Mark Thompson: Yes. Thanks, Jeff. Jacob, so maybe I’ll just come back to the top on your questions and kind of some of the messaging that Ken provided. I think first, if you look at the global picture, I think the most important factor here is that not a lot has changed in our view over the last 3 months. So we continue to see a very balanced market from a global perspective in 2024. As we’ve said, our view of global shipments in 2024 remains unchanged at 68 million to 71 million tonnes. On the demand side of the equation, we continue to expect about 2 million tonnes of growth over last year. And we see that coming from the same markets that we’ve been talking about. The biggest contributor to that being Southeast Asia and Asian markets outside China and other shipment gains coming in Europe, India and Latin American markets outside of Brazil.
On the supply side, not a lot has changed there either from our initial view coming into the year. We expect that 2 million tonnes of growth to be met from the Canada and Laos, and we’d see that sort of being split about 50% coming from the FSU and we’ve seen a little bit of variability month-to-month in the supply out of the FSU, but I’d say largely consistent with our expectations. And then that other 50% being balanced between Canada and Laos. So I think to reiterate, overall, with lower price volatility, attractive price levels relative to nitrogen and phosphate and then just a more normalized supply/demand balance and environment. We’ve seen the year start strong from a shipment perspective. Yes. I think back on your question about starting Q1 strong.
I think as we said in our commentary and have talked about today already. We see that first half, second half balance being more evenly split this year. So we had a historically strong fill program in North America in Q1, one of our stronger in the last 10 years. And I’d say what we’re seeing seasonally, to pick up on Jeff’s comments, in Q2 is strong demand at the retail level and the grower level. And those tonnes are really going to ground in progress with planting activity, which is about an average pace. So we’re watching weather closely, and if weather cooperates, we expect it will be a fairly normal second quarter. So overall, we’re encouraged by what we see.
Operator: Your next question is from the line of Ben Isaacson from Scotiabank.
Benjamin Isaacson: Congrats on the quarter. Ken, in your press release you called out twice actually about enhancing the quality of our earnings and free cash flow. Can you talk a little bit about what that means, how do you define quality? What is the strategy to achieve this? And is the sale of these noncore assets in LatAm ex Brazil, is that part of that?
Kenneth Seitz: Yes, absolutely, Ben. And we do intend to talk more about exactly that at Investor Day. But when we say quality of earnings, it is something that we talk about as being sustainable. And that’s, hence, the focus on reliability in nitrogen. You’ll have seen that we took, I would say, somewhat painful outage at our Borger facility last year. And because of some reliability concerns, that’s paying dividends for us today. We have changed our operating model at Trinidad so that we can optimize to utilization when it’s available. That’s paying dividends for us. And you see that reflected in our operating rates in the first quarter this year, and we’re going to seek to focus on that and continue and make that a ratable thing for shareholders.
You see us making investments in mine automation in potash and really, that is obviously a safety benefit, but there’s a productivity benefit as we continue to expand our underground footprint that we’re focusing on that cash cost of production. You saw in the first quarter at $56. That’s quite a competitive outcome. And we’re going to continue to focus on that. And the example that you provide on Argentina is a great one, Jacob. Where it’s a stable business, but with the currency controls and the macroeconomic environment there and for something that represents 3% of our retail sales, 2% of retail EBITDA, it really is focusing on quality [indiscernible] , but our ability to convert to cash as well because we know the ultimate importance of cash.
So focusing across the network, maintaining conviction around capital allocated priorities, and we can talk about the things that we’re doing in as well in terms of proprietary products, network optimization and digital investments, those investments are returning high-quality earnings proprietary products with its $1 billion in gross margin contribution in 2023 and a 15% 5-year CAGR on our and , these are very high-quality earnings that we can also convert to cash. So I just said a number of things there, Ben, but we’ll talk more about that at Investor Day, but really, those are the types of things that we’re just absolutely focused on to have ratable high-quality earnings that we can convert to cash because, of course, we know the importance of cash.
Operator: Your next question is from the line of Adam Samuelson from Goldman Sachs.
Adam Samuelson: I was hoping to maybe dig a little bit more on the potash side and just the cadence and geographic mix of shipments over the balance of the year. Just given your own sales in the first quarter, there’s effectively no growth left. And I appreciate that you had a very strong North America fill program in 1Q and 3Q last year is probably not going — going to be tough to repeat in North America, but also Canpotex’s mix of sales to other Asia, which should be the predominant source of global demand growth this year was lower year-on-year. So just help us think about how we should think about that progression through the year kind of the likelihood that we end the U.S. season or the North America season with inventories empty that could draw in another strong fill program in the second half or risk that, that maybe carries over weaker wholesale shipments domestically kind of over the balance of the year?
Kenneth Seitz: Yes. Thanks for the question, Adam. So yes, we are maintaining our guidance with the midpoint of 13.4 million tonnes. And that’s because when will look out into the balance of the year, yes, there’s a risk of strike and those sorts of things. But as we go market by market, and as we see what’s happening on the ground, we have maintained that guidance range. And by the way, that does include some strike risk as well. But I’ll hand it over to Mark here to maybe talk through to what we’re seeing region by region.
