O-I Glass, Inc. (NYSE:OI) Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

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Arun Viswanathan: Just wanted to I guess ask about maybe medium term demand outlook that you guys have for each category. So obviously, you’ve gone through some volatility through COVID and supply chain issues, and then destocking. So when you look at the down double-digit volumes for ‘23, I guess is there a way you can really attribute a portion of that to destocking and how much would that be? And then versus primary demand, and then when you look at maybe say ‘25, what are you expecting kind of should we think about say, 1% to 2% volume growth across your different regions? Or how do we think about how you sit now in glass? And I know it’ll vary by food and beverage in different categories, so maybe that’s kind of more what we’re looking for.

Andres Lopez : Yes, I think one slide that will be a good reference to have is a slide number four, that is showing how consumer consumption has evolved over this period of time. You see that it started to improve back in the second quarter of 2023, while the stocking activity started to increase in Q1 2023. So the largest driver of the lower shipments for O-I has been really the stocking activity. And I will say, in the last part of the year, the second half it’s been up around 80% of that. Now inventories are going back to a more normal position. We see that in beer, in NAB, and foods is already pretty much there if wine and spirits will take a little longer, but that will normalize. Now, something that shows that the interesting glass is pretty high is the high level of new product development activity.

We have a pipeline at this point in time that is very large of very high probability projects is 500,000 tons. All of that will come into the stream to support demand through ‘24 and going into ‘25.

John Haudrich : Yes. One thing I would just build off of that Arun to your other question, subsequent question, what’s the trajectory going forward? Obviously in the first quarter, you can see on that same chart, we do anticipate volumes be down. It’s probably a transitional quarter for us and start to build off of that. Ultimately, we do, whether it’s ’25 — we don’t know the timeline. We do believe that the volumes returned to pre-pandemic levels. So that again, adds another mid-single digit type of growth over what we’re kind of projecting right now for this year. Most of our customers, when you hear them speak are also talking about is it at least an interim target to get volumes back to pre-pandemic levels themselves. We’ll be following obviously our customer’s path.

Arun Viswanathan : And then just as a quick follow up. So then, if you go to the midpoint of the range this year, that puts you around 30, 60 or so for ‘24 EBITDA. It looks like given maybe a potential path towards $3 an EPS that you’d continue to see kind of mid-single digit EBITDA growth on that low-single digit volume growth going forward. Is that kind of a fair assumption on the leverage you’d get given how well you’re operating or how should we think about kind of the EBITDA growth?

John Haudrich: Yes, what I would say is back to the previous comment that to get over $3 per share or the value of getting volumes back to pre-pandemic basis that’s $0.75 I had mentioned, that’s anywhere between $150 million, $200 million of additional EBIT. The timing of that is the question of the — and I believe that once you get to that you get segment profit margins that around 20% for your around 15% or so in the Americas, which again is very close to our long-term targets obviously, we got to see the volume recover and we’ll follow the macros as we recover.

Operator: We have no further questions, so I’ll turn the call back to Chris for closing comments.

Chris Manuel : That concludes our earnings call. Please note that our first quarter call is currently scheduled for May 1, 2024. And remember, make it a memorable moment by choosing safe, sustainable glass. Thank you.

Operator: Thank you everyone for joining us today. This concludes our call and you may now disconnect your line.

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