Novo Nordisk A/S (NYSE:NVO) Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript January 31, 2024
Novo Nordisk A/S beats earnings expectations. Reported EPS is $4.91, expectations were $0.66. NVO isn’t one of the 30 most popular stocks among hedge funds at the end of the third quarter (see the details here).
Operator: Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Q4 2023 Novo Nordisk Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speakers’ presentation, there will be a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions]. Please be advised that today’s conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Daniel Bohsen, CVP and Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Daniel Bohsen: Welcome to this Novo Nordisk Earnings Call for the full-year of 2023 and outlook for 2024. My name is Daniel Muusmann Bohsen, and I’m the Head of Investor Relations at Novo Nordisk. With me today, I have CEO of Novo Nordisk, Lars Fruergaard Jørgensen; Executive Vice President and Head of Commercial Strategy and Corporate Affairs, Camilla Sylvest; Executive Vice President and Head of North America Operations, Doug Langa; Executive Vice President and Head of Development, Martin Holst Lange; and finally, Chief Financial Officer, Karsten Munk Knudsen. All speakers will be available for the Q&A session. Today’s announcement and the slides for this call are available on our website, novonordisk.com. Please note that the call is being webcast live and the recording will be made available on our website as well.
The call is scheduled to last one hour. Please turn to the next slide. The presentation is structured as outlined on Slide 2. Please note that all sales and operating profit growth statements will be at constant exchange rates unless otherwise specified. Please turn to Slide 3. We need to advise you that this call will contain forward-looking statements. These are subject to risks and uncertainty that could cause actual results to differ materially from expectations. For further information on the risk factors, please see the company announcement for the full-year 2023 and the slides prepared for this presentation. With this, over to you, Lars on update on our strategic aspirations.
Lars Fruergaard Jorgensen: Thank you, Daniel. Please turn to the next slide. In 2023, we delivered double-digit sales and operating profit growth and we continue to make progress on our strategic aspirations. I’ll walk you through the performance highlights before handing over to my colleagues. We continue making progress on purpose and sustainability. On carbon emissions, our carbon emissions decreased by 34% compared to pre-pandemic levels in 2019. And in 2023, we reached more than 40 million patients without diabetes and obesity treatments. To uphold our commitment to being a sustainable employer, we expanded the number of women in senior leadership positions to 41% compared to 39% at the end of ’22. In the past year, we have developed and expanded our pipeline across all our therapy areas.
In diabetes and obesity, we have seen several exciting trial readouts and we have advanced novel assets into Phase 3. We have also expanded our footprint in cardiovascular disease and strengthened our late stage pipeline in rare blood disorders. Martin will come back to this and our overall R&D milestones later. In 2023, we have achieved two major milestones within commercial execution. We have reached sales aspiration of more than DKK 25 billion and our aspiration for diabetes, which was to achieve one-third of the global diabetes value market. Going forward, we continue to aim in treating more patients with our innovative treatments. Lastly, we are very pleased with the strong sales growth of 36% and operating profit growth of 44% in 2023, both measured at constant exchange rates.
Now, I would like to hand over the word to Camilla, who will give us the latest update on our commercial execution.
Camilla Sylvest: Thank you, Lars, and please turn to the next slide. In 2023, our total sales increased by 36%. The sales growth was driven by both operating units with North America operations growing 54% and international operations growing 15%. Our GLP-1 sales in diabetes increased 52%, driven by North America growing 52% and international operations growing 53%. Insulin sales decreased by 6%, driven by declining sales in the U.S. and Region China. Obesity care sales grew 154%. In International operations, sales grew 47%, driven by both Saxenda and Wegovy. Sales of Saxenda increased by 14% and sales of Wegovy reached around DKK 2 billion. Going forward, we continue to roll out Wegovy in a sustainable manner by volume cap launches to balance supply and demand.
In North America operations, obesity care sales grew 212%. Total rare disease sales decreased by 15%, which was driven by a 24% decrease in International operations and by 1% decrease in North America operations, following a reduction in supply of Norditropin. Please turn to the next slide. With 29% sales growth in Diabetes Care, we are growing faster than the total diabetes market. As a result, our global diabetes value market share increased to 33.8%, which is above our strategic aspiration of reaching one-third of the global diabetes value market. This increase reflects market share gains in both North America operations and International operations. Please turn to the next slide. In International operations, total diabetes care sales increased by 20% in 2023, which was primarily driven by GLP-1 sales growing 53%.
Novo Nordisk is the market leader in international operations with the GLP-1 value market share over 70%. Ozempic continues its GLP-1 market leadership with 47.5% market share. Rybelsus has just shy of 14% value market share driven by solid uptick across geographies. And with that, I will hand over the word to Doug.
Doug Langa: Thank you, Camilla. Please turn to the next slide. In the U.S, sales growth of our GLP-1 diabetes treatments are driven by 50% expansion of the market in 2023 versus 2022. In the fourth quarter of 2023, the prescription volume growth of the GLP-1 class was more than 30% compared to the fourth quarter of 2022. Measured on total prescriptions, Novo Nordisk continues to be the market leader with around 54% market share. Please go to the next slide. Obesity care sales grew by 154%, driven by both operating units. The volume growth of the global branded obesity market more than doubled with a volume growth of 116%. In international operations, obesity care sales are driven by a strong Saxenda performance and the Wegovy launches in seven international operation countries.
In the U.S, sales of Wegovy grew by 393%, reflecting the commercial relaunch in January of 2023. To safeguard continuity of care, we reduced the release of lower dose strengths back in May of 2023, which continued throughout the remainder of last year. I’m very pleased to state that we are now enabling more new U.S. patients to initiate treatment by more than doubling the amount of the lower dose strengths of Wegovy compared to the previous months. We will gradually be increasing the overall supply throughout the remainder of 2024. Please go to the next slide. Our rare disease sales decreased by 15%. The sales decrease was driven by 1% sales decline in North America operations and 24% sales decline in international operations. Sales of rare blood disorders increased by 3% driven by the launch products in hemophilia A and B and partially countered by NovoSeven.
Sales of our rare endocrine disorder products decreased by 47%, reflecting a reduction in manufacturing output. Now Martin, over to you for an update on R&D.
Martin Holst Lange: Thank you, Doug. Please turn to the next slide. First, I’m very pleased to share the exciting headline results from the combined three trials with once weekly IcoSema. COMBINE 3 was a 52 week open label treat to target Phase 3 trial comparing once weekly IcoSema with once daily insulin glargine U100 together with up to four daily injections of insulin aspart. This is also called basal bolus insulin treatment. The objective of COMBINE 3 was to assess the efficacy and safety of once weekly IcoSema in people with Type 2 diabetes poorly controlled on daily basal insulin. The trial achieved its primary endpoint of demonstrating non-inferiority in reducing A1c at week 52 with once weekly IcoSema compared to insulin glargine U100 together with insulin aspart.
From an overall A1c baseline of 8.3% once weekly IcoSema achieved an estimated reduction in HbA1c of 1.47 percentage points compared with 1.40 percentage points for insulin glargine together with insulin aspart. People in the trial had a baseline body weight of 85.8 kilograms. Treatment with IcoSema achieved a superior reduction in body weight with a weight loss of 3.6 kilograms with IcoSema compared with a 3.2 kilogram weight gain with the insulin basal bolus treatment. The estimated treatment difference was 6.7 kilograms. IcoSema also showed a priority over insulin glargine U100 together with insulin aspart in terms of severe or clinically significant hypoglycemic events with only 0.26 events per patient year of exposure compared to 2.18 events per patient year of exposure in the basal bolus treatment arm.
Overall, IcoSema appear to have a safe and well tolerated profile. These Phase 3 results for once weekly IcoSema are very promising. For people with poorly controlled Type 2 diabetes and basal insulin, IcoSema has the potential to streamline insulin intensification by addressing the main patient barriers. IcoSema sets a new standard for once weekly treatment by reducing the annual injections from around 1,450 to 52 injections. This substantial reduction in patient burden is provided together with a strong glycemic control, proper weight management and importantly, a factor of 10x lower rates of hypoglycemia as compared to the current gold standard of insulin basal bolus treatment. Please turn to the next slide. Turning to the upcoming R&D milestones.
There are many exciting trial results in 2024. However, before I get to that, I would like to highlight a few of the milestones from fourth quarter of 2023. Within obesity, we have successfully completed two Phase 3 studies with Semaglutide 2.4 milligram addressing obesity related comorbidities as well as the Phase 1 trial for oral amycretin. First, the [indiscernible] trial was a Phase 3 knee osteoarthritis trial that investigated the effects of Semaglutide 2.4 milligrams once weekly on the co-primary endpoints of body weight and the Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis Index, abbreviated WOMAC. This is a self-administered measurement used in assessing pain and functionality. In the trial, 407 people with obesity and mild to moderate knee osteoarthritis were enrolled.
The study achieved its co primary endpoint by demonstrating a superior reduction in both the WOMAC pain score as well as in body weight with Semaglutide 2.4 milligram compared to placebo. The estimated reduction in knee WOMAC pain score from baseline to week 68 was 41.7 with Semaglutide 2.4 milligram and 27.5 with placebo. The estimated treatment difference was 14.1, which was not only statistically significant but also considered clinically very relevant. The trial results will serve as a foundation for potential trials with future obesity. In addition, we have successfully completed the STEP HFpEF diabetes trial. This STEP HFpEF diabetes trial investigated the impact of Semaglutide treatment on difficulty and symptoms in patients with obesity, Type 2 diabetes and established heart failure.
In total, 660 people were enrolled in the study. The coprimary endpoints were the average change from baseline in the Kansas City Cardiomyopathy clinical summary score questionnaire and body weight. In the trial, Semaglutide showed a 13.7 points improvement versus 6.4 in the placebo arm at 52 weeks. The mean change was 7.3 points in favor of Semaglutide, which is considered clinically very relevant and very solid results with chronic heart failure. A superior reduction in body weight was also observed for Semaglutide 2.4 milligrams versus placebo. We have submitted the results from the STEP HFpEF obesity trial as well as the Type 2 diabetes trial for regulatory review in U.S. and Europe during the course of January of ’24. This marks another milestone in our ongoing efforts to address the unmet medical needs in patients with overweight obesity and established cardiovascular disease.
The last highlight for the fourth quarter of 2023 is the successful completion of oral amycretin. This trial appear to have a safe and well tolerated profile for amycretin. We have decided in September of 2023 to also initiate a Phase 1 trial with once-weekly subcutaneous amycretin. And further, we expect to advance amycretin into further clinical development. Moving forward to 2024 within diabetes care, we expect the decision on approval of insulin icodec in Europe, Japan, China as well as the U.S. during the second half of 2024. We also anticipating the exciting results of combined 1 and combined 2 from the IcoSema development program during the initial half of 2024. Of note, we are expecting the Phase 1 results of the once weekly GLP-1/GIP in the first half of ’24.
And we have further initiated a Phase 1 trial with once monthly GLP-1/GIP during the course of January of ’24. We continue to build evidence for the semaglutide molecule within diabetes as well. For subcutaneous semaglutide 1.0 milligram, we anticipate the readout of flow for people with Type 2 diabetes and chronic kidney disease in the first half of this year. This will be followed by the functional outcomes trial STRIDE for people with Type 2 diabetes and peripheral arterial disease in the second half of 2024. As far as semaglutide, the cardiovascular outcome study shown is expected to be completed in the second half of 2024, this indicating semaglutide in people with diabetes and cardiovascular disease. In the obesity area, we expect an FDA decision on the approval of The SELECT data submission in the first half of ’24.
Furthermore, we look forward to the first Phase 3 readout for CagriSema towards the turn of the year. And as a last highlight, we are very excited about the upcoming readout of Mim8 Phase 3 in the first half of 2028. Mim8 is a novel next generation Factor VIII mimetic antibody with potential for improved patient outcomes and reduced burden of treatment in people with hemophilia A. With that, over to you, Karsten.
Karsten Munk Knudsen: Thank you, Martin. Please turn to the next slide. In 2023, our sales grew by 31% in Danish kroner and 36% at constant exchange rates, driven by both operating units. The gross margin increased to 84.6% compared to 83.9% in 2022, driven by a positive product mix following increased sales of injectable GLP-1 based treatments. Costs related to ongoing capacity expansions and negative currency impact and lower realized prices mainly in the U.S. and region China, partially offset these effects. Sales and distribution costs increased by 23% in Danish kroner and by 26% at constant exchange rates. The increase is driven by both operating units. In North America, operations cost increase is driven by the relaunch of Wegovy and promotional activities for Ozempic, while in International Operations cost increase is driven by promotional activities for Rybelsus, as well as Obesity care market development activities.
Furthermore, the increase in sales and distribution costs are impacted by adjustments to legal provisions. Research and development costs increased by 35% measured in Danish kroner and 37% at constant exchange rates. The increase reflects our strategic objective to expand the pipeline across therapy areas. Specifically, we continue to increase late stage clinical trial and early research activities. The acquisition of Forma Therapeutics in 2022 and Inversago Pharma also increased R&D spending. Administration costs increased by 9% measured in Danish kroner and by 11% at constant exchange rates. Operating profit increased by 37%, measured in Danish kroner and by 44% at constant exchange rates, reflecting sales growth. Net financial items showed a gain of DKK 2.1 billion compared to a net loss of around DKK 5.7 billion last year.
The effective tax rate is 20.1% in 2023 compared to 19.6% in 2022. Consequently, net profit increased by 51%, and diluted earnings per share increased by 52% to DKK 18.62. Free cash flow realized in 2023 was DKK 68.3 billion compared with DKK 57.4 billion in 2022. This is in line with the strategic aspiration to deliver attractive capital allocation to shareholders. The cash conversion in 2023 was positively impacted by timing of payment of rebates in the U.S. and provisions related to the revised 340B distribution policy also in the U.S. Capital expenditure for property, plant and equipment was DKK 25.8 billion compared with DKK 12.1 billion in 2022. This primarily reflects investments in additional capacity for active pharmaceutical ingredient production and fill-finish capacity for both current and future injectable and all products.
Please go to the next slide. In 2024, we expect to increase our capital expenditure to around DKK 45 billion. The significant step up compared to 2023 reflects the expansion of our supply chain. This includes the previously communicated expansions of manufacturing facilities in Kalundborg and Hillerød located in Denmark and Chartres based in France. The increase in capital expenditure in 2024 mainly relates to investments in additional capacity for active pharmaceutical ingredient production and finished capacity for both current and future injectable and oral products across our strategic therapy areas. In the coming years, the capital expenditure to sales ratio is still expected to be low double digits. Next slide, please. In line with our strategic aspiration to deliver attractive capital allocation to shareholders, we have returned more than DKK 61.7 billion to shareholders via share buybacks and dividends during 2023.
At the Annual General Meeting on March 21st of 2024, the Board of Directors will propose a final dividend of DKK 6.40 for a total 2023 dividend of DKK 9.40 including the interim dividend paid in August of 2023. This is over a 50% increase compared to 2022, making it the 28th consecutive year with increasing dividend per share. In addition to the dividends, the DKK 30 billion share buyback for the past 12 months has been concluded. For 2024, the Board of Directors has approved a new share repurchase program of up to DKK 20 billion to be executed during the coming 12 months. Next slide, please. We continue the growth momentum in 2024 and expect the sales growth to be between 18% and 26% at constant exchange rates. This is based on several assumptions as described in the company announcements.
The guidance reflects expectation for sales growth in both North America Operations and International Operations. The sales growth is expected to be mainly driven by volume growth of GLP-1 based treatment for obesity and diabetes care. With the expectations of continued volume growth and capacity limitations, the outlook also reflects expected continued periodic supply constraints and related drug shortage notifications across a number of products and geographies. We expect that operating profit will grow between 21% and 29% at constant exchange rates. This primarily reflect the sales growth outlook and continued investments in future and current growth drivers within research development and commercial. Our reported sales are expected to be 1 percentage point lower at constant exchange rates, and operating profit is expected to be 2 percentage points lower than at constant exchange rates.
For 2024, we expect net financial items to amount to a gain of around DKK 1.3 billion, this mainly reflects gains associated with foreign exchange hedging contracts as well as interest rate gains from cash and marketable securities. The free cash flow is expected to be between DKK 64 billion and DKK 74 billion reflecting the sales growth, a favorable impact from rebates in the U.S. countered by investments in capital expenditure. That covers the outlook for 2024. Now back to you, Lars.
Lars Fruergaard Jorgensen: Thank you, Karsten. Please turn to the final slide. We are very pleased with the strong performance in 2023, which reflects that more than 40 million people are now benefiting from our innovative diabetes and obesity treatments. We continue to make progress on our strategic aspirations. In 2024, our focus would be on the continued significant expansion of our production capacity reaching more patients and are progressing the expanding pipeline. With that, I would like to hand the word back to Daniel.
Daniel Bohsen: Thank you, Lars. Next slide please. With that, we are now ready for the Q&A. We are kindly asked all participants to limit her or himself to one or maximum two questions. This include sub questions. Operator we are now ready to take the first question.
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Q&A Session
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Operator: Thank you. [Operator Instructions]. We will now take the first question. One moment please. And the first question comes from the line of Mike Nedelcovych from TD Cowen. Please go ahead.
Michael Nedelcovych: Thank you for the questions. I have two for Martin. The first is on the GLP-1/GIP dual agonist. As it relates to the clinical profile of a once-monthly injection, it seems to me that navigating GI toxicity during the titration phase with a drug that’s on board for an entire month could be tricky. Do you think that’s a valid concern? And if so, might it undercut to some extent the convenience advantage? And then my second question is on oral amycretin. Can you provide any insight into the efficacy you saw in the Phase 1 trial? A reasonable ambition would be for weight loss that approaches that delivered by CagriSema, but via the oral route. How close did amycretin get to that profile?
Daniel Bohsen: Thank you, Mike. And Martin, over to you.
Martin Holst Lange: Yes. So thank you. Thank you for those questions. First of all, on the once monthly GLP-1/GIP. Honestly speaking, we asked ourselves the same questions when we moved from once-daily to once-weekly. And this is all in the focus of titration. So proper titration will mitigate most GI and tolerability to side effects, and therefore, we’re quite confident that we can manage a once-monthly in that setting. We actually didn’t see an increase moving from once-daily to once-weekly, and we don’t expect to see that moving from once-weekly to once-monthly. On the amycretin, we’re not disclosing Phase 1 data, but you should obviously read into the fact that we are stating that we are progressing further development, which also means that we believe amycretin to be properly differentiated to whatever else is out there.
Daniel Bohsen: Thank you, Mike, for the question. Thanks for being up early. Next question, please.
Operator: Thank you. We will now take the next question. One moment please. And the next question comes from the line of Peter Verdult from Citigroup. Please go ahead.
Peter Verdult: Yes. Thanks, Pete Verdult from Citi. Two questions please. For Lars or Karsten, you’ve mentioned many times Novo or management’s number one priority is scaling supply. I just want to try and marry that with the comments you provided for ’24 and guidance. I mean, if I just annualize your exit run rate Q4 2023, you pretty much are at the bottom end of 2024 guidance. Now I realize there’s FX and there’s rebating to consider, but I didn’t want to push my luck and try and get a handle. How significantly capacity will increase in 2024, especially in light of SELECT coming on the label this year and likely increasing demand further? And then secondly for Karsten, just a quick update on the revenue recognition from 340B policy.
I know you currently own a partial revenue recognize that’s what’s baked into guidance, but I thought there was a chance that that could change in 2023 given that you had prevailed in litigation with HHS. So is could there be any change in your stance on 340B in ’24? And am I right that, were you to fully revenue recognize that could actually have quite a meaningful uplift to Novo earnings of around 5%? Thank you.
Daniel Bohsen: Thank you, Pete. Karsten, two questions for you.
Karsten Munk Knudsen: Yes. So first, as to our 2024 guidance, then the important point is that we are continuing the growth trajectory we showed already in 2023. And just to remind you 36% sales growth adding to the tune of 5 million people on Novo Nordisk products over 12 month period. So we do believe that, that’s significant scaling. And in round numbers, we’re talking about that magnitude when you look at our scaling into next year. So it’s a similar type scaling we’ll be doing in 2024. I don’t like the logic between multiplying Q4 by four, because we’re in a chronic disease business, so all the ups and downs of currencies and inventories in one quarter makes it dangerous to annualize just based on three months. So but again, the growth platforms remain the same.
It’s Rybelsus, it’s Ozempic, and it’s Wegovy. And we are scaling all of those three platforms, which is what gives us the guidance that we provided today. And then as to 340B, you’re right. As we state, we’re only partially recognizing 340B revenue, and that’s linked to the accounting standards of in order to recognize revenue, it has to be what the accountants or the auditors call highly probable, so that’s the backdrop behind that. And yes, we prevailed in our case back in January of ’23. There are still two cases outstanding in different jurisdictions around the same question. So that would be key informative points for us to decide on how to proceed forward vis-à-vis our accounting recognition in the space.
Daniel Bohsen: Thank you, Pete. Thank you, Karsten. And next question, please.
Operator: Thank you. We will now take the next question. One moment please. And the next question comes from the line of Louise Chen from Cantor. Please go ahead.
Louise Chen: Hi, thank you for taking my questions. So my first question is, how do you think about the launch of Lilly Zepbound in your guidance for 2024. And then second question is, when do you expect to report data from your NASH or MASH studies, such as your SM study or your FGF21? Thank you.
Daniel Bohsen: Thank you, Louise. Karsten, I will give the first to you with guidance, and then Martin, later you on MASH.
