Orchid Island Capital, Inc. (NYSE:ORC) Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

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Jim Fowler: Good morning, Bob and Hunter. Thank you for taking the question. Also, as always, I really appreciate the work you do on the market development section, a great recap. The question I have pertains to page 31. I think that tells the story behind my question. With the economic exit now for the quarter approaching where you were in early 2022, I’m wondering, since we went through the period where you were most supposed to lower coupons in having more economic basis that sensibly resulted in the dividend reduction [indiscernible]. I’m wondering, how many quarters 230 basis points, 240 plus basis points of economic basis, you will let tick by until you address the dividend again?

Robert Cauley: Good question. Good to talk to you, Jim. Definitely a good question. We’re very much aware of that management and the board. It is January, so we do need to see how things evolve. I would say that there was definitely room for expansion to the dividend. I still lean that way, but today was a bit of a shock. I didn’t really expect to see non-fund perils per 353,000. Who knows what this might mean for the Fed? I do want to be somewhat guarded in getting ahead of myself. If we were to see a wage price spiral emerge and the Fed starts talking about hiking again, that obviously could change things. Absent that, I don’t like to say on a recorded phone that we’re going to do something to the dividend that gets myself in trouble, but I think we kind of painted a picture that would lead you to believe that there is room for expansion.

Jim Fowler: Yes, great. The second question, if I might, more just going on your experience, then Hunter’s as well, a lot of commentary from peers over the past earnings period that this trading basis of 140 bps to 190 basis points has been resilient. You alluded to being at a conference recently and you’re certainly in the market on an active basis. What do you think would give rise to maybe that band of spreads reducing to maybe 120 bps to 150 bps or a level where the lower end and the upper end ratchet down a bit? Do you see that happening? Your comments on banks being in the market are interesting. It just seems like people talk about it programmatically. Buy at 190 basis points, sell at 140 basis points, rinse and repeat. I’m wondering if you’re saying there’s a reason for belief that either where that band ratchets down a bit? Thank you for taking the questions.

Robert Cauley: I would say — I’ll let Hunter answer. I would say the re-emergence of the banks. It’s possible if the REIT sector went on a significant capital raising period and became large buyers that they could drive them down and they probably would on how far. The bigger gorilla would be the banks coming back because they’ve been downsizing their holdings. As the feds drain reserves, not dollar for dollar necessarily, but they’ve been reducing exposure. That has changed slightly. If they were to come back into the market more meaningfully, that would get us back down. In order for that to happen, I really think you need to see the curve, more spread in the curve. You need to see it moving towards a normalization of the curve and dis-inversion. If that were to happen, then you would expect that to happen fairly quickly.

Hunter Haas: At first, we were all very thankful for the money manager’s community stepping in. As you alluded to in the prior call, I was referring to the 200 bps over market, 190 bps, 200 bps, whatever the top of that range is. Now we all are starting to get a little seasick from the overweight underweight as we bounce around that range you alluded to. I think the banks are certainly key. Today, it took a little bit of the wind out of the sails of that happening sooner than later. I don’t know if we’re going to get our Fed eases quite as quickly as the market was anticipating. Maybe 2024 is a market where we’re waiting for the Fed to come back and see when and if the Fed goes. I think the very fact that the curve is so inverted, people are starting to pull some of that forward.

We look at funding levels that have been prior to today, you can lock up 350 bps pretty quickly. You don’t have to go out 10 years to get 350 basis points of hedged funding by paying fixed on swap. The front end of the curve is very inverted. I suspect that while that’s not a standard bank play, to the extent that they can help alleviate their NIMS by pulling some of that forward, they’ve got to be looking at it. I know we are. I think a little bit of that baked in easing is going to be helpful to the extent that people can pull it forward and that’s going to be supportive of increased yields and increased demand for redeployment of income.

Operator: [Operator Instructions] With no further questions, I’ll turn the call back over to Mr. Calley.

Robert Cauley: Thank you, operator. Thank you, everybody, for tuning in. To the extent anybody has any questions that come up after the call, please feel free to call us. Or if you have a question that comes up after you listen to the replay because you couldn’t make it this morning, again, feel free to call. The office number is 772-231-1400. Otherwise, we look forward to speaking to you again at the end of the first quarter. Thank you.

Operator: Thank you. And this does conclude today’s conference call. You may now disconnect.

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