Shagun Singh: Got it. And just as a follow up, I think you’re talking about extending of the capital sale cycle. We did get some news around GLP-1 that’s impacted the stock. I think year-over-year growth this year is somewhere around 13%. Is there any color you can provide into 2024? I think consensus is looking for 35% year-over-year growth at this point. I’m just wondering if you can just put all that into context, and any color you can provide on 2024, and how we should think about the setup for Outset. Thank you for taking the questions.
Leslie Trigg: Sure. Thank you for the question. Maybe Nabeel, I’ll take the first part of that on GLP-1 and turn it over to you. So no, I sort of don’t expect, absolutely no impact from GLP-1 this year, next year or many years to come. Stepping back a bit though from that comment in our market, it’s obviously very important to break this down by prevalence and incidence. The prevalent ESRD population, which stands again, for end stage renal disease, the prevalent ESRD patient population today is 600,000 just in the U.S. alone. Those patients ESRD patients do have irreversible kidney failure. GLP-1 will have no effect on that. They will be on dialysis for the rest of their lives. Now that said there is a 20% annual mortality rate amongst dialysis patients and the number one cause of that 20% mortality rate is cardiovascular disease, cardiovascular events more specifically.
So our view is if GLP-1 significantly reduced CV disease and CV events, it could substantially lower the mortality rate in this prevalent population. And then that would of course imply that the prevalent population could grow substantially over time. So that’s part one on the 600,000 patients prevalent population. Now on the intimate [ph] side, there are 37 million patients with chronic kidney disease in the U.S. alone. It’s the chronic kidney disease population that then feeds what we call the new starts every year. The market model that underpins our $11.5 billion TAM, that market — our market model assumes 130,000 new dialysis starts per year. Again, that means 130,000 chronic kidney disease patients are going to progress on to dialysis every year.
That’s what underpins our $11-plus billion TAM. That 130,000 new start number is 0.36% of the 37 million people with CKD in the United States. In the CKD population as well, the number one cause of mortality is also cardiovascular disease. Where again, GLP-1 has the potential to extend life. So in summary — and I’m happy to take more questions on this, but I want to turn it over to Nabeel, this is a very, very, very large patient population with comorbidities that tie directly to cardiovascular disease. We believe that we’re likely to see an extension of life in the prevalent population, an extension of life in the CKD population. And our market model around $11.5 billion TAM assumes only 0.36% of that very large CKD population ever progressing on to dialysis each year.
So with that, I’ll leave it there for now and I don’t know if you have any thoughts about ’24 Nabeel.
Nabeel Ahmed: Yeah, so just Shagun, with respect to kind of the long term, with the size of our end market as Leslie alluded to $11 billion and Tablo’s differentiated position, we believe we have ample opportunity to grow over the long term to grow in a sustained manner over the long term. Now with respect to 2024, we will give additional color on our November call.
Shagun Singh: Thank you.
Operator: Thank you. I’m showing no further question. At this time, I’d like to turn the call back over to Lesley Trigg, CEO for any closing remarks.
Leslie Trigg: Thank you. We look forward to seeing many of you at the upcoming ASN meeting in November and of course sharing more detail from the quarter and about our forward-looking outlook on the November call. Have a good evening.
Operator: Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today’s conference. Thank you all for participating. You may all disconnect. Have a great day.
