NatWest Group plc (NYSE:NWG) Q2 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

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Katie Murray: I think the other thing to think about in terms of the margin of courses we’ll also have is, so the hedge will work certainly, but we’re also in our own economics, assuming that they kind of rate start to fall a little bit as well. So in terms of that piece, probably not going to try to give you know, I don’t like giving you quarterly views on them. So I’m not going to try to give you one into next year, sort of six or nine quarters away from here. But I do think often we talk about, are we at peak NIM? I actually think it’s — for me, as I look at my kind of income as I go forward from here, I think there are reasons that, you can feel sort of quietly positive about that, in terms of that strong income tailwind, we’ve already had from the hedge.

The unwind of the mortgage piece, I’ve spoken about already. And that is a positive for us as we move forward. I think the level of lending we are in our economics, predicting growth, it’s not huge growth, but we are certainly forecasting that growth within there. And I do think the deposit stabilizing is there. So in the medium term, feel comfortable that we got real growth in that kind of income. I think the short-term dynamic of customer behavior, we’re watching very closely. And the exact timing of when that moves in 23 into 24. Is something I’m sure we’ll talk about more in Q3 and Q4. But certainly in the medium term, those other things are quite positive for income. Thanks, Jonathan.

Operator: Thank you very much. Our next question comes from Guy Stebbings of BNP Paribas Exane.

Guy Stebbings: One, on mortgages, then one back on deposits, that’s right. So I guess you’re growing quite strong, actually mortgages relative to many of your peers in what is quite a tough volume and spread backdrop. So can you talk about your approach there and how you weigh up, spreads versus volumes, whether you’re driven by return hurdles, or volume metrics, or market share or a combination of all three. And also, what you’re seeing in terms of customary payments of balances right now and sort of mix of lending between internal refinancing versus new-to-bank. And then on deposits? Thanks for the comments. And thanks for Slide 8, not everyone gives that kind of granularity and it is appreciated. I just wonder if I could maybe push you on that, dip movement from 40% to 37%. Do you have any updated views as to where that might eventually settle? Thank you.

Katie Murray: Sure. Thanks. So I’ll contact. Let me start with mortgages. So if I look at our mortgages, clearly, we manage this Group on income and royalty. So therefore, we will make decisions and given if you think the mortgages, we try to manage on 80 basis points. So as we write more mortgages, that’s going to pull your NIM down a little bit. So we’re comfortable on that, because we’re very much looking at the income and the royalty aspect of that, and the team would be very much looking to manage that piece. What we do see is that during the second quarter, the [indiscernible] curves did remove really quickly. And so therefore, there would have been a period we were writing below where we’d necessarily wanted to write, overall, still hurdling our metrics, but not kind of at that 80 basis point level that we talked to.

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