Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. (NYSE:NOG) Q2 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Nicholas O’Grady: Certainly, I mean to the extent that it continues at the pace it has, of course, I mean, I think we take it 1 well at a time, Charles. So I think we’ve been pretty conservative. And when I say we, I’ll give Jim 100% credit and his team. But — so well, maybe I’ll take credit on top of that on — but seriously, I think the answer is that we try really hard to take a conservative tact on performance and timing for that matter because timing does move all along — moves all around all the time. But I do think that we’ve been really encouraged really through every producing period on these assets of how the wells have performed even when there have been issues here and there like there always are on these things.

Really, I think the old adage is in real estate, it’s location, location, location. And I think it’s the same thing as it pertains to this asset, which is this is just a — this is a Ferrari assets sitting right in the heart of Midland County, no — virtually no vertical penetrations on the properties. It is just virgin incredible rock. And so the well performance, are we surprised? Not really, but also it’s a large project, and there’s a lot of logistical things going on, as you’ve noticed, and that’s why we’ve had to move some stuff around and learn as we go and try to find better ways to improve the returns. But overall, from a well performance perspective, I certainly think — I’ll let Jim add anything he wants, but I certainly think that we’re optimistic that we can see continued performance on the assets.

James Evans: Yes. I would just add the original expectation was that there was going to be another batch of wells getting completed in the third quarter coming online kind of towards the end of the third quarter. So what you see on that graph there for the daily production is ramping, that’s kind of the last batch of wells for this year. So even though it’s exceeding the original forecast, you kind of expect that to switch as you get that kind of towards Q3, Q4, where we recently thought there would be another batch of wells that ramp production further. We’ll continue to see the production kind of decline until we get to the end of 2023 and then that next big batch of wells will start coming online in Q1 and Q2 of next year, which will drive the capital efficiency going into 2024.

Operator: Our next question is from Donovan Schafer with Northland Capital Markets.

Donovan Schafer: First, I want to ask talking about well costs, I know for operators, they have the real direct relationship with the service providers and a lot of times, they negotiate that pricing ahead of time before you guys would even get the AFEs from them. But I am curious, being that you guys are really kind of charting the path on the non-operator business model and reaching such large scale. And you’ve talked a lot about tail advantages that you get. I’m curious if — as things stand today or maybe it’s the case where this is a potential thing in the future, could there be an evolution here? Or again, maybe you already hear where you’re able to get better pricing with service providers, as far as what ends up flowing through the AFE?

You can imagine a case where maybe an operator is dealing directly with the service providers. But if you add up your smaller minority interest, across all of your wells and your huge footprint, you could have a service provider that actually has more exposure to you in aggregate than they do to a single specific operator. So I’m just wondering, are you ever able to bring that to bear and get involved in that kind of level of conversation and negotiating pricing with the service providers. And if maybe not yet, is that something you would ever aspire to? Is there a way where that ever makes sense in kind of evolving the business model?

Nicholas O’Grady: I mean, Don, an interesting concept. The answer — the short answer is no. I mean I think the one thing I want to tell you is that the AFE is not necessarily like the — if Exxon is drilling a well for us, for example, the AFE is just an estimate, right? So it’s not always tied directly to their latest service contractor costs, which is why oftentimes, we can take the AFE at face value with the assumption that maybe in today’s environment that we’ll see savings on the back end or in a period like last year where we might have a different assumption of where that well is ultimately going to cost versus the AFE. So it is really an estimate in the — they try to have contingency pieces in them and all those things, but they’re not necessarily always leading edge, just like we didn’t really see in the first quarter that — a big change to those AFE costs, but there was an assumption that perhaps while those wells being completed, they would come in under budget effectively.

As to whether we could aggregate our interest and go tell the service providers to do something, the answer is no. I will tell you where we’re significant non-operators, oftentimes our credit profile is used to help the operating groups get a better term just because obviously, we’re a creditworthy counterparty or a rated entity and stuff like that. So in that respect, we have kind of flexed our muscle at time, especially with some of our smaller groups. But I don’t know if we could sit there and say, hey, we own 10% interest across all your wells and go to neighbors and help lower the rig rates. I don’t know if we’re there yet. But…