So it may not have an extreme — the most near-term impact, but you don’t know when you’re actually in the sale, you don’t know are you going to get it done in the next six weeks or is it going to take 12 weeks? And it’s really — that’s one way to think about it. PacBio, I think there’s still confusion with investors perhaps about the PacBio Capital program. We’ve always had leasing programs in place. We just rebranded this program PacBio, and we have a new leasing partner, which we believe will give us more flexibility and more access. But when I look at revenue for next year, it doesn’t immediately strike me that we’re going to do more leasing next year versus this year. And when we do the leasing, we still get all of the revenue upfront.
And that’s a really important aspect of this is the way these leasing programs work is that we work with a financial partner that takes the — that actually buys the system and then takes payment from the end customer, and we can work with that leasing partner to do to create incentive programs or other things if we so chose. But right now, we don’t see leasing as being any bigger than it was this year per se. It might actually grow because our whole business is growing, but I don’t think a greater proportion, but I also haven’t done the math to know explicitly to be clear.
Todd Friedman: Next question?
Operator: Our next question comes from Sung Ji Nam from Scotiabank. Please go ahead with your question.
Sung Ji Nam: Hi, thanks for taking the question and congrats on the quarter. Christian, I would love to get your thoughts on the long read sequencing market over the longer term, let’s say, the next five years. You laid out the key drivers at the Analyst Day and the growth potential there. But given the stronger-than-expected adoption of Revio so far, do you think the long read sequencing might could — the market could have a bigger impact over the longer term?
Christian Henry: Yeah. Thank you. That’s a great question. And when you look out over the next five years, I think what Revio is showing is that the thesis that germline driven genomics needs the comprehensiveness of long reads. And if we can create platforms that give you the economics and the throughput and all of the capabilities of the multi-omes like we talked about in the prepared remarks, it really does plan to — it really will serve a large part of that market. I think our 2026 market estimates were somewhere in the range of the sequencing market being $12 billion to $14 billion. And realistically, probably half of that at least is — could be served by long-read sequencing, if not more. And I think this year has proven that that’s exactly on track.
Another area where maybe people don’t realize, but is really important is that plant and animal genetics really benefit from long read sequencing. Oftentimes, those genomes have — are multi-deployed. They’re not just deployed genomes. They have more chromosomes. They also have bigger genomes, some of smaller genomes and having the ability to have highly accurate sequencing in that space is actually — we’re significantly outperforming in 2023. And I think if you look out over five years, that’s another area where you’re going to see strong performance. It’s not — we focus a lot, to be honest, on germline human genetics because those are very, very significant markets. But we can’t leave the plant and animal world behind. That’s a multi-hundred million dollar plus business as well.
Todd Friedman: Hey Jamie, how about our last question?
Operator: Our final question today comes from Luke Sergott from Barclays. Please go ahead with your question.
Luke Sergott: Great. Thanks for squeezing me in. So on the 4Q implied guide, can you break out like the assumptions that you guys are having from consumables versus the instrument ramp that we should be getting to hit your guidance? And then as you guys continue to launch all these new applications, I mean, clearly, all these questions are on consumables and how that’s going to pace next year. But in the pushback we get for — not pushback, but the commentary we get from your customers is that you need to — there will be even more adoption here if you bring down price per sample and if you increase the applications. So how do you guys weigh that investment as you think about going forward the next couple of years?
Christian Henry: Yes. Thanks, Luke, and I appreciate you for hanging in there, too. So when I think about Q4, we didn’t break out the specifics, but we do think consumable revenue will continue to grow from here a little bit. And I think that instruments, we’ll see how we do on the instruments. When you start to think about consumables, bringing down the price, I don’t think I’ve ever heard a customer. I don’t think I’ve ever heard a customer say that they wouldn’t do more if the price was lower. So that’s not a revelatory comment. But I do think that — but I do think that price — there is this elasticity in the market. We are just at the beginning of that elasticity. Revio gives us the ability to start testing that. And I think we started in a great spot this year.
