Ollie’s Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:OLLI) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

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Eric Cohen: Hi, Kate, it’s Eric. Yes, we are seeing the higher income consumer continue to trade down, that’s been a trend now for — really for several quarters, pretty similar rate when you look at Q3 — Q4 versus Q3, and we are seeing the fixed income consumer begin to stabilize now where we were seeing a trade out effect over the last several quarters. We’re not seeing the fixed income consumer stabilized, it is closer to flat to historical periods. We actually don’t have the data to be able to tell you at least at hand to tell you which categories they’re gravitating to. So not able to answer that question.

Kate McShane: Okay. And our second question is just with regards to the guidance, again, the comp of 1% to 2%, which you said is being conservative. How are you incorporating the thoughts of any shifting share of wallet that might still take place during 2023 from goods to services?

John Swygert: Yes, Kate. We don’t really look at the shifting of the wallet. We look at the deal flow and the deals we’re able to secure for our customers to motivate the consumer to come in the store and shop. That being the closeout model, it’s a little bit different than most retailers. So the deal flow kind of gives us the indication of our strength and confidence of the customers coming to us and needing what we’re offering to them.

Kate McShane: Thank you.

John Swygert: Thank you.

Operator: Thank you. One moment for our next question. And our next question comes from the line of Edward Kelly from Wells Fargo. Your question please.

Edward Kelly: Yeah. Hi guys. Good morning.

John Swygert: Good morning, Ed.

Edward Kelly: I just wanted to start on just a follow-up, I guess, on the gross margin. You talked about a bit more modest improvement in the back half of the year, but I think you should have some decent freight coming in as well. Like I thought you got, you really got hit on spot in Q4 of 2021 and I think you contracted for a lot of last year. So maybe just a little bit more color on back half gross margin and maybe why you wouldn’t see a bit more improvement? And then John, as you think about like the 40% number, what’s holding you back from getting there in 2023 and is it something that’s possible things fall your way?

John Swygert: Yeah, Ed. I’ll answer the last question first and Rob can take the rest of the question. Is it possible — what’s holding us back, the elevated freight cost and supply chain costs that we have embedded in our numbers, but they are still not back to pre-COVID levels by any means. But with that said, if deal flow continues to be as robust as it is today, there is a possibility, but we’re still dealing with some mix. There is still a mix shift change that we’re having with lower margin consumable product selling at a higher rate. So I think the prudent thing to do with the margin it came off of last year, 39.1% to 39.3% is a great improvement, and if we can do better we’re definitely going to do better than that, but I do think we have a pretty good chance of getting back to that 40% gross margin in 2024.

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