Nutrien Ltd. (NYSE:NTR) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Ken Seitz: Yes. Good morning Steve and thank you for the question. So, what I would say is, in the dynamic and the volatility since this conflict in Eastern Europe started and all of the supply side events that followed, have just created a situation where we saw the big inventory movements at the start of this conflict, where there was concerns about supply and those rushing into the market, so it was a great example of that building inventory, and all of the impacts on price that followed, which from a grower affordability point of view, while the fundamentals in agriculture were and continue to remain very strong. From an affordability perspective, I mean prices just reached to a level where affordability was compressed. And of course, we saw that buyers strike as a result.

And we saw that buyers strike in North America, we saw it in Brazil, and we saw that continue until those inventories have been drawn down. And we have been watching those inventories coming down from market-to-market. And as those inventories were coming down, of course no one is stepping in until we are able to sort of see an inflection point. And so that’s, I believe we can characterize the last 18 months along those lines. And then, where is that inflection point or what does stability look like, and I think, I would say, Steve, from a Canpotex’ perspective, peering now into 2024. And as we have talked about very strong consumption in China this year, and as we talked about Southeast Asia stepping out of the market, and really now with CPO prices, rice prices being where they are at, an expectation that they are going to be stepping back into the market with Europe having cleared high price inventories.

With India, actually I think we believe suffering yield losses because of lack of crop nutrition and stepping back into the market. We are constructive on 2024. And while, yes, Canpotex has placed volumes and committed through the end of the year, as markets have been stabilizing. And us continuing to run our fixed cost net – our fixed line network of low cost production, this is where we are. But yes, we are peering into 2024, and we are expecting even more normalization across those markets. So, yes, it’s been an interesting and volatile 18 months, but here we are constructive on 2024.

Operator: Your next question comes from the line of Michael Tupholme from TD Securities. Your line is now open.

Michael Tupholme: Thank you. Within the nitrogen business, the brownfield projects that were completed in Q3, can you talk about how much incremental annual production volume those contributed to Nutrien? What you are expecting to add in terms of volumes in 2024, from any additional projects, and perhaps the settlement of the gas contract in Trinidad? And then kind of bigger picture, any commentary you can provide on how you are thinking about year-over-year nitrogen volume growth in 2024 versus 2023, both for the overall market and specifically for Nutrien?

Ken Seitz: Yes. Thank you, Mike. And yes, we certainly expect increased volumes in 2024, getting above 11 million tons. But I will hand it over to Trevor Williams to talk about some of those details.

Trevor Williams: Alright. Thanks Mike. A couple of thoughts here. So, with the debottlenecks we did this year, we will add about – in the range of about 150,000 tons to 200,000 tons this year, mostly in UAN, a little bit on the ammonia side. But again, most of this period from the work that we did, guys earlier in the year. Going into next year, we do have a couple of small debottlenecks as well. It’s on the smaller volume of 40,000 tons, 50,000 tons that will be completed mostly on the ammonia side in the Alberta system. But if you think about where our glide path is, this year, we provided our guidance in the range. Next year, we think we will be in that kind of a little bit above the 11 million tons and as we look forward to 2025-2026, getting back to that mid cycle expectation of being 11.5 million tons to 12 million tons on a run rate going forward. Mark, maybe over to you just in terms of some of the comments in terms of the market.