Oxford Industries, Inc. (NYSE:OXM) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

Oxford Industries, Inc. (NYSE:OXM) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript March 23, 2023

Operator: Greetings and welcome to the Oxford Industries Fourth Quarter Fiscal 2022 Earnings Conference Call. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Jevon Strasser. Please go ahead.

Jevon Strasser: Thank you and good afternoon. Before we begin, I would like to remind participants that certain statements made on today’s call and in the Q&A session may take forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees and actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied in the forward-looking statements. Important factors that could cause actual results of operations or our financial condition to differ are discussed in our press release issued earlier today and in documents filed by us with the SEC, including the risk factors contained in our Form 10-K. We undertake no duty to update any forward-looking statements. During this call, we will be discussing certain non-GAAP financial measures.

You can find a reconciliation of non-GAAP to GAAP financial measures in our press release issued earlier today which is posted under the Investor Relations tab of our website at oxfordinc.com. And now, I’d like to introduce today’s call participants. With me today are Tom Chubb, Chairman and CEO; and Scott Grassmyer, CFO and COO. Thank you for your attention. And now, I’d like to turn the call over to Tom Chubb.

Tom Chubb: Thank you, Jevon. Good afternoon and thank you for joining us to hear about Oxford’s record performance in both the fourth quarter and the full fiscal 2022 year. We appreciate your time and interest in our company. As always, our enterprise purpose is to about happiness, our enterprise strategy is to own a portfolio of lifestyle brands that create sustained profitable growth and our enterprise objective is to maximize long-term shareholder value. Each of these important elements were critical to our tremendous success in fiscal 2022. We stayed anchored to these fundamental presets during the year and we are extremely proud of the incredible results achieved for our shareholders by our amazing team of people. During fiscal 2022, we delivered growth in all brands and all channels of distribution.

Total sales grew 24% year-over-year, driven overwhelmingly by organic growth led by our largest brand, Tommy Bahama which was up 22% for the year, followed by Lilly Pulitzer and our Emerging Brands Group which increased 13% and 29%, respectively. The balance of the growth came from the addition of Johnny Was which we are proud to have added to our portfolio during the third quarter of 2022. We generated this top line growth while simultaneously expanding both gross margin and operating margin. This combination produced record adjusted EPS of $10.88 for fiscal 2022 compared to our previous record of $7.99 in fiscal 2021, a 36% increase on a year-over-year basis. The results we achieved in 2022 are directly attributable to our focus on evoking happiness in our customers through our portfolio of lifestyle brands.

When we succeed in our purpose, it creates the sustained profitable growth that ultimately drives long-term shareholder value. So as always, our financial results are linked to our efforts to evoke happiness in our customers. We did an outstanding job on that front during fiscal 2022 as reflected by our customer KPIs. Not included — not including the newly added Johnny Was brand, we finished the year with 2.3 million active customers compared to 2.1 million active customers at the end of 2021. We were able to grow our active customer numbers by focusing on and reinforcing the power of our lifestyle brands. A lifestyle brand is different from an ordinary brand. In an ordinary brand, you are creating a product and a lifestyle brand you are creating a world or even a universe.

And when that world resonates with people, they want to fully engage with it and ultimately live them at. When that happens, people can be very loyal to you for a very long time. Across our portfolio, we did an excellent job of being crystal clear about what each of our brand stands for and then delivering that brand message to target audiences through inspiring marketing campaigns, differentiated and innovative product and uplifting hospitality and shopping experience. During 2022, we did a good managing both the composition of our portfolio and driving performance across the businesses within our portfolio. From a composition perspective, 2022 was the first year that our portfolio consisted exclusively of lifestyle brands having divested Lanier Apparel during 2021.

As previously noted, we were also pleased to have added Johnny Was, a California-based affordable luxury modern bohemian lifestyle apparel brand. From a portfolio performance perspective, as always, our priority in 2022 was on championing excellence in each key functional area necessary for a lifestyle brand to succeed. A terrific example of this was our creation of a marketing center of excellence to service the in-house agency for our Emerging Brands and to leverage resources and knowledge across the enterprise. Other examples include the establishment of an enterprise-wide corporate responsibility department, the enhancement of our long-term information technology strategy aimed at maximizing our return on IT investments, the initiation of a project to optimize fulfillment across the enterprise and enhanced leveraging of human capital across the enterprise.

An essential part of driving shareholder value is sound capital allocation. Starting the year with $210 million in cash and short-term investments and generating substantial cash flow, we were able to invest $47 million in the future growth of our business, acquired the Johnny Was brand and all its potential for $270 million, buyback $92 million of our stock completed a $100 million repurchase program and return an additional $35 million to shareholders in the form of dividends. We are proud to have been able to both return significant capital to our shareholders and make significant investments in the future growth of our business, all while maintaining a very strong balance sheet. We are equally excited about our plans for 2023. Once again, we plan to have good growth in all 6 of our brands.

Gross margin should also expand modestly during the year. Our plan for 2023 includes a top line that is almost 50% larger than it was in 2019, an operating margin that is almost double what it was in 2019 and operating income that is more than 2.5x 2019’s level. These are impressive growth numbers. And to put it plainly, the size of our platform has not kept pace with the size of our portfolio of businesses or with the opportunity for future growth. Accordingly and within the operating margin target I just outlined, we are excited to invest aggressively during 2023 in people, systems, stores, Marlin Bars and fulfillment infrastructure to support our growing business. Our willingness to invest is confirmation of our belief in our strategy and our future growth prospects.

Our confidence in our ability to blend art and science to deliver wonderful brand experiences to our customers through A+ product, A+ distribution and A+ communication has never been higher. The source of that confidence now and as always, is our people. We are incredibly grateful to each and every one of them for all that they do. Thank you. And I will now turn the call over to Scott for additional color on 2022 and our plans for 2023. Scott?

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Scott Grassmyer: Thank you, Tom. We had a record-setting fourth quarter that capped a terrific 2022, driven by continued strength in all selling channels across the portfolio. Operating groups executed very well during 2022 and delivered double-digit top line growth within each brand. Our largest brand, Tommy Bahama, had another exceptional year, with 22% top line growth and 350 basis points of adjusted operating margin expansion to 19.6%. Lilly Pulitzer also achieved a 13% revenue growth and a 19.8% adjusted operating margin. In 2022, consolidated net sales were $1.41 billion which included $73 million of sales for Johnny Was, growing 24% above last year’s net sales of $1.14 billion which included $25 million of sales from Lanier Apparel.

The growth in our existing brands was strong across all of our full-price distribution channels with increases of 20% in full-price bricks and mortar, 13% full price e-comm, 29% in wholesale and 14% in restaurants. Additionally, we also had increased sales of $22 million in the Lilly Pulitzer’s e-commerce flash sales and 14% in our outlets. Meanwhile, in addition to increasing sales, adjusted gross margin expanded 50 basis points over 2021 to 63.5%. We benefited from lower freight costs after experiencing very elevated freight rates in the second half of 2021. We saw additional gross margin benefits from a better mix of sales which was influenced by the addition of the higher gross margin, Johnny Was and the 2021 exit of lower gross margin Lanier Apparel.

IMUs increase as well as we raised prices more than our cost increased. These items were partially offset by the impact of Lilly Pulitzers, larger flash sales and lower gross margin on the flash sales in 2022 due to extremely lean inventory in 2021. We also had higher inventory markdowns in our Emerging Brands Group during 2022 as we wound up with some excess inventory as inventory purchases outpaced demand. Adjusted SG&A expenses were $684 million compared to $564 million last year. This increase was driven by increases in our existing businesses for employment costs, advertising costs, variable expenses and other expenses to fuel and support sales growth. Also, 2022 included $41 million of SG&A associated with the Johnny Was business, for the 19-week period that we owned Johnny Was.

While SG&A dollars increased, they did so at a slower pace relative to our sales growth, leading to an 80 basis points leveraging of SG&A. Result of all this yielded $234 million of adjusted operating income or 16.6% operating margin compared to $174 million or 15.3% in 2021, with the improved adjusted operating income driven by the strong results in Tommy Bahama and the operating income of Johnny Was for the 19 weeks since acquisition in September. This increased operating income was partially offset by a higher effective tax rate of 23% in 2022 and increased interest expense due to the borrowings associated with the acquisition of Johnny Was. Despite these offsets, we inhibited EPS expansion from an already excellent 2021. This led to adjusted EPS growth of 36% to $10.88.

I’ll now move on to the balance sheet, beginning with inventory. With inventories up 58% or $106 million year-over-year on a FIFO basis, we are in a good position to capture the sales momentum we built. Inventory levels at the beginning of the year were lower than optimal as demand outpaced inventory purchases throughout 2021. And we were unable to accelerate inventory purchases to keep up the demand. Additionally, two other factors contributed to the inventory growth. $20 million of additional inventory from our acquisition of Johnny Was and the early receipt of about $20 million — excuse me, of about $25 million of incremental inventory to mitigate the risk of potential supply chain disruptions, increased raised inventory balances as well.

Our planned revenue growth which is 45% over where we were in 2019, outpaces our FIFO inventory growth of 37% over the same time period even with the early receipt of product. Further, with our strategic focus on core and key products in recent years, our inventory has a much greater mix of core and key product items rather than fashion items which reduces inventory risk. From a liquidity standpoint, we had $9 million of cash and cash equivalents versus $210 million of cash and cash equivalents and short-term investments at the end of 2021. We used our cash and cash equivalents and short-term investments to help fund our acquisition of Johnny Was. After considering our robust cash flow from operations, the acquisition of Johnny Was, capital expenditures and other items as well as our $127 million of capital returned to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends.

We had $119 million of borrowings outstanding under our $325 million revolving credit agreement at the end of 2022. I will also note that earlier this month, we amended our $325 million revolving credit agreement to extend the maturity of that agreement from July of 2024 to March of 2028. For all practical purposes, the asset-based loan agreement is consistent with the prior agreement other than extending the term, converting LIBOR to SOFR plus 10 basis points, increasing the spreads on variable interest rate borrowings by 25 basis points and an increase in certain amounts allowable for inclusion as eligible assets for the borrowing base calculation. Over the last year, we have returned $127 million of capital directly to shareholders via dividends and open market share repurchases.

$92 million of this came from repurchasing 1 million shares during 2022, representing the December 2022 completion of our 100 million share repurchase program initiated in the fourth quarter of 2021. In total, we purchased more than 6% of the outstanding shares from the commencement date of that program. Looking forward, I am pleased to announce that our Board of Directors declared a dividend of $0.65 per share for the first quarter of 2023 payable in April which is an increase of 18% from the prior quarter’s dividend of $0.55. I’ll now spend some time on our outlook for 2023. For the full year, we expect net sales to be between $1.62 billion and $1.66 billion, growth of 15% to 18% compared to sales of $1.41 billion in 2022. The increased sales plan in the 53-week 2023 includes the benefit of the full year of Johnny Was as well as growth in our existing brands in the mid-single-digit range which consists of full price brick-and-mortar and e-commerce channel growth, generally flat wholesale and outlet store sales and lower e-commerce flash sales at Lilly Pulitzer, as Lilly Pulitzer is not having an e-commerce flash sale in the first quarter of 2023.

We anticipate modest gross margin expansion in 2023, including the expectation of a higher proportion of full-price direct-to-consumer sales and a lower proportion of e-commerce flash and wholesale sales and the inclusion of the higher gross margin Johnny Was business for the full year 2023. These higher sales and improved gross margins are expected to be partially offset by increased SG&A which is expected to grow at a rate higher than sales in 2023 as we invest in our business, including information technology spend and SG&A, higher employment cost, additional brick-and-mortar locations opening in 2023 and increased depreciation expense resulting from both IT spend and brick-and-mortar locations. Considering all these items, we expect that operating margin will decrease modestly from 2022 levels.

Additionally, we anticipate higher interest expense at $5 million to $6 million, with about half that interest expense in the first quarter, smaller increases in the second and third quarters and a decrease in the fourth quarter. This compares to $3 million of interest expense in the full year of 2022. We also expect significantly higher effective tax rate of between 25% and 26% compared to 23% in 2022 which benefited from certain favorable items such as prior year operating loss utilizations and the reversal of some valuation allowances. After considering these items, 2023 adjusted EPS is expected to be between $11.50 and $11.90 versus adjusted EPS of $10.88 last year with the inclusion of a full year of operating income of Johnny Was and increased operating income in our existing businesses being partially offset by the increased income tax expense and interest expense.

In the first quarter of 2023, we expect sales of $405 million to $425 million compared to sales of $353 million in the first quarter of 2022. In the first quarter of 2023, we expect many of the same factors driving our results that impact the year with higher sales, modest gross margin improvement, some SG&A deleveraging, higher interest expense and a higher effective tax rate. We expect this to result in first quarter adjusted EPS of between $3.60 and $3.80 compared to $3.50 in the first quarter of 2022. Expanding on the theme of 2023 being an investment year, I’d like to briefly discuss our CapEx outlook for 2023. Capital expenditures in fiscal 2023 are expected to be approximately $90 million compared to $47 million in fiscal 2022. The planned increase is primarily due to increased investment in our various direct-to-consumer technology systems initiatives, the commencement of a significant multiyear project at Alliance torch distribution center to enhance its direct-to-consumer throughput capabilities, executing on our pipeline of Marlin Bars, including 3 expected to open in 2023.

The addition of Johnny Was which is increasing its store count by 10 or more stores this year and increases in store openings in our other brands. We expect this elevated capital expenditure level to continue into 2024 before it begins to moderate in 2025. Moving beyond the income statement. We have a positive outlook on our cash and liquidity position as well. Cash flow from operations are expected to be very strong, giving us ample room to make the previously mentioned investments fund an 18% increase to a quarterly dividend while also delevering throughout the year. Thank you for your time today. And now we’ll turn the call over for questions. Stacy?

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Q&A Session

Operator: Your first question comes from Ed Yruma with Piper Sandler.

Ed Yruma: I guess, first, Tom, on the shared services, I know you guys historically run a very decentralized organization. So I just wanted to unpack maybe some of the investments you’re making. Does it change kind of the orientation of the business? And then I guess as we think in the medium term, when should we expect a resumption of SG&A leverage?

Tom Chubb: Okay. Thank you, Ed. So the — our objective really with the utilized part of the company here at headquarters is what we want to do is look at all the key functions that you need to be good at to be successful at to successfully run a lifestyle brand. And then our approach to that is to drive excellence in each of those key functions, make sure that each of the brands is functioning at a very high level in each of those key functions. And then as we say, bundling where appropriate. And what that means is we will do things on a shared services basis where it makes sense to do so. We’re not going to just default to that but we’ll do it where it makes sense to do so. And the example I gave in the prepared remarks which I think we may have discussed with you previously, was that with respect to the Emerging Brands group, the 3 smaller brands, we thought that in order to be able to achieve the excellence that they need to have in digital marketing to be successful as lifestyle brands that we needed to bundle that digital marketing effort.

So we did exactly that. We established and built a digital marketing center of excellence during 2022. We started about 1/3 of the way through the year. And by the last 1/3 of the year, we were going wide open in that function and we’re very pleased that it’s achieved very good results within the Emerging Brands Group and that was part of the reason that they were able to deliver that 29% year-over-year growth. Then we talked about also during the prepared remarks, establishing an enterprise-wide corporate responsibility department, that’s focused mainly on what I would call ESG-type efforts. As you know, very well and we’ve always been a company that’s been about doing the right thing. And there is now both market and regulatory impetus to do more in the ESG front.

Tommy Bahama, our largest brand, had been out front on this and had set up their own corporate responsibility function which was highly professionals and great people working in it. And what we decided was that, that was a function that all the brands need to be excellent at once again and so — but we also thought that we would benefit from the scale of doing that on an enterprise-wide basis. So we centralized that as well. We actually moved the Tommy Bahama team over made them a corporate enterprise-wide function. So that’s sort of a thought process that we’re going through it. We’re not going to centralize everything. Things like product design, we’ll never centralize. I don’t think. Things that are very customer facing and directly touching the customer.

I don’t think that we’re going to centralize. In those areas, we’ll just focus on making sure that we’re excellent. And then in areas where we think there is an economic advantage to bundling we’ll do that. Does that help?

Ed Yruma: Yes, it does. And on the SG&A, when can we kind of pencil in resumption of leverage on that line?

Scott Grassmyer: Yes. As we said in the prepared remarks, we expect some deleveraging this year. And hopefully, when we get into ’24, that will start turning. But we’ve got a lot of investments in system projects and we also are adding some resources in the form of people in some key areas. We also have a lot of retail activity going on and including 3 Marlin Bars. And as you know, these Marlin Bars from the time you take the session until you open, it’s about a 6-month period. So you have all the preopening costs, including going through your P&L. So we have a lot of items but there are exciting items that I think are going to help fuel future growth of the business. And to be honest with you, we’re playing a little bit of catch-up on SG&A.