Opendoor Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ:OPEN) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Dod Fraser: Yep. So I think — if you think about our business model, we’re trying to give customers choice. We are — and we’re trying — we’re focused on giving transparency to process and letting them pick the best solution for them. And I think if you look at our NPS scores and sort of how customers have reacted to the product, they love our product. So I think we’re very well positioned to continue to offer these products to customers. I think on the data side, obviously we have been building our own data store now for 10 years. And so we feel, I think, we are almost at one of the best positions to capitalize on any data components, especially [indiscernible]. So I think we are well positioned on all fronts and whatever unfolds, I do think, as Carrie mentioned, these things likely unfold slowly, but in either a slow unfolding or a fast unfolding, I think we’re well positioned for it.

Ryan Tomasello: Great. Thanks, Dod.

Operator: Thank you. [Operator Instructions] Our next question comes from the line of Jason Helfstein with Oppenheimer & Company. Your line is now open.

Chad Larkin: Hey, thanks. This is Chad on for Jason. Can you maybe help us quantify the slowdown from rates coming out of the quarter as it relates to the fourth quarter guidance? It kind of sounds like in the letter you’re still confident in hitting the $10 billion run-rate target at, sometime in ‘24. So just kind of trying to understand how you ramp to kind of three times what the fourth quarter revenue is going to be. Thank you.

Carrie Wheeler: Yeah, I mean, there are a series of charts in the back of the shareholder letter, actually, if you want. You can take a look at sort of like the pace of market clearance. I think John made this comment earlier. It remains healthy by any historical measure. But, and we always know it slows seasonally in the back half of the year, but there’s a little extra slowdown starting in October on the back of seeing mortgage rates spike up to 8%, maybe 10-15% worse than we anticipated. So we reacted to that. We took some moves as we outlined in shareholder letter and you’re seeing that show up in our guide for Q4. I think the more important point is like where do we go from here and what does that look like for us for 2024 and are we on pace to like hit the volume targets we’ve been talking about, which is, how do we double?

How do we go from 1,000 to kind of 2,000 plus per month? And sitting here today, there’s really nothing I’m seeing that would suggest we should change course. As Dod mentioned earlier, we’re looking for price stability. We’ve actually seen that this year. We’ve seen very constrained supply, people reluctant to list their homes, pretty resilient buyer demand relative to that constrained supply. And that dynamic has persisted. And we — frankly, our forecast for [run rate] (ph), it will continue [indiscernible] for 2024. And that’s a good set-up for us to value homes, be able to acquire them and then sell them against that backdrop. Second, we’ve got seasonality. Coming up here, we’re in the sort of seasonal doldrums of residential real estate right now.

Those headwinds turn into tailwinds starting the first part of next year. So those home purchases we make today, so I’d say we tend to like those a lot and we will be listing those in this stronger spring selling season. That’s a good thing for volumes. And then there’s been — on top of that, there’s a lot of work done this year to take spreads down. A lot of cost work, a lot of work done to improve price accuracy. We’ve invested a lot of those gains back into spreads to take them down to a level we feel is appropriate for where the market is today. And at that level we’re able to invest more into marketing on a cost-effective basis. Again, that will help amplify volumes in Q1. And we’ve got partnership channels that are growing that will also be enabled by that.