Nokia Oyj (NYSE:NOK) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

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Didier Scemama: Yeah. Thanks very much for taking my question. I guess, most of my questions have been asked. Well, I wondered, clearly, you’re taking very decisive actions on the cost base, I think, realizing that the RAN market is probably going to be in a downturn for the next several years and especially SCGs [ph] is quite far away. What I wondered is are there any other strategic alternatives you’re considering for the business? I think Simon asked a question earlier, whether you’re considering a breakup of the business to give more autonomy to your divisions, et cetera, because it feels like it’s not going to be fun to just cut costs the next several years?

Marco Wiren: You are absolutely right. You cannot run a business if your only strategy is to cut costs. But I want to repeat what I said earlier that, that when we are cutting costs, what is really important for us is that we do not sacrifice our R&D output because otherwise it would be just downsizing and downsizing and downsizing. When it comes to the question of structural moves like as you said, clearly that company, I already answered that what we are going to continue with is optimization of our portfolio and that is one of our strategic pillars. You have seen some moves already and we are not excluding that there would be additional moves going forward. It is part of our strategy as we announced already in Barcelona. But then I would like to slightly disagree with you that when you kind of concluded that the RAN market will be a declining market all the way until 6G, we do not agree.

25% of base stations outside of China are currently 5G mid-batch upgraded, which means that 75% of that potential is still there. If and when the data traffic will continue to grow, operators will have to start investing again. In a couple of years time, 5G advanced will hit the market, providing some significant additional new capabilities for new use cases, such as digital twins, drones, immersive applications, AR and so on. Roughly, at the same time comes the time when the first 5G installations that were made in 2019, 2020 will hit the mid-generation upgrade cycle as we have seen in the previous cycles as well. And the technology has improved so much from 2019 to 2020, especially in terms of power consumption that given the high power prices and ESG that most operators now have, we believe that there will be significant upgrade opportunities in mid-generation as well.

So – and then on top of this comes all the potential from private 5G and enterprise and all the use cases. So, respectfully, I would disagree with you that that this will be a declining market all the way until 6G.

Didier Scemama: I mean, respectfully also, I mean if you look at – when you look at the transition from 4G to 5G, we had I think, three years of downturn, and I think it was all about cost-cutting during that period, it was pretty painful. Also looking at, the history of Nokia and Alcatel-Lucent has been consistent cost cutting over the course of the last 15 years or so. It’s been quite difficult and the promises of things like LTE Advanced or 4.5G have not materialized. And as you said yourself, the problem fundamentally is that although 5G was great from a cost per bit standpoint for the operators, they have not been able to monetize their investments with higher ARPU, higher EBITDA. So ultimately, it’s got a knock-on effect on the ability to invest in CapEx. So that’s why I would rather not be too bearish, but at the same time I don’t see too much difference between 4G and 5G cycle if you know what I mean.

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