In this article, we will take a look at billionaire Andreas Halvorsen’s top 10 stock picks.
Ole Andreas Halvorsen, the founder and CEO of Viking Global, has built one of the most respected names in the hedge fund world. Born in Norway, Halvorson graduated with an undergraduate degree in economics from Williams College in 1986. He then later earned a postgraduate business degree from Stanford University. Having received his first taste of finance while working for Morgan Stanley, he’s part of an elite group of investors known as the “Tiger Cubs,” former protégés of hedge fund legend Julian Robertson, who went on to launch their own successful firms.
Viking Global, based in Greenwich, Connecticut, has grown into an investment powerhouse. Back in 2023, the firm delivered an impressive $6 billion in returns for its investors, ranking just behind heavyweights like Citadel and TCI. Much of this success came from smart bets on big names. In the same year, Halvorsen decided to reopen Viking Global’s long/short flagship fund to new investors. Over a decade ago, he had closed the fund, citing its size as a barrier to uncovering profitable trading opportunities.
That said, Halvorsen isn’t just about bullish bets. While long positions are Viking Global’s bread and butter, the firm has also employed strategies that allow it to profit from short positions during turbulent market years like 2020 and 2022. The billionaire firmly believes that effective and profitable trading requires careful analysis and disciplined, long-term valuation. This philosophy has shaped Viking Global’s portfolio into a balanced mix of both long-term and short-term investments. While his primary focus remains on long-term stakes in public and private companies, Halvorsen isn’t afraid to embrace “thoughtful risk-taking” to maximize returns. This balanced approach, combining strategic risk with a commitment to disciplined analysis, is at the heart of Viking Global’s success.
This year, Viking’s funds have been making a strong comeback. Its hybrid fund, Viking Global Opportunities, which invests in both public stocks and private companies, earned a modest 1% return in the third quarter, trimming its year-to-date losses to 1.6%. Meanwhile, its private-asset fund, Viking Global Opportunities Drawdown, gained 4.2% for the quarter, bringing its total return for the year to 8.3%. After a rough second quarter, these results show Viking is back on track and making waves in the investment world. Overall, as of Q3 2024, Halvorsen’s 13F portfolio reflects a strong focus on the healthcare, finance, services, and technology sectors. The portfolio’s total value stands at over $27.43 billion, marking a 1.05% increase compared to the previous quarter.
Andreas Halvorsen of Viking Global
Our Methodology
For this analysis, we examined Viking Global’s stock portfolio from the third quarter of 2024. The stocks are ranked based on the firm’s stake value in each holding.
Why are we interested in the stocks that hedge funds pile into? The reason is simple: our research has shown that we can outperform the market by imitating the top stock picks of the best hedge funds. Our quarterly newsletter’s strategy selects 14 small-cap and large-cap stocks every quarter and has returned 275% since May 2014, beating its benchmark by 150 percentage points (see more details here).
10. APi Group Corp. (NYSE:APG)
Viking Global’s Q3 Stake: $848.9 million
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 55
APi Group Corp. (NYSE:APG) is a leading safety services provider specializing in end-to-end integrated occupancy systems, including fire protection, HVAC, and entry systems. Its offerings span design, installation, inspection, and maintenance services, catering to customers across the energy, industrial, and commercial sectors.
On November 24, Baird raised its price target for APi Group Corp. (NYSE:APG) stock from $39 to $40, maintaining an Outperform rating. This revision followed analysts’ site visits and assessments of APG’s recent acquisition and its implications for growth. During these visits, Baird analysts engaged with APG field management and customers, marking the first investor-focused visit to Elevated, the company’s newly acquired elevator maintenance division. Baird highlighted that this acquisition significantly broadens APG’s service portfolio and establishes a promising platform for future mergers and acquisitions.
APi Group Corp. (NYSE:APG) also reported solid growth during its Q3 2024 earnings call. Revenue increased by 2.4% year-over-year to $1.83 billion, driven by organic growth within the Safety Services segment. Adjusted EBITDA grew by 9.4%, with the company reaffirming its commitment to achieving a 13% adjusted EBITDA margin by 2025. Despite project delays impacting revenues by approximately $150 million, APG remains optimistic about sustained growth and margin improvement. The company also reported an adjusted gross margin rise to 31% and a 9% year-over-year increase in adjusted diluted EPS, reaching $0.51.
9. Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT)
Viking Global’s Q3 Stake: $879.7 million
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 279
Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT), a global tech powerhouse, is known for its productivity software, cloud services, and personal computing solutions. Its offerings include Microsoft Teams, Microsoft 365, and Azure cloud services, among others. The tech giant has also partnered with Accenture and Avanade to help businesses modernize their operations using artificial intelligence and Microsoft Copilot.
In the fiscal first quarter of 2025, Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT) reported $65.5 billion in revenue, marking a 16% year-over-year increase, with net income rising 11% to $24.7 billion. The company credits its AI-driven transformation for enhanced workflows, operational efficiencies, and greater customer satisfaction. Its productivity and business processes segment posted 12% growth, generating $28.3 billion in revenue, with Microsoft 365 leading the charge, also reporting a 12% revenue increase.
On November 25, TD Cowen reiterated a Buy rating for Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT), maintaining a price target of $475. The update followed Microsoft’s Ignite conference, where the company introduced about 80 new products and features, many centered on advancing AI, including groundbreaking AI Agent capabilities.
Baron Opportunity Fund stated the following regarding Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT) in its Q3 2024 investor letter:
“Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT) is the world’s largest software and cloud computing company. Microsoft was traditionally known for its Windows and Office products, but over the last five years it has built a $147 billion run-rate cloud business, including its Azure cloud infrastructure service and its Office 365 and Dynamics 365 cloud-delivered applications. Shares gave back some gains from strong performance over the first half of this year. For the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2024, Microsoft reported a strong quarter with total revenue growing 16%, in line with the Street; Microsoft Cloud up 22%; Azure up 30%; 43% operating income margins; and 36% free cash flow margins. Core Azure growth came in one point shy of expectations, however, due to a soft European market and continued constraints on AI compute capacity. In the same vein, while Microsoft reiterated its fiscal 2025 targets of double-digit top-line and operating income growth, quarterly guidance called for Azure growth to slow a bit before accelerating in the back half of the fiscal year, as capital expenditures increase, yielding an expansion of AI compute capacity. We believe this investment is a leading indicator for growth, with more than half of the spend related to durable land and data center build outs, which should monetize over the next 15-plus years. We remain confident that Microsoft is one of the best-positioned companies across the overlapping software, cloud computing, and AI landscapes, and we remain investors.”
8. The Progressive Corporation (NYSE:PGR)
Viking Global’s Q3 Stake: $884.5 million
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 95
The Progressive Corporation (NYSE:PGR) is a leading insurance holding company offering personal and commercial auto insurance, as well as residential property coverage. By late 2022, it had established itself as the largest motor insurance provider in the U.S.
In the third quarter, The Progressive Corporation (NYSE:PGR) delivered strong financial results. The company reported GAAP earnings per share of $3.97, surpassing estimates by $0.08. Revenue reached $19.46 billion, marking a nearly 31% year-over-year increase and exceeding expectations by $400 million. The company also achieved a combined ratio of 89%, a key profitability and efficiency metric in the insurance industry.
On November 26, BMO Capital reaffirmed its positive outlook on The Progressive Corporation (NYSE:PGR), maintaining an Outperform rating with a price target of $273. However, the firm revised its forecast for the growth of Progressive’s personal auto policies in force for Q4. Originally expected to rise by 5%, the projection has been adjusted to a 3.8% increase, equating to approximately 877,000 new policies, down from the previously estimated 1,135,000.
Madison Sustainable Equity Fund stated the following regarding The Progressive Corporation (NYSE:PGR) in its Q3 2024 investor letter:
“The top contributors in the quarter were NextEra Energy, Oracle Corporation, The Progressive Corporation (NYSE:PGR), Equifax Inc., and United Healthcare. Progressive Corp continues to perform well in a strong personal auto market. August results were better than expected with strong margins and better than expected premium and Policy in Force growth.”
7. Fortive Corporation (NYSE:FTV)
Viking Global’s Q3 Stake: $931.1 million
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 31
Fortive Corporation (NYSE:FTV) focuses on delivering critical technologies for connected workflow solutions, encompassing the design, development, manufacturing, and distribution of professional and engineered products, software, and services.
In Q3 2024, Fortive Corporation (NYSE:FTV) demonstrated strong financial performance, with adjusted earnings per share climbing 14% and free cash flow growing by 12%. The Advanced Health & Sustainability Solutions (AHS) segment stood out, achieving 9% organic growth and a 310 basis point year-over-year improvement in operating margins. Meanwhile, the Product Realization (PT) segment experienced mixed results, with a 4% decline in core growth but a 70 basis point improvement in margins. Fortive’s free cash flow remains a bright spot, outperforming expectations, and the company is expected to prioritize share buybacks throughout fiscal year 2025.
On November 13, UBS initiated coverage of Fortive Corporation (NYSE:FTV) with a Neutral rating and set a price target of $84. UBS noted that Fortive’s relative valuation within the broader Electrical Equipment/Multi-Industry (EE/MI) complex has been under pressure. According to UBS, the decline in Fortive’s valuation began in 2021, coinciding with the market’s increased focus on secular trends such as artificial intelligence and nearshoring, which have drawn attention away from Fortive’s core offerings.
6. Spotify Technology S.A. (NYSE:SPOT)
Viking Global’s Q3 Stake: $949.9 million
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 98
Headquartered in Luxembourg, Spotify Technology S.A. (NYSE:SPOT) is a digital music streaming leader, celebrated for revolutionizing the music industry. Departing from traditional revenue models based on album sales and live performances, Spotify compensates artists based on song streams, reshaping how music is monetized.
In its efforts to expand its business model, Spotify Technology S.A. (NYSE:SPOT) recently launched the Spotify Partner Program, enabling creators to earn more from their audio and video content. The company also entered a partnership with Emirates, integrating Spotify’s media offerings into the airline’s in-flight entertainment system, further diversifying its reach.
Spotify’s third-quarter results showcased strong performance, with Monthly Active Users (MAUs) and Premium Subscribers aligning with market expectations. Revenue grew 18.5% year-over-year, reaching $16.8 billion, driven by an 11% increase in average revenue per user (ARPU) within the premium subscription segment. The platform added 14 million users, bringing its total user base to 640 million, and 6 million new subscribers, raising the total to 252 million. Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, Spotify Technology S.A. (NYSE:SPOT) forecasts further growth, projecting MAUs to reach 665 million and Premium Subscribers to climb to 260 million.
On December 2, Canaccord Genuity expressed continued confidence in Spotify Technology S.A. (NYSE:SPOT), raising its price target from $525 to $560. The firm’s optimism reflects Spotify’s strong November performance, where its stock surged approximately 24%, signaling sustained momentum and investor confidence in its growth trajectory.
5. Visa Inc. (NYSE:V)
Viking Global’s Q3 Stake: $963.9 million
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 165
Visa Inc. (NYSE:V), a global leader in digital payments, operates in over 200 markets, connecting 4 billion account holders to more than 130 million merchants and 14,500 financial institutions. As a key enabler of the global economy, Visa dominates the U.S. payments sector, holding 47% of all U.S. credit card outstanding balances and 52% of the U.S. credit card market.
Visa’s fiscal year 2024 concluded with impressive financial results, including $9.6 billion in net revenue—a 12% year-over-year increase—and a 16% rise in earnings per share, reaching $2.71 in Q4. The company plans to bolster its fraud prevention capabilities with the acquisition of Prosa and Featurespace in 2025, aiming to strengthen its operational framework further.
On October 30, Deutsche Bank reaffirmed its Buy rating for Visa Inc. (NYSE:V) and raised its price target from $300 to $340, citing strong fourth-quarter results and optimistic fiscal year 2025 guidance. The bank highlighted Visa’s resilient business model and its potential to capture greater growth, particularly with a potential economic recovery on the horizon. Deutsche Bank also maintained its fiscal year 2025 EPS estimate for the payments company and slightly adjusted its fiscal year 2026 projection to $12.79, introducing a fiscal year 2027 EPS estimate of $14.59.
Mar Vista Global Strategy stated the following regarding Visa Inc. (NYSE:V) in its Q3 2024 investor letter:
“After lagging the broader markets over the last one, three, and five years, we believe Visa Inc.’s (NYSE:V) stock now reflects a more conservative and realistic expectation for future cash flow growth. The electronic transaction toll-taker has long enjoyed a highly defensible network effect that connects global buyers and sellers and scale advantages that keep upstart competitors from disrupting the industry’s economics. At the same time, Visa directly benefits from the secular trend of replacing cash with e-payments. Penetration rates and transaction volumes in developed markets will inevitably slow over the next five years yet we expect Visa revenues to grow 8-10% over our investment horizon. Key value drivers remain global consumer spending growth, e-transaction penetration, “new flows” expansion in areas like business-to-business transactions, and lastly, value-added client service growth.
Visa’s dominant position is reflected in its nearly pristine financials: 68% operating margins, greater than 70% incremental operating margins and only 3-4% capital expenditures as a percent of sales. Awash in excess capital, Visa is one of the more aggressive purchasers of its own stock. Shares outstanding over the last fifteen years have declined by one-third and we expect the company to continue to repurchase 2-3% of shares outstanding annually. Since the 2016 acquisition of Visa Europe, total returns on capital have expanded from 25% to 50% and we expect the metric to approach 100% over the next five years as net operating profits expand roughly 60% on a flat capital base. Overall, Visa should compound per share intrinsic value at 10-13% over the next five years.”
4. Philip Morris International Inc. (NYSE:PM)
Viking Global’s Q3 Stake: $1.09 billion
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 75
Philip Morris International Inc. (NYSE:PM), a leading multinational tobacco corporation, operates in over 180 countries and is renowned for its flagship product, Marlboro, cementing its place among “Big Tobacco” leaders.
In its third-quarter earnings call, Philip Morris International Inc. (NYSE:PM) reported robust organic revenue growth and a notable year-over-year rise in adjusted diluted earnings per share. These results were driven by strong demand for its smoke-free products, IQOS and ZYN, alongside growth in the combustibles segment. IQOS volumes surged 15% year-over-year, with significant gains in Japan and Europe, while ZYN shipments in the U.S. grew by over 40%. The company also raised its full-year guidance, forecasting 2%-3% volume growth, 9.5% organic net revenue growth, and 14%-15% adjusted diluted EPS growth.
On October 30, Barclays reiterated its Overweight rating on the PM stock and raised its price target from $145 to $155. The firm views Philip Morris International Inc. (NYSE:PM) as the top-performing large-cap staple company, citing its fiscal year 2024 guidance. Expectations include 9.5% organic revenue growth, 14%-14.5% EBIT growth, and 14%-15% EPS growth excluding foreign exchange impacts. Despite a projected 6% FX headwind, EPS growth is estimated at approximately 9%, with potential to exceed 10% under more favorable FX conditions. A significant contributor to this optimism is ZYN’s strong performance in the U.S., which is expected to account for about 50% of the incremental EBIT growth and provide a meaningful boost to earnings.
3. Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL)
Viking Global’s Q3 Stake: $1.13 billion
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 158
Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL), renowned for its iconic iPhone, Mac computers, and iPads, also derives significant revenue from its services segment, which includes Apple Pay, the App Store, Apple Music, and iCloud.
On October 31, Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) announced a record fourth-quarter revenue of $94.9 billion, a 6% increase from the previous year, fueled by strong demand for the iPhone 16 series, Apple Watch Series 10, and AirPods 4. The company is also gearing up for the release of its 18.2 software update, which will introduce a range of AI-powered features and is expected to roll out to users soon. Additionally, the tech giant is expanding its services into new markets, with the highly anticipated launch of Apple Intelligence in China marking a significant step in its global growth strategy.
UBS analysts have adopted a cautiously optimistic stance on Apple’s iPhone 16, citing mixed demand signals and lukewarm interest in AI-related features, particularly outside of China. A UBS Evidence Lab survey revealed varying consumer sentiment across regions. In the U.S., purchase intent remained steady at 24%, while in China, it dipped to 17%, a 200-basis-point decline from 2023. However, Europe showed positive trends, with purchase intent rising in the U.K. by 200 basis points to 19% and in Germany by 300 basis points to 14%. Despite the tempered demand and skepticism toward AI features, UBS raised its global smartphone sell-in estimates to 1.21 billion units for 2024 and 1.24 billion units for 2025, indicating modest growth. On December 2, UBS maintained a $236 price target and a Neutral rating for AAPL shares, valuing the stock at 32 times its projected 2026 earnings per share of $7.49.
In its third quarter 2024 investor letter, Madison Investments said the following regarding Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL):
“Alphabet Inc., Eli Lilly and Company, Qualcomm Incorporated, Microsoft Corporation, and Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) were the largest detractors. Apple has been volatile in the last quarter but ended on strength. Early in the quarter, Apple benefited from the introduction of their AI strategy, Apple Intelligence. They followed in September with the new iPhone 16, which also created some excitement. We are underweight to Apple, which has resulted in a headwind for performance.”
2. Adobe Inc. (NASDAQ:ADBE)
Viking Global’s Q3 Stake: $1.35 billion
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 123
Adobe Inc. (NASDAQ:ADBE) is a global leader in software development, renowned for its cutting-edge digital media solutions. Its flagship products, such as Photoshop, Acrobat, and Adobe Creative Cloud, are indispensable tools in creative industries and businesses worldwide.
Earlier this October, Adobe Inc. (NASDAQ:ADBE) unveiled new beta features for Premiere Pro at the Adobe MAX conference in Miami Beach. These enhancements, powered by the Firefly Video Model, leverage generative AI to streamline workflows for video professionals. On December 2, DA Davidson reiterated its Buy rating for Adobe Inc. (NASDAQ:ADBE), citing the company’s strong margin profile, extensive scale, and the growth potential unlocked by its focus on artificial intelligence.
Moreover, Adobe Inc. (NASDAQ:ADBE) achieved a strong revenue in Q3 2024, reporting $5.41 billion, an 11% year-over-year increase, along with over $2 billion in cash flows. The Digital Media segment grew by 11% year-over-year, while the Digital Experience segment posted a 10% increase. The company’s management remains optimistic about sustained growth, highlighting the expansive markets the company continues to drive forward.
1. U.S. Bancorp (NYSE:USB)
Viking Global’s Q3 Stake: $1.53 billion
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 46
Headquartered in Minneapolis, Minnesota, and incorporated in Delaware, U.S. Bancorp (NYSE:USB) is one of the leading American bank holding companies. It operates as the parent organization of U.S. Bank National Association and is recognized among the largest banking firms in the country.
Citi analyst Keith Horowitz recently upgraded U.S. Bancorp (NYSE:USB) stock from Neutral to Buy, raising the price target significantly from $49 to $65. The stock had underperformed its peers due to concerns over a potential decline in return on tangible common equity (ROTCE), stemming from heightened investment spending, disappointing payment trends, and lower-than-expected net interest margin (NIM). However, Horowitz highlighted that the bank is making progress, with its investment spending now positioning the company for positive operating leverage as expense growth decelerates.
In Q3 2024, U.S. Bancorp (NYSE:USB) delivered robust results, reporting a net income of $1.71 billion, a 12.5% increase year-over-year, while diluted earnings per share rose to $1.03, compared to $0.91 in the same quarter last year. This strong performance was primarily driven by a 2.8% rise in net interest income, which reached $4.17 billion, supported by higher interest rates on earning assets and disciplined liability management. Although the quarter included $119 million in securities losses, these were largely offset by lower tax expenses due to favorable tax settlements.
Additionally, the bank maintained solid credit quality, aligning with expectations, and reinforced its capital position with a Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) capital ratio of 10.5%. U.S. Bancorp (NYSE:USB) remains focused on balancing capital growth through earnings accretion with capital distributions and has indicated plans to resume share buybacks in the near future.
While we acknowledge the potential of USB, our conviction lies in the belief that certain AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns, and doing so within a shorter timeframe. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than USB but that trades at less than 5 times its earnings, check out our report about the cheapest AI stock.
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