National Vision Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:EYE) Q3 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

Reade Fahs: We believe just despite the exam capacity issue, which is where we spend a lot of our time that we are holding our own from a market share perspective.

Kate McShane: Okay. And my follow-up is on the exam capacity. I think this was part of Adrienne’s earlier question, but is there any way you can compare where you are today with exam capacity to where you were when you first started the issue in Q1? And is there any way to quantify the recruitment class and what you were able to recruit from this year’s optometry graduates versus maybe the previous year?

Reade Fahs: We don’t quantify this for competitive reasons. Our recruitment of new grads was very strong and very healthy and up versus prior year. And again, our retention rate of optometrists overall is higher than last year also. And yes, so we are expecting capacity to gradually improve into 2023 and throughout next year.

Operator: Our next question comes from the line of Simeon Gutman of Morgan Stanley.

Michael Kessler: This is Michael Kessler on for Simeon. First, I wanted to follow up on some of the prior questions on top line and the trends that you’re seeing. I think you said on Q4 comp guidance, it looks like more improvement on both a 1-year and a 3-year basis. So I’m just wondering, I guess, what you’re seeing quarter-to-date, are you seeing the trade down continuing, further accelerating anything on the low income side as well, if that’s at all changing as we’ve seen some gyrations in the macro? And then I guess if you carry forward the run rate on the Q4, it looks like maybe next year, it could definitely flip back to positive comps. Is that fair? Is that kind of how you’re just preliminarily thinking about the ’23 outlook?

Reade Fahs: Good. In Q4, overall, I mean, we don’t think the economy is going to turn around radically in Q4 in a way that will affect our consumers. Our comps are expected in the negative low- to mid-single digit range. Slightly easier Q4 comparison and better holiday calendar and up against some COVID. We had — at the end of Q3, we had Hurricane Ian really whack us in Florida over 100 stores, and we’ll get some of that back. And again, the fact that we’ve got many remote-enabled stores should be helped as well, as well as sort of the trade down.

Patrick Moore: And then just to add a couple of comments. On the 3-year stack in agreement, where our guidance suggests that’s going to pop back up a bit in Q4. So we’re with you there, Michael. We saw a little more depressed in Q3, a little — not negative, but a smaller number coming off Q2. And we believe that was principally related to how the back-to-school seasons have fared across pandemic. We’ll probably not discuss. We’re not going to discuss guidance for next year today. The entire management team is focused on making 2023 as a greater a year as it can be, and we’ll be talking about that in February.

Michael Kessler: Okay. Great. And I’m sorry if I missed this. I think you mentioned that the ticket being like relatively flat. Just any update on inflation and pricing and the backdrop and how you guys are approaching it?

Patrick Moore: We’ve been really pleased with how ticket has progressed for the last year. We saw the bottoming of the pandemic era impact to ticket. We saw that flatten in late November, early December last year. We’ve made a couple of pricing changes around the edge. We took the base offer in AB & EGW up. We have seen good results from all of that net-net and are happy with where ticket has evolved and is evolving. Coming off, if you go back to ’19, I won’t give the percentage, but that’s one of those reasons that I mentioned that we’ve been able to overcome some of the headwinds in gross margin, and we’ve been really pleased with where that has trended.