So we think there will still be challenges. I’ll hand it over to Jason in to maybe talk a little bit more about some of those details.
Jason Newton: Okay, thanks, Ken. Good morning, Vincent. Yes, if we look at the exports coming out of Russia and Belarus, what’s been the majority of the increase that we’ve made quarter-over-quarter for 2023 has been from Russia. And what we’ve seen there is particularly [indiscernible] has been operating at a higher operating rate than we would have expected and shipping more out through St. Petersburg. Now, if we look forward to 2024, as mentioned, we expect that volumes will continue to increase from Russia. But actually, there’s less potential growth there to get back to pre-war levels than was the case before and so incrementally, we’d expect somewhere in the range of a 1 million tons additional supply. As Ken also mention, Belarus continues to be constrained.
And actually, if we look back, at the monthly shipments that we’ve seen over that region, really since the end of Q1, it’s been relatively steady volumes. And as the Chinese contract was signed, we’ve really seen a prioritization of shipping the lowest cost logistical routes, which are through St. Petersburg and Bronka and less through the other Russian ports, which really limits the upside. And logistically, we believe in the volumes that can get support through the summer months, little bit of higher volumes moving into China as the strong demand, as mentioned that we’ve seen seasonally in China that supported prices and volumes in that market, led to a little bit higher volumes moving into China. But again, that’s a high cost to serve location that the rail distance just to get to the border is 10x what it would have been to get to Klaipeda port, and to get to the port warehouses in China to cost to serve and the high $200, on a per ton basis.
So it’s a high cost region to get those volumes out. And so as we look forward to 2024, we don’t expect significant increases in the Belarusian volumes that we’ve seen, although as a whole with the region will continue to watch and likely to continue to be variable from month to month, depending on downtime that’s taken and market conditions through the year.
Operator: The next question comes from the line of Steve Hansen from Raymond James. Your line is now open.
Steve Hansen: Yes, good morning. Well, thanks for the time. Your ability to move record volumes in the face of the logistics constraints you outlined is impressive, perhaps at the risk of being too granular. Can you maybe give us the latest update on when precisely you expect the Canpotex terminal to be back up and running and just want to understand the potential risk for not being able to serve the demand you’re speaking to? And just as a related question, how do you feel about the relative price spreads? We’re starting to see between North America and Asia. You’ve described a pretty robust demand environment there. Do you expect to see some normalization of those spreads over time? Thanks.
Ken Seitz: Yes, great. Thank you, Steve. So yes, with respect to the logistics piece, yes, our supply chain and Canpotex’s supply chain in light of some of the logistics challenges that we’ve described, but also, low river levels along the Mississippi, it’s made barge movement very difficult. We’ve seen challenges with rain in the Panama canal and, and obviously, bottlenecks there, but given the investments that Canpotex has made, both on the West Coast, but of course on the East Coast as well. And then with our vast network throughout North America, we have been able to meet the needs of our customers. And I think it just demonstrates the resilience of our network and all backed by obviously our six mines as well. So, yes, we have been able to, like I say meet the needs of our customers.
