New York Community Bancorp, Inc. (NYSE:NYCB) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

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Ebrahim Poonawala: I guess, given all the investments you’re making, and I think it all makes sense, is it fair to assume like that’s a steady state? Like you might get some savings towards the systems conversion next year, but then you’re also investing in the franchise?

Thomas Cangemi: That’s a fair statement, Ebrahim. We didn’t give out 2024 guidance, but you do have that — a lot of the system conversion will result in significant overlap on technology, as well as the benefits of the cost. Maybe John, if you want to add some more color to that.

John Pinto: Yeah, I think that’s right. You’ll see some of those that $125 million in savings, come through over the next couple of months as part of the process we’re going through. And then there’ll be more, as Tom just mentioned, that will come once the systems conversion is done in Q1 of 2024. So I think Ebrahim, you’re right, that makes a lot of sense as to where we can kind of see a steady state going forward, at least in 2023 and 2024.

Thomas Cangemi: So, Ebrahim, just to go back to the concept of the conversion. This is really a transformational transaction for the bank. We said that all along. We’re moving towards a commercial banking model. And with that commercial banking model, there are a lot of technology tools that we are going to implement as part of the combined NewCo. That’s what’s pushing out the diversion maybe a quarter or two, and that’s why we feel very confident that the date makes sense for us. This is not the historical NYCB thrift model; we are going to a commercial banking model with unique technology tools that are consistent with regional banks of our size.

Ebrahim Poonawala: Understood. That’s helpful. And just on a separate question. You gave the first quarter NIM guide. How do we think about the net interest margin on the two scenarios in a world where rates just stay higher for longer, how do you think the NIM plays out? And then, if rates get cut, do you still expect the balance sheet to be liability sensitive and benefit from — the NIM benefiting from rate cuts? Thanks.

Thomas Cangemi: Yes. I’ll start the conversation, I’m going to defer to John. But big picture, we’re assuming that we’re going to have probably two more hikes coming in the short term and probably a pause and probably — looking at the forward curve, an adjustment towards November is for the first cut. That’s really much playing through the forward curve. But the reality is that, where we stand today on positioning, we’re probably maybe 4%, 5%-ish liability census going into this most likely par situation in Q1. We have the capacity to move plus or minus 5% very easily. So, right now, just by putting the balance sheet together, without any restructuring, without any sales of assets, we’re sitting here just probably slightly liability sensitive and we have the ability to pivot very quickly. So maybe, John, if you want to add some more color towards the sensitivity on the market rates.

John Pinto: Yes. And just to highlight what Tom said, now that we’re not as significantly liability-sensitive as NYCB has been historically, it just gives us the opportunity to be able to manage towards a neutral-asset base depending on market conditions. So, slightly liability sensitive now. We are forecasting the two rate hikes in February and March, which is really what’s impacting the margin in 2023. That cut at the end of the year really doesn’t have much of an impact in the 2023 guide.

Ebrahim Poonawala: And Tom, you mentioned the restructuring of the balance sheet, like, should we be expecting any meaningful restructuring once there’s clarity on the path of Fed interest rates?

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