In this article, we discussed why oil might be heading to $125 and the 10 most shorted oil stocks. If you want to skip our discussion, you can check out the 5 Most Shorted Oil Stocks.
Oil prices have been volatile because there has been so much going on around the globe. These historical occurrences, such as the more than two-year-old worldwide epidemic and the Ukraine-Russia conflict that broke out earlier this year, have caused oscillations in oil prices, which first fell into the negatives at the beginning of the pandemic before rising above $140 per barrel early this year. Since the beginning of the Ukraine-Russia crisis crude oil prices increased significantly due to supply-related concerns as tensions between Russia and Ukraine intensified.
The activities of central banks worldwide, which have raised interest rates to combat rising inflation, have increased the likelihood that the demand for the commodity will decline. Additionally, the supply from the world’s second-largest oil producer is uncertain due to ongoing sanctions against Russian oil shipments. Moreover, the oil-producing group known as OPEC+, which includes Saudi Arabia and Russia, announced in early October that it would lower its daily oil output quotas by 2 million barrels. Because the move may impact supply, strategists foresee a rise in oil prices.
The US decision to stop drawing from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve in an effort to control prices, the forthcoming Russian oil embargo by the European Union in December, and the lack of drilling that has resulted in a shortage of US shale output were just a few of the numerous causes Goldman Sachs highlighted in a recent report. All of these elements have the potential to increase the cost of petroleum.
Will oil prices stall or resume their surge in the remainder of 2022 and 2023, with so many variables tugging in different directions? Continue reading for a discussion of all the variables influencing changes in oil prices and the most recent Goldman Sachs oil price estimates.
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A slowdown in China, the second-largest economy in the world, where COVID-zero limits have reappeared and are anticipated to have an impact on industrial output, is causing many investors to express alarm. As of November 9, Goldman Sachs predicted that oil prices might climb to $125 per barrel if lockdown measures in China are relaxed. The latest headlines, according to our China economists, “merely signal the beginning of a multi-month phase of preparation for reopening,” Goldman stated.
On November 9, Brent, the benchmark for two-thirds of the world’s oil, was marginally higher at $95.37 a barrel. However, the gauge used to monitor US oil, West Texas Intermediate, was down 0.15% at $88.78 per barrel.
By opening a short position in the crude oil futures market, investors who are negative on crude oil might benefit from a decline in the price of the commodity. They can achieve this by shorting (selling) one or more contracts for crude oil futures on a futures market. If oil prices suddenly increase to $125 as predicted by Goldman Sachs, the 10 most shorted oil stocks will not only benefit for fundamental reasons (i.e. their profits will skyrocket) but also for technical reasons as short investors will rush to cover their short positions and these stocks will increase more than the other oil stocks. Some of the notable oil stocks that a large number of oil investors include in their portfolios are Schlumberger Limited (NYSE:SLB), Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE:XOM), and Shell plc (NYSE:SHEL). It is true that these are relatively safer bets in the energy industry. However, Schlumberger Limited (NYSE:SLB), Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE:XOM), and Shell plc (NYSE:SHEL) aren’t heavily shorted stocks and failed to make our list. We believe the 10 stocks we covered in this article are more likely to deliver outsized gains if oil prices hit $125 in 2023.
Our Methodology
The equities were chosen based on the percentage of the float shorted as of November 10, 2022. Analyst ratings, business fundamentals, and growth forecasts have all been covered for each stock. Additionally, an examination of 895 top funds monitored by Insider Monkey at the end of Q2 2022 allowed researchers to estimate the sentiment of the hedge fund industry.
Oil to $125: Most Shorted Oil Stocks
10. Crescent Energy Company (NYSE:CRGY)
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 8
Float Shorted: 14.54%
Stock Price as of November 10: $14.31
Crescent Energy Company (NYSE:CRGY) is an energy company that searches for, develops, and produces deposits of natural gas liquids (NGLs), natural gas, and crude oil. In the third quarter of 2022, the company drilled five gross operated sites in the Uinta and five in the Eagle Ford. In the Uinta, Crescent also activated 13 gross wells.
For the fiscal third quarter of 2022, Crescent Energy Company (NYSE:CRGY) reported revenue of $864.96 million, up 136.5% Y/Y. On October 19, Jefferies analyst Lloyd Byrne initiated coverage of Crescent Energy Company (NYSE:CRGY), rating the stock as ‘Hold’ and a price target of $15. He believed the growing Option Value of energy was due to a finite capital cycle.
As of Q2 2022, 8 hedge funds had a stake in Crescent Energy Company (NYSE:CRGY). Citadel Investment Group reduced its holdings by 14% in the second quarter of 2022. Still, it is the most prominent shareholder in the company. The hedge fund owned 212,140 Crescent Energy Company (NYSE:CRGY)’s shares, valued at around $2.65 million.
In addition to Crescent Energy Company (NYSE:CRGY), investors also have short positions in oil stocks such as Schlumberger Limited (NYSE:SLB), Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE:XOM), and Shell plc (NYSE:SHEL).
9. W&T Offshore, Inc. (NYSE:WTI)
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 18
Float Shorted: 15.81%
Stock Price as of November 10: $7.30
W&T Offshore, Inc. (NYSE:WTI) is a self reliant oil and natural gas producer based in the Gulf of Mexico that purchases, explores, and develops oil and gas properties. On October 25, Stifel analyst Derrick Whitfield initiated coverage of W&T Offshore, Inc. (NYSE:WTI), assigning the stock a ‘Buy’ rating and a $9.10 price target.
On November 8, W&T Offshore, Inc. (NYSE:WTI) published earnings for the third quarter of 2022, declaring earnings per share of $0.33, beating estimates by $0.05. In addition, the $266.48 million revenue for the period was up 99% year-over-year, exceeding estimates by $36.29 million.
As of the end of the second quarter, 18 hedge funds in Insider Monkey’s database held stakes in W&T Offshore, Inc. (NYSE:WTI), a decrease as compared to 20 funds in the preceding quarter. Fisher Asset Management held a substantial stake in W&T Offshore, Inc. (NYSE:WTI) with 871,326 shares worth $5.11 million.
8. Ring Energy, Inc. (NYSE:REI)
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 9
Float Shorted: 15.93%
Stock Price as of November 10: $3.13
Ring Energy, Inc. (NYSE:REI) is primarily involved in oil and natural gas development, production, acquisition, and exploration in Texas and New Mexico. The company’s proven reserves are equivalent to around 77.8 million barrels of oil (BOE). About 85% of its reserves are made up of oil, while the remaining 15% are made up of natural gas.
In October, interest decreased for Ring Energy, Inc. (NYSE:REI). 16,520,000 shares were shorted as of October 15, a 2.3% decrease from the prior total of 16,910,000 shares. Among the hedge funds being tracked by Insider Monkey, New York-based investment firm
Two Sigma Advisors is a leading shareholder in Ring Energy, Inc. (NYSE:REI), with 1.64 million shares worth more than $4.37 million. Out of the 895 hedge funds part of Insider Monkey’s Q2 2022 survey, nine had held a stake in Ring Energy, Inc. (NYSE:REI).
On August 1, John White of Roth Capital downgraded Ring Energy, Inc. (NYSE:REI) from ‘Buy’ to ‘Neutral’ with a $7.50 price objective, up from $4.90. After considering the acquisition of the privately held Stronghold Energy II Operating and Stronghold Energy II Royalties, the analyst changed his assessment of Ring Energy from positive to cautious. He was concerned that the acquisition would result in a substantial rise in the number of operating wells.
7. Aemetis, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMTX)
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 5
Float Shorted: 16.60%
Stock Price as of November 10: $6.35
Aemetis, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMTX) is a US-based ethanol, biodiesel, and biogas corporation headquartered in Cupertino, California. The company offers its goods to merchants, distributors, and oil refining firms, and it operates in the US and Indian markets. At the end of the second quarter of 2022, 5 hedge funds in the database of Insider Monkey held stakes worth $12.62 million in Aemetis, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMTX), down from 9 the preceding quarter worth $34.70 million.
Truist analyst Jordan Levy downgraded Aemetis, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMTX) to ‘Hold’ from ‘Buy’ on August 9, with a price objective of $12, down from $24. He claimed that Aemetis offered few immediate catalysts and that investors would need to wait several years before seeing the advantages of the expenditure plan.
Todd J. Kantor’s Encompass Capital Advisors is the biggest stakeholder of Aemetis, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMTX) as of June this year, increasing its stake in the company by 1% in Q2, holding 1.90 million shares worth almost $9.32 million.
6. Transocean Ltd. (NYSE:RIG)
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 28
Float Shorted: 17.06%
Stock Price as of November 10: $3.93
Transocean Ltd. (NYSE:RIG) and its subsidiaries provide marine contract drilling services for oil and gas wells all over the world. Transocean Ltd. (NYSE:RIG) owns or manages a fleet of 38 mobile offshore drilling rigs, including ten floaters for severe environments and 28 for ultra-deepwater drilling. On the third quarter’s conference call, Transocean announced its expected adjusted contract drilling revenues for 2023 to range between $2.9 and $3 billion.
Transocean Ltd. (NYSE:RIG) shares have returned 11.59% to investors over the course of the past 12 months as of November 10. However, on October 17, Susquehanna analyst Charles Minervino reiterated a ‘Neutral’ rating on the shares of Transocean while reducing his price objective from $4.20 to $3.30. He favoured other stocks in the coverage that were more diverse and exposed to the land.
Transocean Ltd. (NYSE:RIG)’s notable investor is Stephen Mildenhall’s Contrarius Investment Management which owns 27.70 million shares that are worth $68.42 million. As of the end of the second quarter, 28 hedge funds in Insider Monkey’s database of 895 funds held stakes in Transocean Ltd. (NYSE:RIG) compared to 30 funds in the first quarter.
Like Schlumberger Limited (NYSE:SLB), Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE:XOM), and Shell plc (NYSE:SHEL), Transocean Ltd. (NYSE:RIG) is one of the most shorted oil stocks.
Click to continue reading and see the 5 Most Shorted Oil Stocks.
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Disclosure: None. Oil to $125: 10 Most Shorted Oil Stocks is originally published on Insider Monkey.
