OPAL Fuels Inc. (NASDAQ:OPAL) Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

So that is our — what we are going to do is keep our head down, execute on the plan in front of us. But from a float perspective, you saw last year that we started the at the money equity program that we disclosed and then most recently this week with the disclosure of the voting change that we disclosed where we expect that voting change is aimed at having us picked up by some low cap — small cap stock index providers. So that would hopefully add some attraction to our stock. But I really think that at the end of the day it’s really executing on what’s in front of us and the growth that will bring about that will result in a stronger stock price. One last point on that, obviously we have seen some precedent transactions going on in the market and those private transactions give us a lot of optimism about the value of our company relative to the stock price.

The value of our company when you market to a transaction such as the Enbridge Morrow transaction at $1.2 billion, where they had a similar amount of gas in operation, but no real development pipeline and no downstream dispensing really gives us a lot of comfort as to the overall value that we are sitting on today and that we are creating in the very near future.

Operator: [Operator Instructions] Our next question comes from Adam Bubes with Goldman Sachs.

Adam Bubes: It looks like in fuel station services margin stepped up by over 800 basis points sequentially. Is that seasonality or what’s going on under the hood that drives that strong performance sequentially? And as we think about the moving pieces, where are gross margins for dispensing, third-party construction and O&M tracking respectively?

Adam Comora: The fourth quarter did benefit from some additional RIN monetization in LCFS credit sales. As we had mentioned, fourth quarter in general benefited from it and certainly a portion of that flows through on fuel station services. That being said, we see gross margins improving quite a bit in 2024 versus 2023 both from utilizing our more RNG flowing through our dispensing network and seeing improving margins both in the construction and the service piece as well. In 2023, we still had a little bit of a lag effect in fuel station services from inflation rolling through some of our construction revenues on that side, and we’ve moved through that piece of it. I think that was all your questions.

Adam Bubes: And then separately, the U.S. Treasury and IRS still need to finalize 45Z guidance. So how and when do you see regulations playing out? And then at the same time 45Z comes online, I believe the alternative fuel excise tax credit would be rolling off. What’s the magnitude of tailwind that you receive from the alternative fuel tax credit or does that flow mostly to your partners?

Adam Comora: Adam, I appreciate that because that was also one other thing I wanted to hit upon. I just wanted to remind everybody in our fuel station service segment, we have zero nat gas commodity price risk. That flows all the way through as a variable cost to our fleet customers. So we do not have any impact from a relationship between nat gas and oil and those sorts of things. So all the margin improvement that we’re talking about is from that increasing RNG moving through our network and those other items that I mentioned. Also on the AFTC side, we have negligible impact from AFTC where that was also a pass through benefit to our fleet customers. So it’s under $1 million in terms of how much AFTC profitability we have received.

In terms of timing on the 45Z, I do not want to set any timelines out of treasury because each time we do they seem to be a little bit later or that sort of thing. We’ve been waiting for how they’re going to do the carbon intensity scoring on 45Z. I’m hopeful we’re going to see it pretty soon. That’s one of the biggest pieces to see how they’re going to score landfill and dairy. And certainly, we do benefit more so from dairy and even some of the gas we’re going to be dispensing on the dairy side. But we don’t know yet how they’re going to treat the really negative ultra-low CI stuff. And we don’t know yet on the landfill side, A, how they’re going to bucket that feedstock and whether they’re not going to, they’re going to allow for individual improvements to those CI scores.

We’re hopeful we’re going to see it pretty soon. And as I had mentioned earlier too, there could be a potential where cellulosic or renewable electricity could be seen as a transportation fuel in that 45Z. We think the way we read it, it certainly could. And it’ll be interesting to see how we what kind of CI scores could get associated with that.

Adam Bubes: And then maybe if I could just hit one more in here. Can you expand on the potential for greater than 2 million MMBtu going into construction this year? Just any color on specific project details and cadence would be great.

Jonathan Maurer: Well, we’ve discussed a lot about our relationships. You’re obviously aware of our relationships with GFL, with WM, with SJI and a couple of the projects that we’ve been discussing associated with those. Well, we’re not prepared to talk about specific additional projects. We do believe that there’s been a little bit of let’s say a backlog and that as that backlog gets relieved, you’ll see additional projects coming into construction. We discussed a little bit about what some of those projects might look like, but principally looking at growth in the landfill area and that’s our principal focus and we’ve talked about some of those counterparties that we’re growing. And so we do have a great deal of confidence that those improving relationships combined with really our delivering consistently projects that work right out of the box and that operate with high degrees of availability and will really in our downstream vertically integrated model of delivering into the highest value off-take market will continue to increase our opportunity set there.