Olin Corporation (NYSE:OLN) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

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Todd Slater : Angel, thanks for the question. This is Todd. I think historically, we’ve talked in the $1 per MMBtu in North America was worth about plus or minus $50 million to our annual P&L. I think directionally, that still is a good metric for you to think about. But as Scott mentioned earlier about gas, you know we’re a hedger, so those high-priced numbers you saw during 2022, those sort of got paired off we didn’t experience them. And maybe here in the very short run, because we’re a hedger some of the dips in gas, you won’t see that benefit running through immediately in our system.

Angel Castillo : Got it. That’s very helpful. What about caustic and chlorine and other kind of ?

Todd Slater : Yes. I mean that was — our model really is a dependent on cost or cost variability at all. So I wouldn’t model any impact from gas, especially with the fact that we hedge.

Angel Castillo : I’m sorry, I meant the pricing, for instance, like a $1 change in the price, cost vehicle .

Todd Slater : Yes. No, I appreciate the question, but I don’t think we’re going to go through and probably exactly quantify what difference a certain change in price of a commodity and a public index might have on our bottom line. First of all, we don’t — all of our business certainly doesn’t follow the index. And second of all, normally when something is going down, we’re getting the value somewhere else.

Angel Castillo : Understood. No worries. And then second question, just going back to some of the discussions around the macro and some of the demand picture of what you’ve been seeing. You noted, I think, in the slide, vinyl troughing here in the first quarter and epoxy improving in the second half. I was curious, one, as we think about the 2023 outlook, how much of this — are you seeing anything in orders that gives you confidence in those rebounds? Is it more just destocking abating? Or anything that — how do you get kind of comfortable with those factors? And then as you think about just overall kind of recovery in some of that, how much of it is macro versus your ability to pull levers in parlay?

Scott Sutton : I mean we’ll start with epoxy. I mean it’s — of course, it’s very challenged right now as we’ve tried to lay out. But Damian, do you want to give a little guidance on back half.

Damian Gumpel : Sure. I mean when we look at some of the factors in the back half, we’re seeing some improved demand. I think you see the news. China, as I said, being the largest consuming region of epoxy, it’s looking like it’s emerging from its almost a year-long slumber. But we also see other areas that are starting to pull epoxies as well. If we highlighted our growth platforms and our macro trends around wind, infrastructure, electrification, mobility. Those are all that — we’re already starting to see some of that demand profile improved with our valued customers. So it’s a combination of what we see in the landscape, but more purposely, our participation in some of these platforms that are going to look to drive some improved demand recovery in the second half.

Scott Sutton : And because we’re running out of time, I’ll just shortchange the vinyls answer. And there has been some light improvement in EDC pricing there. So thanks.

Operator: Our next question will come from Eric Petrie with Citi.

Eric Petrie: What’s embedded in your earnings outlook in terms of China and domestic consumption and at the end of last year, we saw a ramp-up of exports in epoxy as well as caustic soda. So any comments on those export levels into 2023 and impact on earnings?

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