Olin Corporation (NYSE:OLN) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

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Operator: The next question is a follow-up from Jeff Zekauskas from JPMorgan. Please go ahead.

Jeff Zekauskas: Thanks very much. You talk about the shutdown of capacity as an initiative to, I think, attempt to tighten up the markets. But you also have a sort of a new trough EBITDA on an annual basis, which looks to me like it’s maybe $1.3 billion, something like that. Does that new trough imply that your initiative will be successful or unsuccessful? Where does that trough estimation stand relative to the initiative that you’re trying to execute?

Scott Sutton: Yes, yes. I mean, Jeff, I mean, yes — I mean, I think you’ve got it right there that, yes, we’re going to do roughly $1.3 billion this year. And that results — that result incorporates a couple of quarters where conditions have been quite challenging and we’ve had to pay the price to run a very deep initiative. So yes, you’re right. I mean that’s a trough, that $1.3 billion. And that trough, of course, just happens to be higher than the highest peak of any prior cycle before we started running this model, just FYI.

Jeff Zekauskas: Yes. And then for my follow-up, the — I think in the third quarter, the costs of the VCM plant not running were maybe about $50 million. And so in the fourth quarter, we’re going to go — well, from the third to the fourth, we’re going to go from, call it, $300 million to $200 million. But with the VCM plant, wouldn’t that be on the margin sort of a $50 million benefit? So where is the extra margin pressure coming from in the fourth quarter? That is, why isn’t the fourth quarter EBITDA more like $250 million rather than $200 million?

Scott Sutton: Yes. Yes, I mean, you got it, Jeff. You’re right. I mean we had an extra penalty during the third quarter of that $50 million that we don’t have in the fourth quarter, right? But there’s quite a number of other things at play across the business. And for example, because a big chunk of our caustic business is still priced on public trade indices, those public trade indices have dropped in fourth quarter relative to third quarter. So you’ve got that impact going on, on top of everything that we’re doing, as one example.

Jeff Zekauskas: Okay. Great. Thank you so much.

Scott Sutton: Sure.

Operator: And our next question is a follow-up from Aleksey Yefremov from KeyBanc Capital Markets.

Aleksey Yefremov: Scott, I appreciate that you don’t want to comment on actions with your competitors. But I guess your strategy kind of depends on them not filling the supply deficit or supply balance that you’re trying to create as your strategy. Why wouldn’t your competitors just fill the room that you’re creating for them?

Todd Slater: Look, I can’t comment and don’t need to comment on what competitors might do. Our strategy is totally not dependent on their actions. So I just can’t — I really just can’t comment on that. Of course, when we pull back, those volumes might be filled in for a temporary period of time. But as they’re filled in, it’s a tightening of supply and demand, which gives us benefit.

Aleksey Yefremov: Okay. Thanks, Todd.

Todd Slater: Okay.

Operator: As there are no further questions, this concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Scott Sutton for closing comments.

Scott Sutton: Yes. No, I’d just say thanks a lot, Jason. Thanks to everyone for joining us today. We appreciate the questions. Thanks.

Operator: Thank you for attending today’s presentation. You may now disconnect.

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