NatWest Group plc (NYSE:NWG) Q2 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

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Is that the right way to think about it that actually, the structural hedge benefits should be outweighing the mortgage pressures and the deposit forces at least the sort of short-term deposit forces around beat is catching up to a more sensible level sort of a bait. Thank you.

Katie Murray: Yes. So if I look deposits, the easy kind of answer is, let’s say Q3 is behaving as we expected it, two there’s nothing unusual within that we’re seeing good performance in the fixed term account, which is nice, is we’re pleased with. We’ve just also launched our into instant access, which is using our Ulster Bank, Northern Ireland brands, we’re expecting that to play a positive part in the mix, as we go through it’s literally been launched in the last couple of days. So I invite you to have a look at that. As we see, and we’ll talk more about that performance when we get to kind of Q3 but so far, it’s been very much in line with the messaging I’ve been kind of talking about. Chris, I’m probably going to give you a very similar answer that I gave you in Q1, I don’t really want to get drawn on our quarterly Q4 NIM forecasts.

But I think the things that we need to consider is this as well as I, what’s happening on base rates, the timing of them, is our assumption around the 5.5, right, will it go higher, pass through to customer deposit rates, if we are at that kind of peak kind of level. And then also just the mix and balances that we’ll see kind of going through? I think the hedge and the kind of marry more closely of the mortgage market margin is helpful to us that I think let’s talk more about ’24, when we get into ’24, if you don’t mind. So going to avoid giving you any views on that. Lovely. Thanks very much, Chris.

Operator: Thanks. Our next question comes from Robin Down of HSBC.

Robin Down: Just one really quick question. I would have asked this on Monday, but I’ve got to be wall crossed on HSBC. So I can’t ask them. The mortgage bank book spread, you’ve given us that number in the past, and this is quite useful to compare with kind of new business spreads. I can’t see it.

Katie Murray: I mean, let me give it to you. It says the Bank Group margin is 102%, down from 115 in Q1.

Robin Down: Great. And the new business, I think you were saying you were kind of [indiscernible] —

Katie Murray: I’m not going to give you that exact number. We can try to manage over time and given this is a multiyear product, I can get too obsessed by kind of quarterly moves. So managing to AT, I said we were a bit lower in the beginning of the quarter, we’re a bit better at the end. I think you can also, 102 I’ve given you, you can also calculate it on the fence up if you want. But that’s what the bank book is at the moment.

Operator: [Operator Instructions]. Our next question comes from Ed Firth of KBW.

Ed Firth: I had two questions, if that’s okay. I mean, the first one was just to explore. I think you made a comment about a 50% deposit beta was where you are running at today. I mean, if I look at your savings, by far and away, the biggest pool of savings is instant access. And I guess the biggest pool of that, again, by quite a large margin, as I understand it is less than £25,000, which you’re currently paying 1.4% on, which is so you’re making somewhere around a 3.6% spread on that, wish I’ve gone back 20 years, I don’t think I’ve ever seen a spread that big on customer savings. So I’m just trying to think in terms of your thing, I’m not asking you to tell me whether they — exactly how that’s going to move. But if we forget about rate changes, and just assume rate to stay flat here, or that you’d have 100% beta going forward, but is your general thinking that that 1.4% is a fair rate, and is sustainable, I guess, in a market where I mean, the biggest bank in the world is offering 3.8 today.

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