NatWest Group plc (NYSE:NWG) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

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Katie Murray: Sure, absolutely. Thanks, Fahed. So, a couple of things to think about on RWA’s, one, we still have 6 billion of RWA’s bolster, we’ll see them substantially roll off this year. What I said in terms of their guidance is, if you think of the impact of both process capacity, which we’ve yet to see come through, and the impact of Basel 3.1, you should think of that as 5% to 10% uplift from our . So we’re at 176. So 5% to 10% on that would be a bit shy of the number you’re suggesting. I would be mindful, obviously, at the end of 2024. The Basel requirements currently, as drafted need to be in place on 1 January, so you would expect to be holding a little bit more there rather than the occurring smoothly to the end of 2025. But there’s those few different things that are going on. But that 5% to 10% guidance, I think is very helpful. Just don’t forget about Ulster.

Operator: Our next question comes from Martin Leitgeb of Goldman Sachs.

Martin Leitgeb: And also, thank you for all the disclosure provided in the slide deck, which is really helpful. Just to follow up on probably the last one, I guess, a follow up on the kind of headwind assumption within an eye in terms of consumer solar deposit side, consumer behavior and what you have assumed. How quickly do you assume that this change in consumer behavior sort of shifted out of deposits in form of attrition or into other deposit products in form of migration to savings? So time deposits, how quickly would you expect that shift to happen? Would you expect everything to be pretty much front loaded into ’23? I mean, similar to other questions earlier today, I’m just trying to square up obviously, the NIM guidance, particularly considering the back end loaded nature of rate hikes in 4Q and obviously further rate hikes in 1Q, which would suggest quite a material headwind, particularly this year.

And then, secondly, on cost, just briefly, obviously, historically, very strong focus on reducing the absolute cost base of NatWest Group in terms of efficiency measures, should we assume this efficiency measures on now mostly done? So the cost base to grow broadly in line with inflation? Or do you still see scope for the cost base to lag behind inflation in terms of cost grow from here? Thank you.

Alison Rose: Well, look on. On consumer deposits, it’s very early days. What we’re seeing is, very strong funding and liquidity from our perspective. We’re seeing real stability in NIBs and NIBs. We are seeing customers engage more actively in their deposits, and we’ve got competitive rates. But I think it’s very early to say, obviously, there is, if you take a step back, there are excess deposits from post-COVID. People will increasingly spend those deposits. We’ll see more seasonality. Don’t forget seasonality and deposit flows. January is a big, big tax month. So you’ll definitely see a bit of activity in January, and then we expect it to return some more stable levels. But I think from our perspective, what I would say is, we have a very disciplined approach, we have very competitive products.

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