Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. (NASDAQ:ODFL) Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Jason Seidl: Okay. Makes sense. I want to clarify also something that you guys said. You mentioned you expect an exit of capacity once the dust settles when you were talking about the terminals. Are you talking an exit of capacity from where we are now? Or are you talking a total exit of capacity from when Yellow was an operator?

Adam Satterfield: Yes. When Yellow was in operations. I mean, obviously, they had, what, 45,000, 50,000 shipments per day, and they had how many other service centers that they did. And net-net, there’s going to be a reduction in those number of service centers that were in operation. There’s still quite a few that have not settled in any way. And that’s what we had believed. We thought that they would be an exit of some percent of their capacity, if you will. But that same level of freight has got to be moved. And I continue to believe that some of it is currently in the truckload world. And so I think that there’ll likely be a second wave of freight that comes into LTL once the overall market is improving, the truckload world is getting back to normal, and if you’ve got truckload carriers they’re looking for any payload and maybe willing to handle a 5,000 to 10,000 pound LTL and try to put multiple large shipments on one trailer together and do multiple stops.

That’s the type of freight that they will shy away from once the market improves, and will spill right back into the market and become normalized LTL freight again. So I think that that’s another unique opportunity probably for 2024 that should provide a little bit of tailwind to everyone.

Jason Seidl: Yes. Well, I’m hoping it comes back in 2024 for a normalized market. We all have been waiting for it for quite some time. So fingers crossed. Appreciate the time.

Operator: Thank you. The next question is from Jack Atkins with Stephens. Please go ahead.

Jack Atkins: Okay, great. Good morning guys. Thanks for taking my question. So I guess going back to the weight per shipment and just broader demand comment you were making earlier, Adam, I mean, we saw weight per shipment tick up a bit sequentially in the fourth quarter. I know some of that was probably seasonality. But are you starting to see anything, whether it’s conversations with customers that would lead you to be a little bit more optimistic about how underlying demand may be trending as we kind of get into the spring. And I guess kind of within that, are you seeing anything different whether it’s consumer versus your industrial customer base. Just would be curious about that.

Adam Satterfield: Yes, sure. The weight per shipment in the fourth quarter was a little bit stronger than it was in the third, which is fairly typical. And we’ve seen so far in January, normally, we’d have a drop in weight per shipment of about 2% to 3%. And our weight per shipment is – right now, it’s about 1,515 pounds in January. And so it’s dropped a little bit, but better than what the normal seasonal trend would otherwise be from December. So I think that’s usually an early indicator on the economy is going to start turning. We try to read all the economic tea leaves and look at things like the inventory to sales ratio and have conversations with customers that would indicate that inventories are normalized, lower than maybe where they should be.

And so that causes us to be cautiously optimistic about what may end up coming at us this year, but we still want to be careful about not getting ahead of it after missing it in the spring of 2023. So I certainly feel like there’s some opportunity there to see some real recovery in volumes this year, and we’ll be prepared for that if it happens. I mentioned that ISM has been below 50 for 14 months. And my goodness, that’s just been such a long slow period, the slow cycle is getting as old as Methuselah. We’re ready for it to recover, but we’ve seen that impact in our business levels. Our revenue in the fourth quarter on the industrial side was a little bit slower than the company average. So that, too will be an area of opportunity once we can start seeing some, some improvement there.

Jack Atkins: Okay. That’s helpful. Thanks again.

Operator: Thank you. The next question is from Eric Morgan with Barclays. Please go ahead.

Eric Morgan: Hey, good morning. Thanks for taking my question. I wanted to ask one on service. You’ve been kind of been up against the ceiling on claims ratio and on-time performance for some time now. So I guess I’m just wondering what else you can do to improve the customer experience and stay differentiated, particularly as you’re looking to maintain your pricing strategy and keep taking share. Not sure if there are opportunities with technology or speed in certain lanes or anything else? Just trying to get a sense for where you’re focused outside of those typical metrics we track.

Adam Satterfield: Yes. I mean, obviously, the two metrics that we talk about the most are on-time performance and claims ratio. One, it’s – we got to stay focused to make sure that we keep those where they are and make sure as we hire new people as we start growing and things like that, that we don’t see those numbers change in any way. So we’re always striving for perfection because every shipment we pick up, it’s – we’re helping the world keep promises, right? That’s a shipment that is going to our customers’ customer, and we want to make sure that it’s delivered on time and without damage. But when we study the Mastio quality data that we get every year, there’s 28 attributes related to service and value that they measure.