But it’s the next version, Tegra 5, which will be make-or-break for NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA). The Tegra 5 will feature the Kepler graphics core, the same core found in desktop GPUs, and will support GPU computing along with other advanced features. Set to be released in Q2 of 2014 the Tegra 5 will likely blow away the competition in regards to graphics performance.
The importance of games
I wrote about the strength of NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA)’s GPU business in an article recently, noting that PC gaming is growing even as the PC market as a whole is shrinking. New PC games often require fairly high-end graphics cards in order to play at high settings, and every year the envelope gets pushed further and further. You simply can’t play many games at acceptable settings with integrated graphics or low-end cards, forcing serious gamers to spend hundreds of dollars to upgrade to an extremely powerful high-margin GPU.
Because PC games will always push the boundaries of what is possible discrete GPUs will continue to be in demand. But right now the mobile gaming world is different. Basically any game downloaded on an Android device can be played, regardless of the underlying hardware. The Tegra line may have more powerful graphics capabilities, but up until now that has offered no real advantage over the competition.
NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) is trying to change that. The company launched its own handheld gaming device, Shield, at the end of July which features the new Tegra 4 processor. Shield is not only capable of playing Android games but also streaming PC games over a local network, allowing a gamer to play PC games on the handheld. At $300 I doubt that Shield will be a mass-market hit, but I don’t think that this was ever the point. The real selling point for a Tegra-based device is the games, and we’re just starting to see the beginning of a long-term strategy emerging.
A mobile dichotomy
The key to Tegra’s success is games. Already there are a bunch of games optimized specifically for Tegra, and over time this list should grow. Shield is important for NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) because it gets Tegra 4 devices in the hands of gamers, creating a user base which justifies creating games aimed at Tegra.
The more games which are created for Tegra the more likely manufacturers of mobile devices will choose Tegra over the competition, especially for high-end devices. Having a library of high-quality games which work best on Tegra gives NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) an edge which the company needs to make progress in mobile. The mobile gaming market will become much like the PC gaming market, where you can play games on low-end hardware but the experience is far better on NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) hardware.
NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) needs to make sure it pulls far away from the competition in terms of graphics performance, and Tegra 5 will be pivotal. Shrinking the Kepler core down to mobile took the company years of development, but I believe that the massive performance increases will give NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) an edge.
Tegra 5 will bring PS3-level graphics or better to tablets, an enormous improvement over today’s mobile graphics. NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) needs Tegra to become synonymous with mobile gaming and for enough Tegra-optimized games to be created to compel customers to buy a Tegra-based device. Tegra 4 is the first step, but Tegra 5 will be the real game changer.
