Nucor Corporation (NYSE:NUE) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Martin Englert: Understood. Could we briefly discuss seasonality in 4Q within the steel business? Recent years, some of the sequential declines have been rather steep in excess of 10% but before that, it was kind of around mid single digits. And I think you had commented in prepared remarks earlier in the discussion of about anticipating maybe a small sequential decline in volumes in the fourth quarter here. Any other color to add there or thoughts?

Steve Laxton: Yes. Martin, I think from where we sit today with what Brad highlighted, some comments about downstream products, order book and backlog and where we sit. I think those — the trend being closer to those historic averages rather than some of the volatility you saw over the last year or two is probably an accurate statement.

Martin Englert: Okay. If I could one last one, again, that’s going to come back to some of the prepared remarks on expecting declines on pricing across the three business segments into 4Q here, but specifically narrowing in on steel products here. It was a fairly small decline of about $47 per ton sequentially. Thinking about the commentary on the backlog extending into next year and still good pricing off from peak. But any color regarding the cadence of steel products pricing 4Q versus 3Q, whether it would be something on [indiscernible] $50 or something differing in magnitude?

Leon Topalian: Hey, Martin, it’s Leon. I don’t know if we are going to provide you any more color on pricing outlook. Again, I think what we’ve tried to indicate is again, we see some of that softness as we head into the last quarter of this year. But again, context, particularly in our steel products that has generated incredible returns, coupled with Brad’s comments earlier, which was to say there has been a fundamental shift in that overall market where we’ve seen a — again, a different reset in the pricing levels that we believe are more sustainable. So again, while we see some softness heading into the last quarter, again, the resiliency of that sector has been remarkable, sending all the way back to the pandemic. So again, we see that as one of our strongest performers as we move into 2024 and that to continue to be the case.

Martin Englert: Okay. I appreciate all the color and nice job navigating the down market. Thank you.

Leon Topalian: Thanks, Martin.

Operator: The next question is from Katja Jancic of BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Katja Jancic: Hi. Thank you for taking my questions. Quickly on the Brandenburg Plate Mill, can you let us know what the production level was this quarter? And how we should think about the ramp-up at the mill in 4Q and also into next year?

Al Behr: Yes, Katja, this is Al Behr. Happy to — thank you for the questions. Just some comments around the ramp up in Brandenburg. First, there’s a lot of things that are going quite well with the capabilities of the mill that was the strategy for us to build Brandenburg, was to broaden our capability in plate. And we’ve hit several milestones in the quarter. We ran the caster to its full set of capabilities. We’ve cross rolled plate almost to the full width of the mill, which is 168 inches. We’ve commissioned our continuous heat treat lines. So the team continues to work really, really hard on hitting some key milestones. You asked about volume. We guided to about 300,000 tons in the second half. We are going to be under that.

We’ll probably maybe closer to 160,000 tons. Part of that is just due to the complexity of the mill itself and there’s equipment complexity, there’s software complexity and automation. Part of that is also a strategic decision for us to make sure we’re using Brandenburg to its strategic intent, which was to go after parts of the market where we couldn’t compete. So rather than hitting volume targets and impacting the returns at our other two plate mills because we operate a portfolio of mills and Brandenburg is an important part of it, but there’s two other legs to that stool. We want to be really strategic on how we bring those tons forward. So that’s the best number I could give you for the second half is about 160,000 tons total. And then we’re headed in the next year after that.

Katja Jancic: And for next year, is there any color you can provide about the ramp up, or how much it could produce?

Al Behr: Yes. I would say we’d be closer to what we would have intended for the run rate through this half. I think we’ll be up north of 0.5 million tons for the year and probably more than that, but we’ll continue to stay focused on driving incremental return through the group and being as strategic as we can about using those tons to our best strategic advantage.

Katja Jancic: Perfect. Again just quickly on the tax rate. It seems like the tax rate this quarter was a little lower. How should we think about it in 4Q? Is there anything we should be thinking about there?

Steve Laxton: Yes. I think the guidance on the tax rate is that will move around a little bit with how you believe the year is going to end up. So you pay your taxes quarterly, but it’s based on annual estimate. So I’ll let you use your own modeling to estimate what you think the fourth quarter is.

Katja Jancic: Okay. Thank you very much.

Operator: The next question is from Phil Gibbs with KeyBanc Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Phil Gibbs: Hey, good morning. Steve, I just wanted to qualify the comment you made about the fourth quarter decline being more than that of the third quarter decline on a sequential basis. Were you talking about absolute EBITDA dollars? Or were you talking about more of a percentage?

Steve Laxton: Yes. Hey, Phil. Thanks for the question. And on the fourth quarter outlook, that’s really more about the total EBITDA outlook. But I think if you’re looking at the change that happened in the third quarter, that’s a very good indication for the direction that we are seeing headed into the fourth quarter if you want some framework. So again, I’ll let you decide how you want to more fit into your own estimates.

Phil Gibbs: And then on Gallatin, did you provide — I may have missed it, but did you provide any color on the state of that project?

Leon Topalian: Yes, Phil, I’ll ask Rex Query to give you an update, part of his group, the Sheet group.

Rex Query: Yes, Phil, thanks for the question. Currently as we mentioned in our second quarter call, we are full run rate capable. With that said, during the third quarter, we continue to work on some of our automation issues, which have impacted our consistency. But really from a production standpoint, as we look at our entire group, we’ve gauged on what demand is in the marketplace. And that’s really what we focused on. But again, just to reiterate, I mean, in Gallatin we are on full run rate capacity at this point.

Phil Gibbs: Thank you. And then lastly for me is on the new announcement on the — in the Northwest with the rebar micro mill. Guess really what drove that decision? And I guess what are the expectations for when that could be contributing?

Leon Topalian: Yes, Phil, again, it was an announcement that we are going to work through, and John Hollatz and his teams are going to work through and look at the diligence and all the variables that go into bring that project to fruition. But the drivers of that, I think John touched on really well. That mill has been around since 1905 and as that city has grown up expanding that footprint becomes a significant challenge. So how do we do that? How do we continue to serve our customers? How do we continue to serve those markets and gaining new customers. And again, we see some opportunities out there that are compelling that we think the strategies that the team is engaged on are going to potentially effectuate a great long-term outcome.