Nutrien Ltd. (NYSE:NTR) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

With respect to the Portland outage, I mean as I said Vancouver, the terminal of Vancouver or Neptune – Canpotex’ Neptune terminals back at normal operating rates. And we expect Portland to be back up by the end of this year. So, that peering into 2024, we expect to see full export capacity through the Canpotex terminals. We talked about the spreads between North America and Asia, I mean of course these are granular markets versus standard grade markets. And there is a distinction there where we have seen this very strong demand in North America as we have certainly heading into the fall application season. And that is our largest granular market. And as we have said earlier, we are expecting a strong fall. With respect to the standard grade markets, we have talked about those in terms of Chinese consumption.

We talked about Southeast Asian where we expect to see there is – could we see a narrowing of those spreads, we could in 2024, but I think it’s really a distinction between grades.

Operator: Your next question comes from the line of Adam Samuelson from Goldman Sachs. Your line is now open.

Adam Samuelson: Yes. Thank you. Good morning everyone. I was hoping to maybe dig in a little more on the retail side. And I know you gave some color on crop protection kind of vertical in your prepared remarks. But can you just talk about where the channel inventories in your retail system are in North America, Australia, Brazil, kind of looking through the end of the year. Have you seen grower behavior change, if at all this year, it was same based on some of the suppliers that it’s not just the distribution chain that’s been slow to purchase products. And if you think there you are getting to a normalization point looking into next year. That would be helpful. Thank you.

Ken Seitz: Great. Thank you, Adam for the question. Yes, crop protection inventories have been drawing down in North America, although we will continue to be quite selective there, I would say opportunistic. Little different in Brazil, where we are still working through some higher cost inventory. But I will hand it over to Jeff Tarsi to walk through all of that.

Jeff Tarsi: Yes. Good morning, Adam. And as Ken just said, we came into the year, we want to work diligently to get our crop protection inventory down. I think we have done a good job year-to-date. On that we have grown our inventory down in our retail business about $200 million below, where we were this time last year. Sitting in real good spot in the U.S. market is key. And Pedro mentioned in their commentary, Brazilian markets are a bit more difficult, more product in the channel there. We think by the end of the year, in our retail business, we would have worked through the majority of that crop protection inventory in the Brazilian market. We look from supplier side of things, as Ken said, we will be very selective and opportunistic on our purchases in the fourth quarter.

And I do think he used the word normalizing. I do think that the purchases, supply-demand has normalized over the last 12 months and growers don’t – they are not as keen to purchase ahead of time right now because they are not as worried about supply and inventory from that standpoint. At the same time, we have seen our margins on crop protection normalized very nicely from the first quarter as well.

Operator: Your next question comes from the line of Steve Byrne from Bank of America. Your line is now open.

Steve Byrne: Yes. Thank you. Ken, I would like to tap into your brain from your old Canpotex days with respect to the current pricing in potash? And if you were to think back a few years and see a scenario where tonnage out of FSU could be down say 5 million tons for the coming year. You got a little bit coming out of Laos, but you clearly have a supply shock. You got favorable fundamentals in the world. Would you expect Canpotex to be sold out for the rest of this year and spot pricing in some key markets to be – what looks to be fairly modestly above levels from the 2 years ago before the supply disruption. Is that logical to you?