And I expect in 2025, you probably see a little bit higher level. Our exit rate in Eagle Ford at the end of 2024, ought to be quite a bit higher than we saw in 2023 due to the timing of the new well delivery. And you ought to see us, as we’ve said for several years now, managed Eagle Ford in a 30,000 to 35,000 barrel a day range with pretty consistent CapEx. We are really excited about this new rig we picked up. It’s just flying through the first lateral and happy to see that. And hopefully, we can see additional operational improvements and capital efficiencies there as we progress through the year.
Leo Mariani: Thank you. That’s very clear. Appreciate it.
Operator: Thank you. Your next question is from Paul Cheng from Scotia Bank. Please ask your question.
Paul Cheng: Hey good morning guys. Two quick ones. Maybe the first one is for Tom, just to maybe remind us. On the cash payout, when you calculate it, is it your estimate for the full year and then you provided or that you just do it quarter-by-quarter. The second question, I was looking at your last quarter presentation. You are looking for 2023 to 2025 at about $900 million now that you say in 2024 to 2026 is $1.1 million. Now obviously, that’s a 1-year change, but I don’t think that really make the difference. Your production outlook is largely about the same. So — and you just mentioned that Vietnam is really [indiscernible] to you, only about 300. So is there any other areas that we should be aware why that the increase in budget?
Thomas Mireles: Okay. Thanks, Paul. I’ll talk about the first one on how we’re executing our framework, which we’re really pretty excited about how we’ve moved into 2.0, and we’re more than halfway through it. We do think about this in terms of hitting our annual targets here for our debt target. So quarter-by-quarter, as we’ve disclosed, our CapEx is front loaded. So we’re not going to — we’ll see more of our adjusted free cash flow towards the back end of the year. But we do monitor it quarter-by-quarter to see if there’s an opportunity to do something to execute part of our framework. But really, it is something that we’re looking at on an annual basis to make sure we try to stay in line with our commitment to returns to shareholders.
Paul Cheng: So Tom, if I get it correctly, it means that in any particular quarter, you may buy back more or less than the 25% that the current indicator would suggest, right?
Thomas Mireles: That’s right. Yes. You’ll see some — you may see some fluctuations there and try to hit that annual number for us.
Roger Jenkins: We’re not afraid, Paul, to buy stock on our revolver if we get separated from the group or the pack here because our company is a very solid company with incredible cash returns. Let me take a stab at the LRP — long-range plans, what we call it. Thanks for that question, fair question. On the CapEx side, yes, it’s higher. During this period, last year, we didn’t have enough for exploration and to improve our exploration business, we need to build a portfolio that allows us a mixture of lower risk and higher risk throughout the year and also lower risk and high risk as to cost. These big 33,000 foot wells in the Gulf are very expensive. In other parts of the world, they’re much less expensive. And on the risk side.
We have a much lower risk exploration portfolio this year. So we’ve added over $40 million a year during this 3-year period for exploration. On the cash flow side, we’ve lowered our gas prices in the plan that’s footnoted and we’re also executing a $300 million project in Vietnam. And it’s just a relook at the cost. And if you look at production, let’s just be honest, Terra Nova is supposed to be up and running last March, it’s not. And then you have to start off now and ramp that up. St. Malo incredible field just drilled an incredible production well there. The oil in place at St. Malo continues to increase, probably one of the top assets in the world, but the project is very late. So the CapEx has been spent. The production has been delayed.
They’re just now putting on the water injection equipment. So when you add all this up, you have a similar production result, but very, very same on oil. Very similar on the oil side to last year and more spending. But our 2027, 2028, 2029 is more robust and better than it was and leading to still a large amount of free cash flow approaching our yesterday market cap, in fact. And so there, we have it on that, Paul. But just every year, the plan gets better, things happen, things change in phasing. We deal with a lot of non-op big projects like Terra Nova and St. Malo and Lucius with Occidental. And nothing’s changed. We added up, put it back together. But at the end of the day, production is an outcome, and we’re focusing on free cash flow and returning to shareholders and we have an outstanding ability to have free cash flow very similar to last year’s plan.
So we focus on that, not the little ins and outs on small variances in production. That’s an outcome for us, not an input. So my treasurer tell me that yesterday, great line. So that’s what we’re doing on that, Paul.
Paul Cheng: Thank you.
Roger Jenkins: Appreciate all the years. Thank you.
Operator: Thank you. Your next question is from Charles Meade from Johnson Rice. Please ask your question.
Roger Jenkins: Good morning, Charles.
Charles Meade: Good morning Roger, to you and your team. Thank you. Roger, I wanted to ask — thanks for giving us that $300 million debt reduction target for 2024 and we can do that math that will get you to Murphy 3.0, but you could start on that today with just the cash on your balance sheet. So can you — can you give us some insight on how you’re thinking about the timing of that $300 million in debt reduction?
Roger Jenkins: It will be later this year and throughout the year. But I’ll let Tom walk you through that, Charles a little bit here.
