NatWest Group plc (NYSE:NWG) Q2 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Page 8 of 11

If I allude to kind of the loan growth piece, the remortgage spread is a bit lower than the new business. As you know, we manage around 80 basis points over time on a combined basis across the book. But I think that remortgage piece is obviously part of it, but then it’s lower LTV. So it’s also very good returns in terms of that piece just because of the amount of capital that it is doing. As I said earlier, in my speech, we were a bit lower on spreads at the beginning part of the quarter, just because of the move of the swap rates. But we’re back to where we wanted to be by the end. I do think you’re right, that the volume is a bit lower, most likely in sort of Q3 and Q4. But I think it’s really important to remember on mortgages, these are multi-year products for us.

We have sort of retention that’s in that 75% to 80%. So actually, the first year is important, but what’s really important is the second, the third and the fourth kind of renewal as well, which is there. And then if I just move on to NIBS. We are seeing some migration across the piece in our financial supplement, I show you the split of current accounts versus savings accounts across retail and private. I don’t show you that we are knowingly on the main section, but on the commercial section but you can kind of get a feel for that. But what we know that in the commercial piece is, you’re absolutely right. We’ve got very strong transactional accounts within there. So therefore they are themselves quite stable as we looked through on that piece, but you can see the kind of the fall off that we got in retail and private.

And then, they average the commercial piece of a bit more stable just because they’re so embedded in that kind of transactional saving piece. I think I’ve got all of them, Fahed. Let me know if I missed anything. Thank you.

Operator: Thank you. [Operator Instructions]. And we’re going to go across to Chris Cant of Autonomous.

Chris Cant: Good morning. Thanks for taking my question. Sorry, I was struggling with my other device. Can you hear me okay, now?

Katie Murray: Yes. Perfect, Chris. That’s great. Thank, I’m glad you got through.

Chris Cant: Two sort of follow up questions, really? Firstly, there was an earlier question around trends on deposits during July. I’m just conscious you did also hike your fixed term deposit rates in response to the swap moves in June. And just keen to understand whether what we’re seeing as we look into the third quarter is a continuation of trends you’d already been seeing during the second quarter or whether you are actually seeing accelerating terming out obviously, you’ve given us the sort of deposit split at the end of 2Q, but conscious that could be sort of accelerating potentially into 3Q. So any further commentary there would be helpful. And then, I also just wanted to return to a comment you made Katie around peak NIM.

I mean, the idea of peak NIM has sort of, I think been plaguing the U.K. banks broadly for a little while now. And I guess it comes down in part to the timing of the different pressures puts and takes on the NII line. In the short-term, you’re obviously seeing this beat catch up you’ve referred to during the second quarter. But as we look into ’24, I think you’re sort of indicating actually the net of forces may then become a net positive relative to where we’re exiting this year, just in terms of fewer mortgage pressures, deposit trends stabilizing, and then this very material structural hedge benefit still to come through. I think I asked you a similar question on the one 1Q call. But if I could invite you to talk about that, again, based on sort of stable-ish base rates or something close to your trajectory into ’24.

Page 8 of 11