And in fact, for the first time ever as evidence that we’re going to move that way for the first time ever in Q3, the consumer piece of the Winchester business is going to be less than 50% of that business and the military plus other is the larger part of it.
Arun Viswanathan: And just so I’m clear, you said there’s a lot of drivers for 2024, 2025, so do you expect to maybe get closer to that peak by 2025, 2026, or what’s the timing on that thing?
Scott Sutton: Well, I don’t have a specific time, but it is going to take a couple years.
Arun Viswanathan: Thanks.
Scott Sutton: Yes.
Operator: Thank you. And the next question comes from Vincent Andrews with Morgan Stanley.
Vincent Andrews: Yes, thanks guys. Just continuing on the sort of peak cycle definition, just thinking back to the last peak, obviously very unique period of time where you had lots of supply outages and supply chain issues and obviously very strong demand and significant stocking that’s obviously reversing now. I assume, Scott, you’re looking for in the next peak cycle, sort of a more traditional peak cycle where it’s just tight utilization rates from supply and demand. But is that the case or are you sort of also assuming there’ll be some exotica on the operational side? And then where would your operating rates be in that scenario? Would you actually be running full out or would you still be managing the situation volumetrically in order to achieve that level of EBITDA?
Scott Sutton: Yes. Yes, I mean, thanks for the question. Look, I would say that okay, it’s a bit more traditional there as global demand, again, outpaces global supply. I would say a situation like we had coming out of COVID that kind of volatility where demand is overstimulated for whatever the case is certainly on top of what we’re showing as our peak cycle right now. I don’t think that we should expect that everything will be smooth, right? I mean, traditionally these supply chains have faced all kind of challenges and volatility, but you really haven’t seen that over the last 18 months, at least not in a way that impacted supply demand. As demand climbs back as some mass comes out of the trade flows that’s being injected into the trade flows today by Asia driven by China, as that changes, you’ll start to see some of those problems with the supply chain likely exposed again.
Vincent Andrews: Okay. And if I could just ask on the reduction in the cash flow obviously commensurate with the reduction in EBITDA, but in terms of use of that cash flow, I assume nothing’s changing we should assume a similar pace of share repurchases in the back half?
Scott Sutton: Yes, that’s a good question. We levered free cash flow as we look forward. We continue to see the first best use of levered free cash flow is to continue to repurchase shares. And that’s what you should see us continue to do.
Vincent Andrews: Okay. Thanks very much guys.
Operator: Thank you. And the next question comes from Aleksey Yefremov with KeyBanc Capital Markets.
Aleksey Yefremov: Thanks. Good morning, everyone. VCM outage is that – is it somewhat meaningful in terms of U.S. cost of soda supply, I believe. Are you seeing any improvement in cost in supply and demand since the outage? And as a follow-up to this question, is your goal for this outage to be over by the fourth quarter? Should we assume that at this point?
Scott Sutton: Yes. Hey, Aleksey, I mean this outage is really an impact to 2Q and 3Q and we haven’t factored in any outage issue in the fourth quarter, nor do we anticipate that. Okay. And so to some extent this has impacted our upstream production. This isn’t the only way that we liberate vinyls intermediates, which in turn, liberates caustic. But I would say that’s really not a driver on U.S. caustic. What is the driver is going back to that mass of flows that’s come out of Asia and that has impacted global trade flows and tends to back things up in the U.S. Gulf Coast, that’s been more the driver of how caustic pricing has changed.
