That’s the green line on that chart. And you can see in that chart, the green line continues to be below 2019. So that gives us confidence. And then on Page 10 of the deck, we also shared what the 30 plus day delinquency rates look like from September to January. And all of those continue to be better at or near 2019 levels. So that’s the other thing that really gives us confidence, John, when we think about the front book, right, those loans that we’ve made since the tightening. And then finally, though, you didn’t ask, when we look at the overall picture, we look at a declining back book, and we chose in this quarter to show it to you as just dollars to really try to emphasize the point of how much that back book is shrinking. So you can see that it was $1.6 billion at the end of Q1.
It will decline by $400 million this quarter and then another $500 million in the remainder of the year. So as that continues to decline, the front book becomes a bigger and bigger proportion of our book overall and we’ll start to see a better delinquency and losses picture emerge.
John Hecht: Great. Thanks for all that detail. Thank you.
Raul Vazquez: Thank you, John.
Operator: Our next question comes from Rick Shane with J.P. Morgan. Please state your question.
Rick Shane: Thanks guys. Really two questions. One is that when we looked at the repayment rate for the first quarter, it seems a little bit lower than we would have necessarily expected given seasonality and given some of the tightening in terms of credit. Is that just noise or is there something going on there that we should be aware of?
Jonathan Coblentz: Hey Rick, it’s Jonathan. I think that’s consistent with what we’ve been saying about tax returns, tax refunds being lower for our customers. So with less cash flow, you would see seasonally lower payment rates.
Raul Vazquez: And Rick, this is Raula. As you know, you’ve heard us say this over the years, that tax refund tends to be one of the largest checks that our members get all year. And a data point that I read last week indicates that tax refunds ended up being 28% lower year-over-year. So as you can imagine, if that’s one of the biggest checks our members get and it’s almost 30% lower, that would impact their – the ability to repay at a rate that we’ve seen historically in Q1.
Rick Shane: Got it. And obviously that rolls into the Q2 credit outlook, which makes sense.
Raul Vazquez: That’s right.
Rick Shane: The other thing obviously that stands out is when you look at the vintage curves clearly under performance of the 2021 vintage, but what stands out to me is that normally by about this time you start to see the curve flatten out and it continues to really have a upward sloping trajectory. When – what should we be looking for to see that start to inflect?
Raul Vazquez: Well, I think that’s the part of the book that, that we’re actively managing, Rick. That’s if you think about 2021, that was the vintage that really, really felt the impact of high inflation that felt the impact of just all the elements that we’ve been talking about higher rents, higher gas prices, that’s the curve that we would’ve seen really start to flatten out in a normal tax season. So yes, we’ll have more information to provide next quarter because that’s really where our collections and analytics teams are focused is just figuring out how do we get in touch with those members? How do we figure out the best way to help them so that that way they can get back to the normal payment behavior that we would expect to see?
