernible] of as the mill restarts in variable or fixed?

Mark Kowlzan: Again, Wallula, it’s no surprise, is our higher cost mill because of the fiber basket and the energy situation in the Pacific Northwest. But it remains a critical mill to us because of the local with our Pacific Northwest box plants. And so in that regard, the cost position won’t change. We’re taking advantage of running the big machine. We don’t currently need the number two machine running, but that could change. So again, we will run to demand. we will satisfy what we need. Tom, do you want to add?

Tom Hassfurther: Yes. I would just add that with Wallula mill operating in a very large market for us, it certainly gives us a lot more flexibility in a box plant to react and respond quicker to the marketplace as that continues to rebound. And of course, that’s heavy ag up there as well. So this will be — this will give us some advantage in terms of flexibility in that marketplace.

Bob Mundy: Yes. Alex, I’ll just add that when we bring Wallula back on in the fourth quarter, again, we’re doing our comparisons to the third. As Mark said, it is our highest cost mill. And we are — as we get things ready so that we can restart the machine the first of November, we have been incurring labor costs and other things, obviously, with no production. So — but there are no significant cash cost to restart. There may be some non-cash, some raw material write-off type obsolescence type things, but nothing significant there. But it does, if you’re comparing to the third quarter, it accounts for — as far as our cost increase, if you look at our operating costs, it’s almost half of the increase is just coming from restarting Wallula and bringing those costs back online.

Unidentified Analyst: Great. Okay. That’s good. And I guess, my last question is just thinking about 2024, maybe can you just kind of maybe frame how you’re thinking about ’24, I understand we still have another quarter to-date, but just for the high levels of percentages, how you are thinking about ’24? Thanks.