Opendoor Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ:OPEN) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Dod Fraser: Yeah, Dae. I think on the — on your macro question, I think there’s a couple points, some what I mentioned a moment ago, which are from a market clearance perspective or the pace of resales, that is still above historical norms, excluding ‘21 and ‘22, which were outliers, we are still seeing very healthy pace of resales and a balance of supply and demand. I think the place that we are focused is really monitoring for supplier demand shocks that would then translate through to home price changes. We have not seen those, but one of the advantages of our business model and the ability to adjust spreads rapidly is exactly that, which is if we see a change, we can adapt quickly.

Christy Schwartz: And then just to close things off with A&I breakeven, our framework hasn’t changed. The whole organization is focused on returning to cash flow breakeven. The timeline depends on what we’re seeing in the housing market, which continues to be dynamic, and we will continue to respond to market signals, and therefore we aren’t going to commit to a specific month. As a business, we’re always balancing growth, margin, and risk. In 2023, we were focused on risk, which led to reduced growth, but outperformance on new book margins. In 2024, we’ll continue to balance growth, margin and risk, and we will track leading real-time metrics. That said, sitting here today, we do believe that doubling volumes from here is achievable, given current spreads, our growing partnership channels, and plans for cost-effective marketing investment in the first half of 2024.

Dae Lee: Great. That all makes sense. Thank you.

Operator: Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Ryan Tomasello with KBW. You’re line is now open.

Ryan Tomasello: Hi, everyone. Thanks for taking the questions. Just to drill down again on OpEx, any chance you can just provide some absolute guardrails for the level of OpEx needed to support perhaps a wide range of purchase volume assumptions next year? I guess the $120 million in the fourth quarter, is that something — that obviously doesn’t include the marketing spend, but as you mentioned, is certainly being burdened by higher holding costs. So any just general guardrails relative to the $120 million in 4Q for what is a reasonable expectation for next year?

Christy Schwartz: Hi, Ryan. It’s Christy. Thanks for the question. You know, for A&I breakeven, we expect that to happen at $10 billion steady state revenue, meaning acquisitions are roughly equal to resales. And so at $10 billion with 4% to 5% adjusted OpEx, that’s what we’re marching towards. As I discussed earlier, as we’re building revenue, you can have — sorry, building inventory, you can have build-up in operating expense for the holding costs that you’re incurring as your inventory is kind of outpacing your revenue. Yeah.

Dod Fraser: I think the one other point to add on to that is if you think about our operating costs in sort of 4Q versus 3Q, taking aside those time adjustments, those are basically flat quarters. So we are, I think, trying to continue to be disciplined about cost management. And to your point, the real change will be in marketing spending.

Ryan Tomasello: Got it. And then a follow-up, just to not belabor the point on the commission lawsuits, but in addition to the one question that Nick posed earlier, another question that we’re getting is around the potential disruption to the MLS system and the impact that that could have to open, on the one hand, you could argue that a weaker value proposition to use the MLS could provide more flexibility for sellers to consider an alternative innovative model like Opendoor. And on the other, it’s possible — is it possible that a disruption to the MLS could pose a risk to any data that you rely on from those databases to power your pricing models? Obviously a dense topic, but just trying to unpack all the different moving pieces here and the puts and takes.