Mark Thompson: Thanks, Ken. Good morning, Ben. So look, maybe we will just parse out your question to a few different pieces. I think just to reiterate, as Ken said, we have been encouraged by the stability that we have seen in prices and the attractive affordability levels have really accelerated the return of demand to the potash market, which has certainly been a positive in 2023. I think just a bridge to 2024. We’ve got to talk about 2023 a little bit. And I think the story on 2023 versus where we were in August on our Q2 call is really about three markets. So first of all, in North America, we’ve seen continued very strong engagement in North America, our total sale program was very, very strong. We’ve seen continued interest from retail customers and growers for product going to ground and things are moving well in Q4.
And obviously that whole backdrop has contributed to our Midwest reference price, moving from sale value at $370 to two increases since then, and most recent reference price in the Midwest achieved at that $420 per short ton level. So North America certainly has been a positive story in 2023. The two markets internationally that have really contributed to that demand growth in 2023 versus prior expectations are Brazil and China. And overall in Brazil, we’ve continued to see very good engagement on fertilizers. And despite the fact that growers are still a little more hand to mouth in that market, we are seeing consumption levels back at 2021 levels, which is a positive indicator. And trade in recent weeks has been relatively thin there, which is normal.
But if we look at inventory levels in Brazil, they are similar to a year ago, but significant imports are required over the next 2 months to meet demand for safrinha. And if that doesn’t materialize, inventories will be very, very tight. So we expect a positive transition in the demand side in Brazil heading into ‘24. Coming to your question on China, because that’s also part of the 2023 story. Really in China I think 2023s big increase in shipments is primarily due to two factors. The first is that apparent consumption in China just generally is very strong. Across all the nutrients, we’re looking at consumption levels that appear to be demonstrating growth of about 5%. Across the board and domestic production in China is down in our expectation somewhere between 750,000 and a 1 million tons this year.
So that’s all led to inventories, actually in September, that had been drawn down to levels just below 2.5 million tons. Now, we do expect that by the time we get to the end of the year, some of the shipments will have gone to rebuilding inventories to some extent. But as we looked at 2024, as you would see, in our materials, we do project a bit of a step back in China next year. So other markets are really driving that growth in 2024, those markets that we’ve called out, then in 2024, really are Southeast Asia, India, Europe and continued growth in Latin America. So to your question on Southeast Asia, in 2023, shipments were down in Southeast Asia quite substantially. And we’ve seen conditions improve, inventories have been drawn down in Southeast Asia we’ve seen from Canpotex’s indications of good interest returning in Q4, we’ve seen interest already in Q1.
Palm oil prices and rice prices and fundamentals in particular are very strong there. So we do expect a rebound in shipments. Of course, to your point. Watching dryness in the region is a risk factor we will have to watch but given the depressed level of consumption in that market this year, we do expect a meaningful rebound there next year. You also asked about India in your question, we expect growth in India next year. While Indian inventories are improving as of recent months, they are still relatively tight. And even with the subsidy changes, I’d say those were about as expected for us importers are still making just over a 10% margin in that market. And shipments in 2023 were depressed by historical standards. So we do expect good things in 2024 in India, and Latin America, obviously this year has been a positive surprise.
