NIO Inc. (NYSE:NIO) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

William Li: Thank you for your question. Starting from the second quarter of this year, we are going to gradually launch and deliver all the products based on the new technology platform 2.0. When it comes to the total product portfolio, we can look at them into three different dimensions. The first one is the volume driver that is the ET5, ES6, and the ET5 Touring that we haven’t released, but I believe everyone knows. So, if we combine the ET5, ET5 Touring, and the ES6 together, we believe it’s possible for us to achieve 20,000 units per month if we consider the addressable market of– When it comes to the second dimension, that is the volume contributor that includes the ET7, ES7, and the ES8. We believe for those models; each model can achieve delivery volume around 2,000 to 4,000 per month.

And if we combine them together, and for this volume contributor segment, this property can contribute 8,000 to 10,000 units for overall vehicle delivery and sales. For the third dimension that is the brand shaper that is over Coupe SUV, the EC7 and the EC6 because coupe SUVs is a relatively niche market and we believe that this can probably help us to better showcase of a branded design and for those users who would like it to be different, and they want to show off their taste and their sense of design then probably they can choose this Brand Shaper products. Of course, we hope to sell more products including the Brand Shaper but this is a relatively niche market segment. So we believe, it’s a Brand Shaper that the EC7 and the EC6, are probably the volume is around 1,000 to 2,000 per month for each product.

So, if we look at the complete product portfolio of all those products, we believe those strong product portfolio and diversified product portfolio should be able to support us to achieve a volume of 30,000 units per month.

Steven Feng: Okay. Ian, this is Steven. I would like to answer your second question about the lithium price. First, it was a great that our GP margin is very sensitive to the lithium price. As you have mentioned, if they — lithium increased by RMB 100,000 per ton, our GP margin can be boosted by as high as 200% point — to point. So that means, we expect over brief this year there is a good chance that lithium carbonate price will trade to around RMB 200,000 per ton, and that will offset a good GP market elasticity for NIO. And if you look at the lithium carbonate price, in the past, it was just like around RMB 100,000 and then they picked around RMB 570,000 in November 2022, which increased the whole EV industry. And then from the beginning of this year, the lithium carbonate price, however, treated around RMB 400,000 per ton.

Looking forward on the supply side, as more — as several battery suppliers invested in the upstream raw material real efforts. And these efforts started to yield meaningful lithium carbonate supply from the second quarter of this year. So from a supply side, we do see a stable increase. On demand side, yes, that year, the China’s EV sales volume almost doubled. But if you look at this year, a good estimation is around 30%. So we expect the gap between the supply and demand will reduce significantly, which will lead to a lower and more recent lithium carbonate price around RMB 2,000 per ton. Last but not least, when we look at the production cost of lithium carbonate, if you look at the late plant cost, which is RMB 100,000 to RMB 150,000.

So a lithium carbonate price around RMB 200,000 per ton can offer a good profit room for such rapid lines supply to offer stable. So in short, if the recent come price will trade quite a lot this year, and that’s good for the whole industry.

Yuqian Ding: Thank you, Steven.

Operator: The next question comes from Paul Gong with UBS. Please go ahead.